IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v5y2017i4p53-d112832.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Gareth W. Peters

    (Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
    Oxford-Man Institute, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 2JD, UK
    System Risk Center, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK)

  • Rodrigo S. Targino

    (Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Botafogo, RJ 22250-040, Brazil)

  • Mario V. Wüthrich

    (RiskLab, Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to develop a detailed step-by-step guide to the development and application of a new class of efficient Monte Carlo methods to solve practically important problems faced by insurers under the new solvency regulations. In particular, a novel Monte Carlo method to calculate capital allocations for a general insurance company is developed, with a focus on coherent capital allocation that is compliant with the Swiss Solvency Test. The data used is based on the balance sheet of a representative stylized company. For each line of business in that company, allocations are calculated for the one-year risk with dependencies based on correlations given by the Swiss Solvency Test. Two different approaches for dealing with parameter uncertainty are discussed and simulation algorithms based on (pseudo-marginal) Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms are described and their efficiency is analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gareth W. Peters & Rodrigo S. Targino & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2017. "Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-51, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:53-:d:112832
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/5/4/53/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/5/4/53/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Del Moral & Arnaud Doucet & Ajay Jasra, 2006. "Sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 411-436, June.
    2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    3. Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2013. "Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 146-161.
    4. Mack, Thomas, 1993. "Distribution-free Calculation of the Standard Error of Chain Ladder Reserve Estimates," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 213-225, November.
    5. N. Chopin & P. E. Jacob & O. Papaspiliopoulos, 2013. "SMC-super-2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(3), pages 397-426, June.
    6. Alexandru V. Asimit & Raluca Vernic & Riċardas Zitikis, 2013. "Evaluating Risk Measures and Capital Allocations Based on Multi-Losses Driven by a Heavy-Tailed Background Risk: The Multivariate Pareto-II Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
    8. Paul Embrechts & Giovanni Puccetti & Ludger Rüschendorf & Ruodu Wang & Antonela Beleraj, 2014. "An Academic Response to Basel 3.5," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, February.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7305 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Pitt, Michael K. & Silva, Ralph dos Santos & Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2012. "On some properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods based on the particle filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 134-151.
    11. Zinoviy Landsman & Emiliano Valdez, 2003. "Tail Conditional Expectations for Elliptical Distributions," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 55-71.
    12. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    13. Dhaene, J. & Henrard, L. & Landsman, Z. & Vandendorpe, A. & Vanduffel, S., 2008. "Some results on the CTE-based capital allocation rule," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 855-863, April.
    14. Mathieu Bargès & Hélène Cossette & Etienne Marceau, 2009. "TVaR-based capital allocation with copulas," Working Papers hal-00431265, HAL.
    15. Drew Creal, 2012. "A Survey of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Economics and Finance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 245-296.
    16. Targino, Rodrigo S. & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for capital allocation under copula-dependent risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 206-226.
    17. Jan Dhaene & Andreas Tsanakas & Emiliano A. Valdez & Steven Vanduffel, 2012. "Optimal Capital Allocation Principles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 1-28, March.
    18. Vergé, Christelle & Morio, Jérôme & Moral, Pierre Del, 2016. "An island particle algorithm for rare event analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 63-75.
    19. Peters, Gareth W. & Targino, Rodrigo S. & Wüthrich, Mario V., 2017. "Full Bayesian analysis of claims reserving uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-53.
    20. Furman, Edward & Landsman, Zinoviy, 2005. "Risk capital decomposition for a multivariate dependent gamma portfolio," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 635-649, December.
    21. Bargès, Mathieu & Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Étienne, 2009. "TVaR-based capital allocation with copulas," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 348-361, December.
    22. P. Del Moral & G. W. Peters & Ch. Verg'e, 2012. "An introduction to particle integration methods: with applications to risk and insurance," Papers 1210.3851, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2012.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claus Baumgart & Johannes Krebs & Robert Lempertseder & Oliver Pfaffel, 2019. "Quantifying Life Insurance Risk using Least-Squares Monte Carlo," Papers 1910.03951, arXiv.org.
    2. Koike, Takaaki & Saporito, Yuri & Targino, Rodrigo, 2022. "Avoiding zero probability events when computing Value at Risk contributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-192.
    3. Albert Cohen, 2018. "Editorial: A Celebration of the Ties That Bind Us: Connections between Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-3, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnaud Dufays, 2016. "Evolutionary Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Change-Point Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Li, Jinzhu, 2022. "Asymptotic results on marginal expected shortfalls for dependent risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 146-168.
    3. Cossette, Hélène & Mailhot, Mélina & Marceau, Étienne, 2012. "TVaR-based capital allocation for multivariate compound distributions with positive continuous claim amounts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 247-256.
    4. Arnaud Dufays, 2014. "On the conjugacy of off-line and on-line Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers," Working Paper Research 263, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Etienne & Perreault, Samuel, 2015. "On two families of bivariate distributions with exponential marginals: Aggregation and capital allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-224.
    6. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2021. "Particle Rolling MCMC with Double-Block Sampling ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1175, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Ji, Liuyan & Tan, Ken Seng & Yang, Fan, 2021. "Tail dependence and heavy tailedness in extreme risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 282-293.
    8. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
    9. Raluca Vernic, 2017. "Capital Allocation for Sarmanov’s Class of Distributions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 311-330, March.
    10. Pitt, Michael K. & Silva, Ralph dos Santos & Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2012. "On some properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods based on the particle filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 134-151.
    11. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    12. Targino, Rodrigo S. & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for capital allocation under copula-dependent risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 206-226.
    13. Zhou, Ming & Dhaene, Jan & Yao, Jing, 2018. "An approximation method for risk aggregations and capital allocation rules based on additive risk factor models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 92-100.
    14. Brignone, Riccardo & Gonzato, Luca & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Efficient Quasi-Bayesian Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models Using Risk-Neutral Cumulants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Frey, Christoph & Macedo, Demian N., 2020. "Bayesian sequential stock return prediction through copulas," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    16. Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2019. "Tempered particle filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 26-44.
    17. Andras Fulop & Jeremy Heng & Junye Li, 2022. "Efficient Likelihood-based Estimation via Annealing for Dynamic Structural Macrofinance Models," Papers 2201.01094, arXiv.org.
    18. Matti Vihola & Jouni Helske & Jordan Franks, 2020. "Importance sampling type estimators based on approximate marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1339-1376, December.
    19. Ren Jiandong & Zitikis Ricardas, 2017. "CMPH: a multivariate phase-type aggregate loss distribution," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 304-315, December.
    20. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:53-:d:112832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.