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Market Efficiency and Government Interventions in Prewar Japanese Rice Futures Markets

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  • Mikio Ito
  • Kiyotaka Maeda
  • Akihiko Noda

Abstract

This study analyzes how colonial rice trade in prewar Japan affected its rice market, considering several government interventions in the two rice futures exchanges in Tokyo and Osaka. We explore the interventions in the futures markets using two procedures. First, we measure the joint degree of efficiency in the markets using a time-varying vector autoregression model. Second, we examine many historical events that possibly affected the markets and focus on one event at a time. The degree varies over time within our sample period (1881-1932). The observation, together with historical analysis, leads to the following conclusions. (1) The two major markets in Tokyo and Osaka were nearly efficient. (2) Government interventions involving the delivery of imported rice from Taiwan and Korea often reduced futures market efficiency. Finally, (3) this relationship continued as long as the quality difference between imported and domestic rice existed. The government interventions that promoted domestic distributions of the colonial goods resulted in confusion in the commodity markets, and decreased efficiency of the markets in the metropole.

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  • Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2014. "Market Efficiency and Government Interventions in Prewar Japanese Rice Futures Markets," Papers 1404.1164, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1404.1164
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    5. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2016. "The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 621-635, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2018. "The futures premium and rice market efficiency in prewar Japan," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(3), pages 909-937, August.
    2. Kenichi Hirayama & Akihiko Noda, 2019. "Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in the Prewar and Wartime Japanese Stock Market, 1924-1943," Papers 1911.04059, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    3. Kenichi Hirayama & Akihiko Noda, 2020. "Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model," Papers 2008.00860, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.

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