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China, Commodity Prices and Latin American Performance: A Few Stylized Facts

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Author Info
Sergio Lehmann
David Moreno
Patricio Jaramillo

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Abstract

The Chinese economy has shown an average annual growth rate of 10% per year during the last 20 years, transforming it into the most important consumer of a broad range of commodities. With this in sight, this work aims to measure the impact of China’s expansion on commodity prices and illustrate how Latin American economies are affected. One of the main findings is a positive and significant relation between China’s industrial production and the evolution of prices of metals, fuels and to a lesser extent, grains and other farm commodities. In general, Latin America economic cycles are related with commodity prices and China’s economic activity in a positive manner.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 424.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:424

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  1. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Econometric modelling of non-ferrous metal prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(5), pages 651-701, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Roberto Álvarez & Sebastián Claro, 2006. "The China Phenomenon: Price, Quality or Variety?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 411, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yongzheng Yang, 2003. "China's Integration into the World Economy: Implications for Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/245, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mauricio Mesquita Moreira, 2004. "Fear of China: Is there a future for manufacturing in Latin America?," Development and Comp Systems 0412008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Pär Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy & Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2006. "Angel or Devil? China's Trade Impact on Latin American Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 252, OECD Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kaplinsky, Raphael, 2006. "Revisiting the revisited terms of trade: Will China make a difference?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 981-995, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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