- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
"Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
"Economic Forecasting,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007.
"Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Graham Elliott & Ulrich K. Müller, 2006.
"Efficient Tests for General Persistent Time Variation in Regression Coefficients,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 907-940, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by:
- Ted Juhl & Zhijie Xiao, 2009.
"Tests for Changing Mean with Monotonic Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
709, Boston College Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Bussière, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2009.
"Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy – the role of emerging market economies,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
25/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2008.
"Which Structural Parameters Are "Structural"? Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Economic Models,"
Working Papers
08-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2008.
"On the Usefulness or Lack Thereof of Optimality Criteria for Structural Change Tests,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
wp2008-006, Boston University - Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005.
"Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank,"
NBER Working Papers
11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: - Ted Juhl & Zhijie Xiao, 2008.
"Tests For Changing Mean With Monotonic Power,"
WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS
200809, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
[Downloadable!]
- Elliott, Graham & Pesavento, Elena, 2006.
"On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1405-1430, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by:
- Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003.
"Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle,"
University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series
2003-07, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson & Elena Pesavento, 2005.
"Optimal Power for Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors With Known Parameters for Nonstationarity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 34-48, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2005.
"Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching ,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1081-1102, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Graham Elliott, 2005.
"Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by:
- Clements, Michael P., 2008.
"Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007.
"What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005.
"Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
127, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:- Carlos Capistrán, 2006.
"Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?,"
Working Papers
2006-14, Banco de México.
[Downloadable!]
- Carlos Carmona, 2005.
"Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
2005-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
- Capistrán, Carlos, 2008.
"Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Clements, Michael P, 2006.
"Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009.
"A defence of the FOMC,"
Economics Series Working Papers
457, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009.
"Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function,"
Macroeconomics and Finance Series
200905, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - George A. Christodoulakis, 2005.
"The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality under Asymmetric Preferences,"
Working Papers
30, Bank of Greece.
[Downloadable!]
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009.
"Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data,"
KOF Working papers
09-215, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006.
"Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss,"
Working Papers
w0092, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006.
"Forecasting professional forecasters,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!]
- G. A. Christodoulakis & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2009.
"Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 583-606.
[Downloadable!]
- George Christodoulakis & Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2008.
"Asymmetries in the sport-forward G10 exchange rates: an answer to an old puzzle?,"
Discussion Paper Series
2008_12, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
[Downloadable!]
- Marcella Niglio, 2007.
"Multi-step forecasts from threshold ARMA models using asymmetric loss functions,"
Statistical Methods and Applications,
Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 395-410, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004.
"Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham & Granger, Clive W.J., 2004.
"Evaluating significance: comments on "size matters","
The Journal of Socio-Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 547-550, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by:
- Kevin D. Hoover & Mark V. Siegler, 2005.
"Sound and Fury: McCloskey and Significance Testing in Economics,"
Econometrics
0511018, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003.
"Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by:
- Michael Jansson & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2009.
"Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
CREATES Research Papers
2009-37, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Martin Browning & Mette Ejrnaes & Javaier Alvarez, 2006.
"Modelling income processes with lots of heterogeneity,"
Economics Series Working Papers
285, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003.
"Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle,"
University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series
2003-07, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2004.
"More on F versus t tests for unit roots when there is no trend,"
Economics Bulletin,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(37), pages 1-6.
[Downloadable!]
- Bunzel, Helle & Enders, Walter, 2005.
"Is the Taylor Rule Missing? A Statistical Investigation,"
Staff General Research Papers
12301, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
- Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2006.
"Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union,"
Working Paper Series
574, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008.
"A Powerful Tuning Parameter Free Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Working Papers
1175, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Steve Leybourne & David Harvey, 2003.
"On Unit Root Tests and the Initial Observation,"
Econometrics
0311006, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007.
"Asymptotics for Stationary Very Nearly Unit Root Processes,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1607, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Patrick Marsh, .
"The Available Information for Invariant Tests of a Unit Root,"
Discussion Papers
05/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
[Downloadable!]
- Steven Cook, 2005.
"Estimating the autoregressive parameter: recursive mean adjustment and the initial condition,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 203-206, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2008.
"Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and Feasible GLS Statistics in an AR(1) Model with Conditional Heteroskedaticity,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1665, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
- Steven Cook, 2004.
"On the finite-sample power of modified Dickey-Fuller tests: The role of the initial condition,"
Economics Bulletin,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(11), pages 1-9.
[Downloadable!]
- Michael Jansson, 2007.
"Semiparametric Power Envelopes for Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
CREATES Research Papers
2007-12, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008.
"A Powerful Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based on a Tuning Parameter Free Statistic,"
Working Papers
1185, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:- Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008.
"A Powerful Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based on a Tuning Parameter Free Statistic,"
CREATES Research Papers
2008-36, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
- Nielsen, Morten ?rregaard, 2009.
"A Powerful Test Of The Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based On A Tuning Parameter Free Statistic,"
Econometric Theory,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1515-1544, December.
[Downloadable!]
- Fabio Busetti & Silvia Fabiani & Andrew Harvey, 2006.
"Convergences of prices and rates of inflation,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
575, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Steven Cook, 2004.
"Detecting changes in persistence in linear time series,"
Economics Bulletin,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(24), pages 1-11.
[Downloadable!]
- Donggyu Sul, 2005.
"New Panel Unit Root Tests under Cross Section Dependence for Practitioners,"
Econometrics
0506010, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
- Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2004.
"Nonlinearly testing for a unit root in the presence of a break in the mean,"
MPRA Paper
678, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2005.
[Downloadable!]
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2008.
"Unit Root and Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is in the Infinite Past,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1655, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
- Alina Spiru, 2007.
"Inflation convergence in the new EU member states,"
Working Papers
005221, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
[Downloadable!]
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007.
"Hybrid and Size-Corrected Subsample Methods,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1606, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots with stationary covariates,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 75-89, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, 2000.
"Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariances,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
2000-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, .
"Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates,"
Economics Working Papers
2000-6, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, 2002.
"Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
2000-06r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham, 2002.
"Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists',"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-539, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by:
- Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009.
"A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data,"
MPRA Paper
13383, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2009.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005.
"A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: - Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009.
"Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data,"
MPRA Paper
17856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
- Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 2001.
"Confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 155-181, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham, 2000.
"Estimating Restricted Cointegrating Vectors,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 91-99, January.
Other versions:
- Graham Elliott, 1999.
"Estimating Restricted Cointegrating Vectors,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
99-22, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
- Graham Elliott, 1999.
"Estimating Restricted Cointegrating Vectors,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
1999-22, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham, 1999.
"Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999.
"Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1998.
"Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange Rate Market,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
98-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
- Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1998.
"Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange rate Market,"
Discussion Paper Series
a347, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Graham Elliott & TAKATOSHI ITO, 1998.
"Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange Rate Market,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
1998-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
See citations under working paper version above.
- Graham Elliott, 1998.
"On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham & Fatas, Antonio, 1996.
"International business cycles and the dynamics of the current account,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 361-387, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Graham Elliott & Antonio Fatas, 1996.
"International Business Cycles and the Dynamics of the Current Account,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
96-07, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Elliott, Graham & Fatás, Antonio, 1995.
"International Business Cycles and the Dynamics of the Current Account,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1280, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
See citations under working paper version above.
- Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995.
"Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors,"
Econometric Theory,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994.
"Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown,"
Econometric Theory,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: See citations under working paper version above.
- Edey, Malcolm & Elliott, Graham, 1992.
"Some Evidence on Option Prices as Predictors of Volatility,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 567-78, November.
Cited by:
- Owain Ap Gwilym, Mike Buckle, 1999.
"Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle,"
European Journal of Finance,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)