IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v25y2019i1d10.1007_s11294-019-09721-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Apergis

    (University of Piraeus
    University of Derby)

  • Ioannis Pragidis

    (Democritus University of Thrace)

Abstract

This paper examines the link between changes in the sentiment tone with respect to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcements and stock returns. The analysis constructs a new index that describes the tone of the sentiment derived from these announcements, spanning the period January 2002 to June 2016. The novelty of this work relies on the development of a unique sentiment index associated with the messages conveyed by the ECB’s activities and the effect of this index on both the mean and the volatility of certain major international stock markets. In this context, the sentiment index is present in both the conditional mean and the volatility equations. The findings indicate a significant impact on both the mean and the volatility of returns, whereas the news sentiment/stock returns association increases in strength during the crisis period. The findings survive a robustness check based on the characteristics of the ECB governor’s personality.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Pragidis, 2019. "Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 91-112, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:25:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11294-019-09721-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-019-09721-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11294-019-09721-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-019-09721-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Charles L. Weise, 2012. "Political Pressures on Monetary Policy during the US Great Inflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 33-64, April.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 573-577, May.
    5. Jörg Bibow, 2013. "At the crossroads: the euro and its central bank guardian (and saviour?)," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(3), pages 609-626.
    6. Norbert Funke & Akimi Matsuda, 2006. "Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 189-210, May.
    7. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2013. "What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 125-145, February.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    9. Marco Hoeberichts & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2009. "Central bank communication and output stabilization," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 395-411, April.
    10. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    11. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    13. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    14. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Do FOMC members herd?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 176-179.
    15. Norbert Funke & Akimi Matsuda, 2006. "Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(2), pages 189-210, May.
    16. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.
    17. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    19. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    20. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wu, Di, 2013. "Word power: A new approach for content analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 712-729.
    21. Nitish Ranjan Sinha, 2016. "Underreaction to News in the US Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-46, June.
    22. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    23. Stefania D'Amico & Mira Farka, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137, January.
    24. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    25. Alexander Hillert & Heiko Jacobs & Sebastian Müller, 2014. "Media Makes Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3467-3501.
    26. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    27. John C. Williams & John B. Taylor, 2009. "A Black Swan in the Money Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 58-83, January.
    28. Siklos,Pierre L., 2006. "The Changing Face of Central Banking," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521034494.
    29. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 323-340, March.
    30. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    31. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    33. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    34. Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "Making Monetary Policy by Committee," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 171-194, August.
    35. Casey Dougal & Joseph Engelberg & Diego García & Christopher A. Parsons, 2012. "Journalists and the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 639-679.
    36. Claussen, Carl Andreas & Matsen, Egil & Røisland, Øistein & Torvik, Ragnar, 2012. "Overconfidence, monetary policy committees and chairman dominance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 699-711.
    37. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 136-151, January.
    38. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    39. David‐Jan Jansen, 2011. "Does The Clarity Of Central Bank Communication Affect Volatility In Financial Markets? Evidence From Humphrey‐Hawkins Testimonies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 494-509, October.
    40. Kurov, Alexander & Sancetta, Alessio & Strasser, Georg & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2019. "Price Drift Before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 449-479, February.
    41. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    42. Mark Harris & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2011. "A decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 413-442, March.
    43. Lee A. Smales, 2013. "The Determinants of RBA Target Rate Decisions: A Choice Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 556-569, December.
    44. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2013. "How Much Do Investors Care About Macroeconomic Risk? Evidence from Scheduled Economic Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 343-375, April.
    45. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    46. Groß-Klußmann, Axel & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 321-340, March.
    47. Mark A. Wynne, 2013. "A short history of FOMC communication," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 8(8), September.
    48. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes," Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    49. Seshadri Tirunillai & Gerard J. Tellis, 2012. "Does Chatter Really Matter? Dynamics of User-Generated Content and Stock Performance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 198-215, March.
    50. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    51. Tapking, Jens & Eisenschmidt, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
    52. Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2014. "The evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the impact of monetary policy surprises on asset prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 73-109.
    53. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    54. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    55. Nigel Pain & Christine Lewis & Thai-Thanh Dang & Yosuke Jin & Pete Richardson, 2014. "OECD Forecasts During and After the Financial Crisis: A Post Mortem," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1107, OECD Publishing.
    56. Ye Bai, 2014. "Cross-border sentiment: an empirical analysis on EU stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 259-290, February.
    57. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Feldman & Shimon Kogan & Matthew Richardson, 2013. "Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    59. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    60. Yutaka Kurihara, 2014. "Do European Central Bank Announcements Influence Stock Prices and Exchange Rates?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 1-1.
    61. Christine Lewis & Nigel Pain, 2014. "Lessons from OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 9-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mahambare, Vidya & Pathak, Jalaj, 2021. "Differential impact of diversity in policy communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Dmytro Krukovets, 2020. "Data Science Opportunities at Central Banks: Overview," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 249, pages 13-24.
    3. J. Sebastián Becerra & Alejandra Cruces, 2021. "Sentimiento en el Informe de Estabilidad Financiera del Banco Central de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 930, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prajwal Eachempati & Praveen Ranjan Srivastava, 2021. "Accounting for unadjusted news sentiment for asset pricing," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 383-422, May.
    2. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.
    3. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.
    4. Anand, Abhinav & Basu, Sankarshan & Pathak, Jalaj & Thampy, Ashok, 2021. "The impact of sentiment on emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 161-177.
    5. Steven Heston & Nitish R. Sinha, 2016. "News versus Sentiment : Predicting Stock Returns from News Stories," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    7. Justyna Klejdysz & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2023. "Shifts in ECB Communication: A Textual Analysis of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 473-542, June.
    8. Daniele Ballinari & Simon Behrendt, 2021. "How to gauge investor behavior? A comparison of online investor sentiment measures," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-204, June.
    9. Su, Zhi & Lu, Man & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Oil prices and news-based uncertainty: Novel evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 331-340.
    10. Pongsak Luangaram & Warapong Wongwachara, 2017. "More Than Words: A Textual Analysis of Monetary Policy Communication," PIER Discussion Papers 54, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Kristiansen, Kristian & Hvid, Anna Kirstine, 2020. "How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia," Working Paper Series 2493, European Central Bank.
    12. Liu, Sha & Han, Jingguang, 2020. "Media tone and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    14. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459227, HAL.
    15. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Sciences Po publications 2019 – 08, Sciences Po.
    16. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Nils Jannsen & Galina Potjagailo & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 81-126, October.
    19. Christina Bannier & Thomas Pauls & Andreas Walter, 2019. "Content analysis of business communication: introducing a German dictionary," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 79-123, February.
    20. Bianconi, Marcelo & Hua, Xiaxin & Tan, Chih Ming, 2015. "Determinants of systemic risk and information dissemination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 352-368.
    21. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2016. "The Effect of Infomation on Financial Markets: A Survey," MPRA Paper 71396, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Changes in the tone of sentiment wire news; ECB announcements; Stock prices; International stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:25:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11294-019-09721-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.