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Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Valentina Corradi
Norman R. Swanson
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We introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out-of-sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting among multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we compare the finite sample properties of our block bootstrap procedures with the parametric bootstrap due to Kilian ("Journal of Applied Econometrics" 14 (1999), 491-510), within the context of encompassing and predictive accuracy tests. In the empirical illustration, it is found that unemployment has nonlinear marginal predictive content for inflation. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review .
Volume (Year): 48 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 67-109
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:1:p:67-109Contact details of provider: Postal: 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297 Phone: (215) 898-8487 Fax: (215) 573-2057 Email: Web page: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/econ/iereview/ More information through EDIRC
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