Individual reaction to past performance sequences: evidence from a real marketplace
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 21-37, August.
- Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016.
"Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
- Claus Bjørn Jørgensen & Sigrid Suetens & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," Discussion Papers 11-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Tyran, Jean-Robert & Suetens, Sigrid & ,, 2011. "Predicting Lotto Numbers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glaser, Markus, 2003. "Online broker investors : demographic information, investment strategy, portfolio positions, and trading activity," Papers 03-18, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-1386, December.
- Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004.
"Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
- Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2002. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," NBER Working Papers 9275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2002. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp100, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001.
"What Makes Investors Trade?,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
- Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2000. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm146, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
- Matthew Rabin, 2002. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 775-816.
- Russell Davidson & James MacKinnon, 2000.
"Bootstrap tests: how many bootstraps?,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 55-68.
- James G. MacKinnon & Russell Davidson, 2001. "Bootstrap Tests: How Many Bootstraps?," Working Paper 1036, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Matti Keloharju & Samuli Knüpfer & Juhani Linnainmaa, 2012. "Do Investors Buy What They Know? Product Market Choices and Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 2921-2958.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
- Glaser, Markus, 2003. "Online Broker Investors: Demographic Information, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Positions, and Trading Activity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-18, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998.
"A model of investor sentiment,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
- Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," Scholarly Articles 30747159, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
- Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016.
"Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
- Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016. "Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607.
- Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2007. "Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 209-218, December.
- Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. "Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-1737, September.
- repec:bla:econom:v:56:y:1989:i:223:p:323-41 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:995-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
- Roger K. Loh & Mitch Warachka, 2012. "Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1305-1321, July.
- Daniel Dorn & Paul Sengmueller, 2009. "Trading as Entertainment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 591-603, April.
- Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 123-135, January.
- Elena Asparouhova & Michael Hertzel & Michael Lemmon, 2009. "Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1766-1782, November.
- Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
- Xiaohui Gao & Tse-Chun Lin, 2015. "Do Individual Investors Treat Trading as a Fun and Exciting Gambling Activity? Evidence from Repeated Natural Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 2128-2166.
- Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
- Gregory R. Durham & Michael G. Hertzel & J. Spencer Martin, 2005. "The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2551-2569, October.
- John D. Storey, 2002. "A direct approach to false discovery rates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(3), pages 479-498, August.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Pastoriza, David & Alegre, Inés & Canela, Miguel A., 2021. "Conditioning the effect of prize on tournament self-selection," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Angie Andrikogiannopoulou & Filippos Papakonstantinou, 2018. "Individual Reaction to Past Performance Sequences: Evidence from a Real Marketplace," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1957-1973, April.
- Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
- Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2019. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Papers 1902.01265, arXiv.org.
- Pelster, Matthias, 2020. "The gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies: Empirical evidence from trading data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
- Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018.
"Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases,"
NBER Working Papers
25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
- Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2018. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2019-2047, November.
- Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2022.
"Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June.
- Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2015. "Hedge fund flows and performance streaks: How investors weigh information," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-15-01, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
- Miller, Joshua B. & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2021. "Is it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
- Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win," OSF Preprints sd32u, Center for Open Science.
- Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," OSF Preprints dmksp, Center for Open Science.
- Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: Restricted Choice, Selection Bias, and Empirical Practice," OSF Preprints dmgtp, Center for Open Science.
- Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2016. "Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 3-11, January.
- Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007.
"Overconfidence and trading volume,"
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
- Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 1990. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, January.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and trading volume," Papers 03-07, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Weber, Martin & Glaser, Markus, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," CEPR Discussion Papers 3941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Greg Durham & Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan, 2012. "Point-Spread Wagering Markets' Analogue to Realized Return in Financial Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(5), pages 554-566, October.
- Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Working Papers 552, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Abreu, Margarida & Mendes, Victor, 2012.
"Information, overconfidence and trading: Do the sources of information matter?,"
Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 868-881.
- Margarida Abreu & Victor Mendes, 2011. "Information, Overconfidence and Trading: Do the Sources of Information Matter?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/25, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017.
"Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments,"
NBER Working Papers
23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2018. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
More about this item
Keywords
momentum; individual decision making; heterogeneity; behavioral biases; sports betting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:87997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.