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Myopic biases in competitions

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  • Radzevick, Joseph R.
  • Moore, Don A.

Abstract

In three studies using both laboratory and field data, we show that the focal competitor's strengths and weaknesses feature more prominently in predictions of the outcomes of future competitions than do the strengths and weaknesses of the opponents. People are more confident when their own side is strong, regardless of how strong the competition is. We show that this effect is driven by the fact that people have better information about their own side than the other side, in part because they preferentially seek out information about their own side. Implications for theories of decision making in competitive settings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Radzevick, Joseph R. & Moore, Don A., 2008. "Myopic biases in competitions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 206-218, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:107:y:2008:i:2:p:206-218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moore, Don A. & Cain, Daylian M., 2007. "Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 197-213, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
    2. Windschitl, Paul D. & Scherer, Aaron M. & Smith, Andrew R. & Rose, Jason P., 2013. "Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 73-86.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:7-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Radzevick, Joseph R. & Moore, Don A., 2013. "Just how comparative are comparative judgments?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 80-91.
    5. Daylian M. Cain & Don A. Moore & Uriel Haran, 2015. "Making sense of overconfidence in market entry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Shai Davidai & Thomas Gilovich, 2016. "The tide that lifts all focal boats: Asymmetric predictions of ascent and descent in rankings," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(1), pages 7-20, January.
    7. Carlson, Kurt A. & Guha, Abhijit, 2011. "Leader-focused search: The impact of an emerging preference on information search," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 133-141, May.
    8. Uri Simonsohn, 2010. "eBay's Crowded Evenings: Competition Neglect in Market Entry Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1060-1073, July.
    9. Murad, Zahra, 2016. "Does group discussion lead to better informed and more strategic market entry decisions?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 25-28.

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