IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v48y2010i1p14-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Point Shaving In College Basketball: A Cautionary Tale For Forensic Economics

Author

Listed:
  • DAN BERNHARDT
  • STEVEN HESTON

Abstract

Point shaving is the practice by favored teams of attempting to win by less than the point spread to yield profits for gamblers who bet on the underdog. Consistent with point shaving, strong favorites are anomalously likely to win by less than the spread. To distinguish between innocent and criminal explanations, we (1) exploit information in line movements and (2) isolate games without betting lines to identify games where point shaving is implausible and document similar patterns. The data are better explained by strategic efforts to maximize the probability of winning. These findings highlight the importance of methodology design. (JEL L83, K42)

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Bernhardt & Steven Heston, 2010. "Point Shaving In College Basketball: A Cautionary Tale For Forensic Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 14-25, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:48:y:2010:i:1:p:14-25
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00253.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00253.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00253.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dare, William H. & MacDonald, S. Scott, 1996. "A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 295-318, February.
    2. McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1992. "Bidding Rings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 579-599, June.
      • McAfee, R. Preston & McMillan, John., 1990. "Bidding Rings," Working Papers 726, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    3. Yermack, David, 1997. "Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 449-476, June.
    4. Christie, William G & Schultz, Paul H, 1994. "Why Do NASDAQ Market Makers Avoid Odd-Eighth Quotes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1813-1840, December.
    5. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
    6. Biais, Bruno, 1993. "Price Information and Equilibrium Liquidity in Fragmented and Centralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 157-185, March.
    7. Ayres Ian, 2007. "Give Freakonomics a Chance," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 4(5), pages 1-5, November.
    8. Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang, 2006. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 127-151, March.
    9. Brian A. Jacob & Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "Rotten Apples: An Investigation of the Prevalence and Predictors of Teacher Cheating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 843-877.
    10. Porter, Robert H & Zona, J Douglas, 1993. "Detection of Bid Rigging in Procurement Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 518-538, June.
    11. Randall A. Heron & Erik Lie, 2009. "What Fraction of Stock Option Grants to Top Executives Have Been Backdated or Manipulated?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 513-525, April.
    12. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. "An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-1699, December.
    13. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. "The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-1074, September.
    14. Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-1386, December.
    15. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    17. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    18. Bernhardt, Dan & Hughson, Eric, 2002. "Intraday trade in dealership markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1697-1732, October.
    19. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 279-283, May.
    20. Christopher Ferrall & Anthony A. Smith, 1999. "A Sequential Game Model Of Sports Championship Series: Theory And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 704-719, November.
    21. Mark Duggan & Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Winning Isn't Everything: Corruption in Sumo Wrestling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1594-1605, December.
    22. Robert H. Porter & J. Douglas Zona, 1999. "Ohio School Milk Markets: An Analysis of Bidding," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 263-288, Summer.
    23. Martin Pesendorfer, 2000. "A Study of Collusion in First-Price Auctions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 381-411.
    24. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
    25. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-835.
    26. Heron, Randall A. & Lie, Erik, 2007. "Does backdating explain the stock price pattern around executive stock option grants?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 271-295, February.
    27. Nicola Persico, 2002. "Racial Profiling, Fairness, and Effectiveness of Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1472-1497, December.
    28. Erik Lie, 2005. "On the Timing of CEO Stock Option Awards," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 802-812, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shane Sanders & Justin Ehrlich & James Boudreau, 2017. "Cycles in Team Tennis and Other Paired-Element Contests," Games, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Ryan Rodenberg, 2013. "Employee Discipline And Basketball Referees: A Prediction Market Approach," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(2), pages 43-54.
    3. Michael Jetter & Jay K. Walker, 2017. "Good Girl, Bad Boy? Evidence Consistent with Collusion in Professional Tennis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(1), pages 155-180, July.
    4. Ryan M. Rodenberg, 2013. "The goals and impacts of age restrictions in sports," Chapters, in: Eva Marikova Leeds & Michael A. Leeds (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Women in Sports, chapter 8, pages 156-172, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken II, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2018. "Market evidence against widespread point shaving in college basketball," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 283-292.
    6. Christian Deutscher & Eugen Dimant & Brad R. Humphreys, 2017. "Match Fixing and Sports Betting in Football: Empirical Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Working Papers 17-01, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    7. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2012. "Response to Comment on “Investigating Allegations of Pointshaving in NCAA Basketball Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentagesâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 211-217, April.
    8. Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Forensic Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 731-769, September.
    9. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Stephan Werner, 2010. "Corruption in Professional Sumo: An Update on the Study of Duggan and Levitt," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 383-396, August.
    10. Rodenberg Ryan, 2011. "Perception ? Reality: Analyzing Specific Allegations of NBA Referee Bias," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-13, May.
    11. Helmut Dietl & Markus Lang & Stephan Werner, 2008. "Corruption in Professional Sumo: An Update on Duggan and Levitt's Study," Working Papers 0019, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised Jun 2009.
    12. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Have Betting Exchanges Corrupted Horse Racing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(7), pages 673-697, October.
    13. Adam Hoffer & Jared A. Pincin, 2019. "Quantifying NFL Players’ Value With the Help of Vegas Point Spreads Values," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(7), pages 959-974, October.
    14. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
    15. Borghesi, Richard & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2024. "Point shaving? A novel experiment and new insights," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    16. Alasdair Brown, 2012. "Examining Agency Conflict in Horse Racing," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(2), pages 388-398, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May.
    2. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    3. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    4. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
    5. Li, Mingsheng & McCormick, Timothy & Zhao, Xin, 2005. "Order imbalance and liquidity supply: Evidence from the bubble burst of Nasdaq stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 533-555, September.
    6. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-1689, December.
    7. Bruno Biais & Thierry Foucault & François Salani, 1995. "Implicit collusion on wide spreads," Economics Working Papers 153, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andy Snell & Ian Tonks, 1996. "Utilising Time Series Methods to Assess Information and Inventory Effects in a Dealer Market in Illiquid Stocks," FMG Discussion Papers dp242, Financial Markets Group.
    10. Pascual, Roberto, 2000. "Adverse selection costs, trading activity and liquidity in the NYSE: an empirical analysis in a dynamic context," UC3M Working papers. Economics 7276, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Murphy Jun Jie Lee, 2013. "The Microstructure of Trading Processes on the Singapore Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4, July-Dece.
    13. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    14. Joseph E. Harrington, Jr, 2005. "Detecting Cartels," Economics Working Paper Archive 526, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    15. Sun, Yuxin & Ibikunle, Gbenga, 2017. "Informed trading and the price impact of block trades: A high frequency trading analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-129.
    16. Trifan, Emanuela, 2004. "Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 131, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    17. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2001. "Competing market makers, liquidity provision, and bid-ask spreads," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 269-308, June.
    18. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    19. Hu, Audrey & Offerman, Theo & Onderstal, Sander, 2011. "Fighting collusion in auctions: An experimental investigation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 84-96, January.
    20. Black, Jeffrey R. & Stock, Duane & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2016. "The pricing of different dimensions of liquidity: Evidence from government guaranteed bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:48:y:2010:i:1:p:14-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.