IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbs/wpaper/2009-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Estefanía Mourelle

Abstract

In this paper we aim at testing the inflation persistence hypothesis as well as modelling (using logistic smooth transition autoregressive, LSTAR, models) the long run behaviour of inflation rates in a pool of African countries. In order to do so, we rely on unit root tests applied to nonlinear models, i.e. Kapetanios et al. (2003). The results point to the non-persistence of inflation hypothesis for most of the countries. In addition, the estimated models are stable in the sense that the variable tends to remain in the regime (low inflation or high inflation) once reached and changes between regimes are only achieved after a shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2009/2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/310308/Inflation-persistence-and-asymmetries.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2007. "Inflation in the West African Countries. The Impact of Cocoa Prices, Budget Deficits, and Migrant Remittances," Economics Series 219, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    4. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    6. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    7. Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-378, July-Aug..
    8. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    9. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.
    10. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
    11. Byers, J D & Peel, D A, 2000. "Non-linear Dynamics of Inflation in High Inflation Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 23-37, Supplemen.
    12. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
    13. Luis Arango & Andres Gonzalez, 2001. "Some evidence of smooth transition nonlinearity in Colombian inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 155-162.
    14. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    15. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Stationarity Of Inflation: New Results From An Estar Unit Root Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 309-322, October.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    17. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    18. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 202-241, April.
    19. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    20. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, September.
    21. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November.
    22. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    23. Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn & Nadir Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-339, September.
    24. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    25. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a random walk?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 243-258.
    26. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    27. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    28. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2005. "Modeling The Non-Linear Behaviour of Inflation Deviations From The Target," Working Papers 2005_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    29. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in the Franc Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(4), pages 600-634, August.
    30. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    31. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2008. "Testing for stationarity of inflation in Central and Eastern European Countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/13, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    32. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.
    33. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    34. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    35. Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    36. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    37. Sensier, Marianne & Osborn, Denise R & Ocal, Nadir, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-339, September.
    38. Taylor, John B., 1985. "What would nominal GNP targetting do to the business cycle?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-84, January.
    39. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 161-187, May.
    2. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2009. "Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Non-linear? What does Empirical Evidence Reveal?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2492-2504.
    3. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Estefania Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Alberiko Gil‐alana, 2011. "Is There An Asymmetric Behaviour In African Inflation? A Non‐Linear Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 68-90, March.
    2. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
    3. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2008. "Testing for stationarity of inflation in Central and Eastern European Countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/13, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2013. "Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1229-1243, September.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a random walk?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 243-258.
    7. José Cancelo & Estefanía Mourelle, 2005. "Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 135-147, May.
    8. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
    9. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    10. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Stationarity Of Inflation: New Results From An Estar Unit Root Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 309-322, October.
    11. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2011. "Investigating the oil price-exchange rate nexus: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers 2011015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
    12. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
    13. Li, Yushu & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Testing for Unit Root against LSTAR Model: Wavelet Improvement under GARCH Distortion," CAFO Working Papers 2009:6, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    14. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
    15. Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Tang, D.P., 2013. "Revisiting the mean reversion of inflation rates for 22 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 245-252.
    16. Rabah Arezki & Kirk Hamilton & Kazim Kazimov, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Macroeconmic Stability and Growth: The Role of Political Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3678, CESifo.
    17. Rabah Arezki & Klaus Deininger & Harris Selod, 2012. "What drives the global rush?," NCID Working Papers 02/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    18. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    19. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:135-147 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    21. Rob Ackrill and Simeon Coleman, 2012. "Inflation dynamics in central and eastern European countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2012/01, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Persistence; Unit Roots; Nonlinearities.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2009/2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: King Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/nbs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.