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A Survey of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Economics and Finance

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Cited by:

  1. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  2. Antonio A. F. Santos, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation for High-Frequency Volatility Models in a Time Deformed Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 455-479, February.
  3. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
  4. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
  5. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
  6. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107630024, November.
  7. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
  8. Kenichiro McAlinn & Asahi Ushio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2016. "Volatility Forecasts Using Nonlinear Leverage Effects," Papers 1605.06482, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
  9. Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2019. "Tempered particle filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 26-44.
  10. Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Edward Herbst & Ethan Matlin & Reca Sarfati & Frank Schorfheide, 2021. "Online estimation of DSGE models," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(1), pages 33-58.
  11. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
  12. Kenichiro McAlinn & Asahi Ushio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2020. "Volatility forecasts using stochastic volatility models with nonlinear leverage effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 143-154, March.
  13. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Forecast evaluation of DSGE models: Linear and nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1130, September.
  14. Zhang, Jinyu & Zhang, Qiaosen & Li, Yong & Wang, Qianchao, 2023. "Sequential Bayesian inference for agent-based models with application to the Chinese business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  15. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
  16. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
  17. Patrick Leung & Catherine S. Forbes & Gael M Martin & Brendan McCabe, 2019. "Forecasting Observables with Particle Filters: Any Filter Will Do!," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  18. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen & Elie Tamer, 2018. "Monte Carlo Confidence Sets for Identified Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1965-2018, November.
  19. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2024. "BVARs and stochastic volatility," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 3, pages 43-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  20. Caterina Schiavoni & Siem Jan Koopman & Franz Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jan van den Brakel, 2021. "Time-varying state correlations in state space models and their estimation via indirect inference," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-020/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  21. Andrea Beccarini, 2016. "Bias correction through filtering omitted variables and instruments," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 754-766, March.
  22. Ioannis Bournakis & Mike Tsionas, 2024. "A Non‐parametric Estimation of Productivity with Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Shocks: The Role of Research and Development (R&D) and Corporate Tax," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(3), pages 641-671, June.
  23. Zhiming LONG & Rémy HERRERA, 2020. "Spurious OLS Estimators of Detrending Method by Adding a Linear Trend in Difference-Stationary Processes—A Mathematical Proof and Its Verification by Simulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, November.
  24. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2015. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i03).
  25. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "Revealing the arcane: an introduction to the art of stochastic volatility models," MPRA Paper 25511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.
  27. S Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 87-118.
  28. Sylvain Leduc & Kevin Moran & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2023. "Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 392-407, March.
  29. William Djamfa Mbiakop & Hlalefang Khobai & Djomo Choumbou Raoul Fani, 2023. "Response of Agriculture Production to Change of Foreign Direct Investment and Public Agriculture Expenditure in South Africa: A Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 1-7, November.
  30. Augustyniak, Maciej, 2014. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the Markov-switching GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 61-75.
  31. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 161-180, March.
  32. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
  33. Anh Nguyen & Efthymios Pavlidis & David Alan Peel, 2016. "Modeling changes in U.S. monetary policy," Working Papers 127876159, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  34. Benedikt Rotermann & Bernd Wilfling, 2015. "Estimating rational stock-market bubbles with sequential Monte Carlo methods," CQE Working Papers 4015, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  35. Baştürk, N. & Borowska, A. & Grassi, S. & Hoogerheide, L. & van Dijk, H.K., 2019. "Forecast density combinations of dynamic models and data driven portfolio strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 170-186.
  36. Delis, Manthos D. & Kazakis, Pantelis & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2023. "Management and takeover decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1256-1268.
  37. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
  38. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2023. "A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  39. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
  40. Rotermann, Benedikt & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "Periodically collapsing Evans bubbles and stock-price volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 383-386.
  41. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2015. "Quasifiltering for time-series modeling," MPRA Paper 66453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Specification tests based on MCMC output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 237-260.
  43. Mark Bognanni & Edward P. Herbst, 2014. "Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers (Old Series) 1427, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  44. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of time series models: the Kalman filter and beyond," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 15, pages 334-362, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  45. Arellano, Manuel & Blundell, Richard & Bonhomme, Stéphane & Light, Jack, 2024. "Heterogeneity of consumption responses to income shocks in the presence of nonlinear persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
  46. Creal, Drew D. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2015. "High dimensional dynamic stochastic copula models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 335-345.
  47. Kyle S Hickmann & Geoffrey Fairchild & Reid Priedhorsky & Nicholas Generous & James M Hyman & Alina Deshpande & Sara Y Del Valle, 2015. "Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-29, May.
  48. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2020. "Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 450-493.
  49. O. Samimi & Z. Mardani & S. Sharafpour & F. Mehrdoust, 2017. "LSM Algorithm for Pricing American Option Under Heston–Hull–White’s Stochastic Volatility Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 173-187, August.
  50. Targino, Rodrigo S. & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for capital allocation under copula-dependent risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 206-226.
  51. Tsionas, Mike G., 2022. "Convex non-parametric least squares, causal structures and productivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 370-387.
  52. Karamé, Frédéric, 2018. "A new particle filtering approach to estimate stochastic volatility models with Markov-switching," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 204-230.
  53. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
  54. Martin Burda & Remi Daviet, 2023. "Hamiltonian sequential Monte Carlo with application to consumer choice behavior," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 54-77, January.
  55. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
  56. Moura, Guilherme V. & Turatti, Douglas Eduardo, 2014. "Efficient estimation of conditionally linear and Gaussian state space models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 494-499.
  57. Manthos D. Delis & Pantelis Kazakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2021. "Management Practices and Takeover Decisions," Working Papers 2021_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  58. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel Á. Fernández-Gámez, 2023. "Quantum Monte Carlo simulations for estimating FOREX markets: a speculative attacks experience," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
  60. Jean-François Bégin, 2016. "Deflation Risk and Implications for Life Insurers," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, December.
  61. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
  62. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
  63. Li, Yong & Liu, Xiao-Bin & Yu, Jun, 2015. "A Bayesian chi-squared test for hypothesis testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 54-69.
  64. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
  65. Alexander Tsyplakov, 2011. "An introduction to state space modeling (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 9, pages 1-24, July.
  66. Cheng, Jing & Chan, Ngai Hang, 2019. "Efficient inference for nonlinear state space models: An automatic sample size selection rule," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 143-154.
  67. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Phuong Anh Vu & Bernard Wong, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Papers 2004.06880, arXiv.org.
  68. Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2020. "The dynamic factor network model with an application to international trade," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 494-515.
  69. Mark Bognanni & John Zito, 2019. "Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 19-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  70. Karol Gellert & Erik Schlögl, 2021. "Parameter Learning and Change Detection Using a Particle Filter with Accelerated Adaptation," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.
  71. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
  72. Bognanni, Mark & Zito, John, 2020. "Sequential Bayesian inference for vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  73. Pitt, Michael K. & Silva, Ralph dos Santos & Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2012. "On some properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods based on the particle filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 134-151.
  74. Tsionas, Mike G., 2020. "On a model of environmental performance and technology gaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 1141-1152.
  75. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Steven Ongena & Mike G. Tsionas, 2023. "The response of household debt to COVID-19 using a neural networks VAR in OECD," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 65-91, July.
  77. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
  78. Maciej Augustyniak & Mathieu Boudreault & Manuel Morales, 2018. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Markov-Switching GARCH Model Based on a General Collapsing Procedure," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 165-188, March.
  79. Geweke, John & Durham, Garland, 2019. "Sequentially adaptive Bayesian learning algorithms for inference and optimization," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 4-25.
  80. Nalan Basturk & Stefano Grassi & Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Time-varying Combinations of Bayesian Dynamic Models and Equity Momentum Strategies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-099/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  81. Andreas Hetland, 2018. "The Stochastic Stationary Root Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-33, August.
  82. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank," Working Papers No 6/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  83. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
  84. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  85. Li, Yong & Zhang, Mingzhi & Zhang, Yonghui, 2022. "Sequential Bayesian bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with applications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  86. Gareth W. Peters & Rodrigo S. Targino & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2017. "Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-51, September.
  87. Karolos Arapakis & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Jeremy McCauley, 2021. "On the Distribution and Dynamics of Medical Expenditure Among the Elderly," Working Papers wp436, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  88. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  89. Nguyen Anh D. M. & Pavlidis Efthymios G. & Peel David A., 2018. "Modeling changes in US monetary policy with a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-17, December.
  90. Mike G. Tsionas & Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Another look at contagion across United States and European financial markets: Evidence from the credit default swaps markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1137-1155, January.
  91. Frédéric Godin & Ramin Eghbalzadeh & Patrice Gaillardetz, 2023. "Pricing swaptions and zero-coupon futures options under the discrete-time arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 171-206, October.
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