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Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Motohiro Yogo

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Abstract

Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid inference and an efficient test of predictability that corrects this problem. Although the conventional t-test is invalid for the dividend-price and smoothed earnings-price ratios, our test finds evidence for predictability. We also find evidence for predictability with the short rate and the long-short yield spread, for which the conventional t-test leads to valid inference.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10026.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10026

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C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 36-58. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christopher Polk & Samuel Thompson & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "New Forecasts of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2003. "Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios," Working papers 4374-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  6. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:672-700 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christopher L. Cavanagh & Graham Elliott & James Stock, 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-29, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  15. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Markku Lanne, 2002. "Testing The Predictability Of Stock Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 407-415, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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