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Estimating Parametric Models of Probability Distributions

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  • Dilip B. Madan

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

Noting that risk neutral distributions are estimated by minimizing the squared deviations between market and model option prices we consider using option payoff moments in estimating distributional parameters from a sample of observations. It is observed, in particular when compared to maximum likelihood estimation, that digital option payoff moments yield the lowest chisquare statistics for a test of uniformity for data transformed to the unit interval by the estimated distribution function.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip B. Madan, 2015. "Estimating Parametric Models of Probability Distributions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 823-831, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:17:y:2015:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-014-9409-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-014-9409-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    4. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    5. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    6. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    7. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    8. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Buchmann & Kevin W. Lu & Dilip B. Madan, 2019. "Calibration for Weak Variance-Alpha-Gamma Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1151-1164, December.
    2. Boris Buchmann & Kevin W. Lu & Dilip B. Madan, 2018. "Calibration for Weak Variance-Alpha-Gamma Processes," Papers 1801.08852, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    3. Dilip B. Madan & King Wang, 2022. "Two sided efficient frontiers at multiple time horizons," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 327-353, September.
    4. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens, 2020. "Self‐similarity in long‐horizon returns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1368-1391, October.

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