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Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co‐integration and Long Memory in the US and the UK

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  • Luis A. Gil‐Alana
  • Natalia Luqui
  • Juncal Cunado

Abstract

This paper deals with the relationship between the balance of trade and the exchange rate in the US/UK case. Many authors have studied this issue for many countries, but despite the intensive research, there is still no agreement about the effectiveness of currency devaluation to increase a country's balance of trade. We first analyse the relationship between the two variables using unit roots and co‐integration methods, and the results are ambiguous. We try a new approach based on fractional integration. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in case of the trade balance in favour of smaller orders of integration, while this hypothesis is not rejected for the exchange rate. Thus, the two series do not possess the same order of integration. We sort this problem out by taking the exchange rate as an exogenous variable, and including it in a regression model where the residuals might follow a fractionally integrated model.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Natalia Luqui & Juncal Cunado, 2008. "Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co‐integration and Long Memory in the US and the UK," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 59-74, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:37:y:2008:i:1:p:59-74
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00192.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    5. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    6. Hassan Shirvani & Barry Wilbratte, 1997. "The Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate and The Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-50.
    7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    8. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustment and crisis: the case of EU real exchange rates," Working Papers 2019/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Robert & Sova, Anamaria, 2011. "Europe Agreements and Trade Balance: Evidence form Four New EU Members," IZA Discussion Papers 5683, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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