This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Valentina Corradi
Norman R. Swanson

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out-of-sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting among multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we compare the finite sample properties of our block bootstrap procedures with the parametric bootstrap due to Kilian ("Journal of Applied Econometrics" 14 (1999), 491-510), within the context of encompassing and predictive accuracy tests. In the empirical illustration, it is found that unemployment has nonlinear marginal predictive content for inflation. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00418.x
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 48 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 67-109
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:1:p:67-109

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
Phone: (215) 898-8487
Fax: (215) 573-2057
Email:
Web page: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/econ/iereview/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0020-6598

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  5. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Inoue, Atsushi & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Bootstrapping GMM estimators for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 531-555, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  11. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching," CEPR Discussion Papers 4649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "VAR forecasting under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 99-136, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:4:p:598-620 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. McCracken, Michael W & Sapp, Stephen G, 2005. "Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's!," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 473-94, June.
  16. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
    Other versions:
  20. Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Testing For Distributional Change In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 156-187, February. [Downloadable!]
  21. Herman J. Bierens & Werner Ploberger, 1997. "Asymptotic Theory of Integrated Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1129-1152, September.
    Other versions:
  22. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June. [Downloadable!]
  24. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Weiss, Andrew A, 1996. "Estimating Time Series Models Using the Relevant Cost Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 539-60, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Recursive Predictability Tests for Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 336-345, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2004. "Maximum likelihood and the bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 199-219, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2005. "Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 735-765, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90. [Downloadable!]
  3. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2006. "International Evidence on the Efficacy of new-Keynesian Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 0602, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2007. "Backtesting Parametric Value-at-Risk with Estimation Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2007-005_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  5. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2006. "Forecasting Canadian Time Series With the New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 382, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman Swanson, 2008. "Information in the revision process of real-time datasets," Working Papers 08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also covers the most complete directory of Economics departments and institutes, EDIRC.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-24.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.