IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/buc/jgbeco/v5y2011i3p15-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian Advantage

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel M. Chin

    (University of South Florida)

Abstract

Medical research shows that the human body typically performs at its best during late afternoon hours, and that the results of National Football League (NFL) games can partly be explained by differences in these levels of performance, coined the circadian advantage, when teams based in different time zones play against each other. This paper uses an augmented version of Dare and Holland’s (2004) generalized model to provide evidence that a circadian advantage bias exists in the NFL betting market. Detailed betting data used here supports results from Levitt (2004) and Paul and Weinbach (2007) by showing that sports books make use of the bias by setting odds that bait bettors who are unaware of the circadian advantage into making what tends to be a losing wager on the disadvantaged team.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel M. Chin, 2011. "A Test of Unbiasedness and Sports Book Profits in the NFL Point Spread Betting Merket Using Circadian Advantage," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 5(3), pages 15-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:5:y:2011:i:3:p:15-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jgbe/article/view/571
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
    2. R. Borghesi, 2007. "The late-season bias: explaining the NFL's home-underdog effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(15), pages 1889-1903.
    3. Bradford Cornell & Richard Roll, 1981. "Strategies for Pairwise Competition in Markets and Organizations," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 201-213, Spring.
    4. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2007. "Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(3), pages 209-218, December.
    5. William Dare & A. Steven Holland, 2004. "Efficiency in the NFL betting market: modifying and consolidating research methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 9-15.
    6. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. "Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-1737, September.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:995-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
    9. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
    10. Golec, Joseph & Tamarkin, Maurry, 1991. "The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market : Statistical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 311-323, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bryan C. McCannon, 2015. "Replacement Referees And Nfl Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(2), pages 14-26.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodney J Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Wagering Preferences Of Nfl Bettors: Determinants Of Betting Volume," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(1), pages 42-55.
    2. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2014. "Market Efficiency and Behavioral Biases in the WNBA Betting Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, April.
    3. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.
    4. Andy Fodor & Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2013. "Inefficient pricing from holdover bias in NFL point spread markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1407-1418, September.
    5. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2011. "NFL bettor biases and price setting: further tests of the Levitt hypothesis of sportsbook behaviour," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-197.
    7. Adi Schnytzer & Guy Weinberg, 2008. "Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed-Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 173-190, April.
    8. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
    9. Kyle J. Kain & Trevon D. Logan, 2014. "Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 45-63, February.
    10. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Benjamin Waggoner & Daniel Wines & Brian P. Soebbing & Chad S. Seifried & Jean Michael Martinez, 2014. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-12, November.
    12. Greg Durham & Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan, 2012. "Point-Spread Wagering Markets' Analogue to Realized Return in Financial Markets," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(5), pages 554-566, October.
    13. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bryan C. McCannon, 2015. "Replacement Referees And Nfl Betting Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(2), pages 14-26.
    15. Robin Maximilian Stetzka & Stefan Winter, 2023. "How rational is gambling?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1432-1488, September.
    16. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    17. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kevin Krieger & Clay Girdner & Andy Fodor & David Kirch, 2013. "The Power Of Wagering On Power Conferences," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(1), pages 13-26.
    19. Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Is the NFL betting market still inefficient?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 818-827, October.
    20. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:5:y:2011:i:3:p:15-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dominic Cortis, University of Malta (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.