IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/chb/bcchec/v9y2006i1p49-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign Spreads: a Factorial Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Selaive C.
  • Valentín Délano T.

Abstract

This paper explores and estimates idiosyncratic and global factors that affect the evolution of sovereign spreads in emerging economies, with an emphasis on the Chilean case, for the period from January 1998 to September 2005. We find that a small number of global factors explain a large part of the sovereign spreads’ variability. In line with certain differentiation of international investors toward investment-grade economies, global factors seem to account for a smaller proportion of the sovereign spreads’ variability in these economies. In addition, we find that the recent reduction in Chile’s country risk can be explained by the evolution of both the idiosyncratic factor determined in principle by robust macrofinancial fundamentals and—mainly—of the global factors associated with world growth projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Selaive C. & Valentín Délano T., 2006. "Sovereign Spreads: a Factorial Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:9:y:2006:i:1:p:49-67
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/revista-economia/2006/abr/Vol9N1abr2006pp49_67.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky & Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 2005/083, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1993. "The Comovement of Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1073-1104.
    3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    4. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    5. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A New Look at Panel Testing of Stationarity and the PPP Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 467, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    11. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    12. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    13. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
    14. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    15. Francis In & Victor Fang & Rob Brown, 2004. "Australian and US interest rate swap markets: comparison and linkages," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(1), pages 45-56, March.
    16. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    17. Patrick McGuire & Martijn A Schrijvers, 2003. "Common factors in emerging market spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    18. Álvaro Aguirre R. & Luis Felipe Céspedes C., 2004. "Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 274, Central Bank of Chile.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorge Selaive C., 2006. "Premio Soberano: Efecto de Movimientos en las Tasas de Interés Internacionales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(2), pages 73-80, August.
    2. Donggyu Sul, 2005. "New Panel Unit Root Tests under Cross Section Dependence for Practitioners," Econometrics 0506010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 253-294.
    4. Martin Wagner, 2008. "On PPP, unit roots and panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 229-249, September.
    5. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre, 2009. "Structural Changes, Common Stochastic Trends, and Unit Roots in Panel Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(2), pages 471-501.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    7. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    8. Claude Lopez, 2009. "A Panel Unit Root Test with Good Power in Small Samples," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 295-313.
    9. Marcus Kappler, 2009. "Do hours worked contain a unit root? Evidence from panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 531-555, June.
    10. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:38:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    13. Wang, Shaoping & Wang, Peng & Yang, Jisheng & Li, Zinai, 2010. "A generalized nonlinear IV unit root test for panel data with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 101-109, July.
    14. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    15. Das, Samarjit & Bhattacharya, Kaushik, 2004. "Price Convergence across Regions in India," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 1/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    16. Cristina Brasili & Luciano Gutierrez, 2004. "Regional convergence across European Union," Development and Comp Systems 0402002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kirstin Hubrich & Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2000. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600037, EcoMod.
    18. Christoph Hanck, 2013. "An Intersection Test for Panel Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 183-203, February.
    19. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependencies: Comparison and Implications for Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 111-145, April.
    20. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2013. "Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 735-756, October.
    21. Joakim Westerlund & Johan Blomquist, 2013. "A modified LLC panel unit root test of the PPP hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 833-860, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:9:y:2006:i:1:p:49-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fredherick Sanllehi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.