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Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting

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Cited by:

  1. Yao, Yi & Yang, Rong & Liu, Zhiyuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2013. "Government intervention and institutional trading strategy: Evidence from a transition country," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 44-68.
  2. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Does sentiment harm market efficiency? An empirical analysis using a betting exchange setting," Working Papers 381, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  4. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2017. "Behavioral Biases Never Walk Alone," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 99-125, February.
  5. Durand, Robert B. & Patterson, Fernando M. & Shank, Corey A., 2021. "Behavioral biases in the NFL gambling market: Overreaction to news and the recency bias," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  6. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
  7. Yao, Yi & Yang, Rong & Liu, Zhiyuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Government intervention and institutional trading strategy: Evidence from a transition country," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  8. Ali, Héla Hadj & Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2010. "The Impact of Gurus: Parker Grades and en primeur Wine Prices," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 22-39, April.
  9. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2018. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2019-2047, November.
  10. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  11. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2015. "The National Football League season wins total betting market: The impact of heuristics on behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 38-54, July.
  12. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  13. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
  14. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2006. "Media Bias and Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 280-316, April.
  15. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2011. "Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 502-518, October.
  16. Raymond Sauer & J. Waller & Jahn Hakes, 2010. "The progress of the betting in a baseball game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 297-313, March.
  17. Nicolas G鲡rd Vaillant & François-Charles Wolff, 2013. "Understanding how experts rate cigars: a ‘havanometric’ analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 99-109, January.
  18. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  19. Adi Schnytzer & Guy Weinberg, 2008. "Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed-Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 173-190, April.
  20. Angie Andrikogiannopoulou & Filippos Papakonstantinou, 2018. "Individual Reaction to Past Performance Sequences: Evidence from a Real Marketplace," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1957-1973, April.
  21. A D Fitt & C J Howls & M Kabelka, 2006. "Valuation of soccer spread bets," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(8), pages 975-985, August.
  22. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2017. "Sentiment Bias And Asset Prices: Evidence From Sports Betting Markets And Social Media," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1119-1129, April.
  23. Kyle W. Hampton, 2007. "The Double‐Auction Gambling Market: An Experimental Examination," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 493-532, July.
  24. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
  25. Benjamin Waggoner & Daniel Wines & Brian P. Soebbing & Chad S. Seifried & Jean Michael Martinez, 2014. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-12, November.
  26. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2020. "Stock returns and investor sentiment: textual analysis and social media," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 458-485, July.
  28. Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 9422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Marshall, Ben R., 2009. "How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 917-930, August.
  30. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
  31. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
  32. Merz, Oliver & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2021. "Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail: Are people affected by uninformative racehorse names?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  33. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.
  34. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2019. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Papers 1902.01265, arXiv.org.
  35. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan & Bahattin Hamarat, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(16), pages 161-175, April.
  36. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
  37. Michael Cary, 2024. "Herding and investor sentiment after the cryptocurrency crash: evidence from Twitter and natural language processing," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.
  38. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2019. "Hidden Power of Trading Activity: The FLB in Tennis Betting Exchanges," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(2), pages 261-285, February.
  40. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_009 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," Working Papers 548, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  42. Greg Durham & Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan, 2012. "Point-Spread Wagering Markets' Analogue to Realized Return in Financial Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(5), pages 554-566, October.
  43. repec:lan:wpaper:3618 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Montone, Maurizio, 2021. "Optimal pricing in the online betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 344-363.
  45. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win," OSF Preprints sd32u, Center for Open Science.
  46. Shank, Corey A., 2022. "Information asymmetry in the NFL gambling market: Inside information versus informed bettors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
  47. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
  48. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2024. "The volume-implied volatility relation in financial markets: A behavioral explanation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  49. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2018. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 455-472, May.
  50. Daniel M. Chin, 2011. "A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian Advantage," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 5(3), pages 15-26, October.
  51. Greg Durham & Tod Perry, 2008. "The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, May.
  52. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," OSF Preprints dmksp, Center for Open Science.
  53. Fowdur, Lona & Kadiyali, Vrinda & Prince, Jeffrey, 2012. "Racial bias in expert quality assessment: A study of newspaper movie reviews," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 292-307.
  54. repec:lan:wpaper:3620 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2016. "Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 3-11, January.
  56. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
  57. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2020. "Casual bettors and sentiment bias in NBA and NFL betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(53), pages 5797-5806, November.
  58. Choi, Darwin & Hui, Sam K., 2014. "The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 614-629.
  59. William Dare & John Gandar & Richard Zuber & Robert Pavlik, 2005. "In search of the source of informed trader information in the college football betting market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 143-152.
  60. Dan Bernhardt & Steven Heston, 2010. "Point Shaving In College Basketball: A Cautionary Tale For Forensic Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 14-25, January.
  61. Sathya Ramesh & Ragib Mostofa & Marco Bornstein & John Dobelman, 2019. "Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets," Papers 1910.08858, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
  62. Andrikogiannopoulou, Angie & Papakonstantinou, Filippos, 2017. "Individual reaction to past performance sequences: evidence from a real marketplace," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87997, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  63. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
  64. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2015. "A study of a market anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump”, but would you bet on it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 13-25.
  65. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
  66. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
  67. repec:lan:wpaper:4011 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. David Forrest & Ian Mchale, 2007. "Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 751-768.
  69. Krieger, Kevin & Fodor, Andy, 2013. "Price movements and the prevalence of informed traders: The case of line movement in college basketball," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 70-82.
  70. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan, PhD, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 184-197, November.
  71. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified," OSF Preprints pj79r, Center for Open Science.
  72. Kevin Krieger & Andy Fodor & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "The Sensitivity of Findings of Expected Bookmaker Profitability," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(2), pages 186-202, April.
  73. Greg Durham & Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan, 2008. "The Relative Importance of Strength and Weight in Processing New Information in the College Football Betting Market," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 13-28, September.
  74. Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis & Andy Fodor, 2014. "Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 201-211, April.
  75. Polson Nicholas G. & Stern Hal S., 2015. "The implied volatility of a sports game," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 145-153, September.
  76. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  77. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
  78. Borghesi, Richard, 2007. "The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 340-354.
  79. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  80. Humphreys, Brad, 2010. "Prices, Point Spreads and Profits: Evidence from the National Football League," Working Papers 2010-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  81. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: Restricted Choice, Selection Bias, and Empirical Practice," OSF Preprints dmgtp, Center for Open Science.
  82. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Working Papers 552, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  83. Radzevick, Joseph R. & Moore, Don A., 2008. "Myopic biases in competitions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 206-218, November.
  84. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  85. Po-Jung Chen, 2016. "The Effects of Analysts’ Herding on Traders: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 203-227, June.
  86. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
  87. Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2024. "Examining the impact of visibility on market efficiency: lessons from movement in NFL betting lines," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 263-279, June.
  88. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.
  89. Gregory R. Durham & Michael G. Hertzel & J. Spencer Martin, 2005. "The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2551-2569, October.
  90. Feng Guanhao & Polson Nicholas & Xu Jianeng, 2016. "The market for English Premier League (EPL) odds," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 167-178, December.
  91. Miller, Joshua B. & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2021. "Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  92. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
  93. Ian Milliner & Paul White & Don J. Webber, 2009. "A Statistical Development of Fixed Odds Betting Rules in Soccer," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 89-99, April.
  94. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  95. Kyle J. Kain & Trevon D. Logan, 2014. "Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 45-63, February.
  96. Nofsinger, John R. & Shank, Corey A., 2023. "Momentum trading in the NFL gambling market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
  97. repec:lan:wpaper:3726 is not listed on IDEAS
  98. Justin M. Ross & Sarah E. Larson & Chad Wall, 2012. "Are Surveys Of Experts Unbiased? Evidence From College Football Rankings," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(4), pages 502-522, October.
  99. Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2007. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(1), pages 3-18, February.
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