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Price movements and the prevalence of informed traders: The case of line movement in college basketball

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  • Krieger, Kevin
  • Fodor, Andy

Abstract

Recent research has hypothesized that a higher concentration of informed traders in a market implies that prices are more efficient. A reasonable next question is whether large price movements in markets with a relatively more informed clientele are more indicative of information realization. We find line movements in college basketball games of relatively low profile, denoted by the lack of a “power conference” team in the contest, are significantly more likely to be the result of information realization. This confirms that substantial price changes in markets with fewer ordinary traders are more (less) likely indicative of information flow (noise).

Suggested Citation

  • Krieger, Kevin & Fodor, Andy, 2013. "Price movements and the prevalence of informed traders: The case of line movement in college basketball," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 70-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:68:y:2013:i:c:p:70-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2013.04.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. Lee Colquitt & Norman H. Godwin & Steven B. Caudill, 2001. "Testing Efficiency Across Markets: Evidence from the NCAA Basketball Betting Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1‐2), pages 231-248, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports gambling; Line movement; Price changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services

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