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Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss

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  • Pawel Krolikowski
  • Kurt Graden Lunsford

Abstract

We collect data from Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices and establish their usefulness as an indicator of aggregate job loss. The number of workers affected by WARN notices ("WARN layoffs") leads state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, and changes in the unemployment rate and private employment. WARN layoffs move closely with aggregate layoffs from Mass Layoff Statistics and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, but are timelier and cover a longer sample. In a vector autoregression, changes in WARN layoffs lead unemployment rate changes and job separations. Finally, they improve pseudo real-time forecasts of the unemployment rate. Data associated with this paper are available at openICPSR: https://doi.org/10.3886/E155161

Suggested Citation

  • Pawel Krolikowski & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2020. "Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss," Working Papers 20-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 02 Feb 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:87416
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202003r
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    Cited by:

    1. Leland D. Crane & Emily Green & Molly Harnish & Will McClennan & Paul E. Soto & Betsy Vrankovich & Jacob Williams, 2024. "Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WARN Act; mass layoffs; unemployment; dynamic factor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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