IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/qnt/quantl/y2011i9p1-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An introduction to state space modeling (in Russian)

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Tsyplakov

    (Novosibirsk State University, Russia)

Abstract

Many time series models, primarily various models with unobservable components, can be represented in a so called state space form. A state space model is a powerful tool that allows one to apply to the original model a wide range of standard procedures including estimation and forecasting. This essay provides a survey of this universal class of models and related procedures.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Tsyplakov, 2011. "An introduction to state space modeling (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 9, pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2011:i:9:p:1-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://quantile.ru/09/09-AT.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Yoosoon & Isaac Miller, J. & Park, Joon Y., 2009. "Extracting a common stochastic trend: Theory with some applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 231-247, June.
    2. J. Durbin & S. J. Koopman, 2000. "Time series analysis of non‐Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 3-56.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    4. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    6. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 65-89, May.
    10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521835954 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    12. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
    13. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
    14. Shephard, Neil, 1993. "Fitting Nonlinear Time-Series Models with Applications to Stochastic Variance Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 135-152, Suppl. De.
    15. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    16. R. H. Shumway & D. S. Stoffer, 1982. "An Approach To Time Series Smoothing And Forecasting Using The Em Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 253-264, July.
    17. Harvey, Andrew & Proietti, Tommaso (ed.), 2005. "Readings in Unobserved Components Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199278695.
    18. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    19. Cavanaugh, Joseph E. & Shumway, Robert H., 1996. "On computing the expected Fisher information matrix for state-space model parameters," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 347-355, March.
    20. Papanastassiou, Demetrios, 2006. "Computing the covariance matrix of QML estimators for a state space model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(10), pages 1001-1006, May.
    21. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    22. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2007. "Monte Carlo Estimation for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(4), pages 827-839.
    23. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
    24. Drew Creal, 2012. "A Survey of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Economics and Finance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 245-296.
    25. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    26. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    27. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    28. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Orlov, D. & Postnikov, E., 2022. "Phillips curve: Inflation and NAIRU in the Russian regions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 61-80.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2008. "A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-108/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of time series models: the Kalman filter and beyond," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 15, pages 334-362, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    4. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
    5. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    6. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "Revealing the arcane: an introduction to the art of stochastic volatility models," MPRA Paper 25511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
    8. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Rodríguez, Alejandro & Ruiz, Esther, 2012. "Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with estimated parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 62-74, January.
    10. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    11. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel, 2014. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis With Application To The Us Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 65-90, January.
    12. Siem Jan Koopman & Max I.P. Mallee & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-095/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    14. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
    16. Wali Ullah & Yoshihiko Tsukuda & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting of Government Bond Yields with Latent and Macroeconomic Factors: Does Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," TERG Discussion Papers 287, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    17. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    18. Alexander Tsyplakov, 2010. "Revealing the arcane: an introduction to the art of stochastic volatility models (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 8, pages 69-122, July.
    19. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2016. "What derives the bond portfolio value-at-risk: Information roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    20. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2011:i:9:p:1-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Anatolyev (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://quantile.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.