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“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Waggoner

    (School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Daniel Wines

    (School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Brian P. Soebbing

    (School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Chad S. Seifried

    (School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Jean Michael Martinez

    (School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

Abstract

Several articles have looked at factors that affect the adjustments of point spreads, based on hot hands or streaks, for smaller durations of time. This study examines these effects for 34 regular seasons in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Estimating a Seemingly Unrelated Regression model using all 34 seasons, all streaks significantly impacted point spreads and difference in actual points. When estimating each season individually, differences emerged particularly examining winning and losing streaks of six games or more. The results indicate both the presence of momentum effects and the gambler’s fallacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Waggoner & Daniel Wines & Brian P. Soebbing & Chad S. Seifried & Jean Michael Martinez, 2014. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:2:y:2014:i:4:p:359-370:d:42745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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