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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Valentin Lang & David Mihalyi & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2023. "Borrowing Costs after Sovereign Debt Relief," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 331-358, May.
  2. Escalante, Luis & Mamboundou, Pierre, 2024. "Adapting fiscal strategies to energy and food price shocks in Portugal," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 651-665.
  3. Flechtner, Svenja & Middelanis, Martin, 2024. "The role of the commodity price boom in shaping public social spending: Evidence from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  4. Arthur Mendes & Steven Pennings, 2025. "One Rule Fits All? Heterogeneous Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters When Price Shocks Can Be Persistent: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
  5. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  7. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman & Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari, 2019. "Political Economy Analysis of the Macroeconomic Impact of National Elections in Ghana During the Fourth Republican Era, 1992 to 2016," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 28-44, May.
  8. William Ginn, 2024. "Agricultural fluctuations and global economic conditions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1037-1056, August.
  9. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Alves Pina, 2022. "Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 29970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
  12. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  13. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
  14. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Enkh-Amgalan, Elbegjargal, 2023. "Effects of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in a commodity-exporting developing economy," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  15. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
  16. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan & Gießler, Stefan, 2019. "What drives the commodity-sovereign-risk-dependence in emerging market economies?," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  17. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Håkon Tretvoll, 2021. "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 173-208, July.
  18. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  19. Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach," Working Papers 2018-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  20. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
  21. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
  22. Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Didier, Tatiana & Levine, Ross & Llovet Montanes, Ruth & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Capital market financing and firm growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  24. Sergio Urzua & Felipe Saffie & Felipe Benguria, 2017. "Demand Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics: Firm Level Responses to a Commodity Boom," 2017 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Gabriel Rodriguez & Paul Castillo B. & Junior A. Ojeda Cunya, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 1015-1050, November.
  26. William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2022. "The Contribution of Food Subsidy Policy to Monetary Policy in India," Working Papers hal-02944209, HAL.
  27. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, "undated". "Commodity Price Shocks and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0311, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  28. Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2021. "Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  29. Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 491-521, April.
  30. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_017 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Dante A. Urbina & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution of the effects of mineral commodity prices on fiscal fluctuations: empirical evidence from TVP-VAR-SV models for Peru," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 153-184, February.
  33. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2022. "Commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 109-125, February.
  34. Sugaipov, Deni, 2022. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 39-67.
  35. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  36. Markus Brueckner, 2024. "Action-Based Fiscal Consolidations and Economic Growth," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-27, May.
  37. Nahid Kalbasi Anaraki, 2021. "Federal Funds Rate Spillover to ECB Interest Rate: Are Macroeconomic Fundamentals Important?," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 9(1), pages 40-47.
  38. Khelifi, Atef, 2023. "World prices and business cycles in a small open input–output economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  39. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  40. Felipe Beltrán, 2023. "Global monetary policy surprises and their transmission to emerging market economies: an external VAR analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 975, Central Bank of Chile.
  41. Olayinka Oyekola & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2023. "Global Shocks in the US Economy: Effects on Output and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 411-435, April.
  42. Yan Carrière‐Swallow & Nicolás E. Magud & Juan F. Yépez, 2021. "Exchange rate flexibility, the real exchange rate, and adjustment to terms‐of‐trade shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 439-483, May.
  43. Audrey Sallenave & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Tolga Omay, 2024. "Can governments sleep more soundly when holding international reserves? A banking and financial vulnerabilities perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 1748-1762, March.
  44. Khelifi, Atef, 2023. "World Prices and Business Cycles of a Small Open Input-Output Economy," MPRA Paper 116519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2024. "International input–output linkages and changing business cycle volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  46. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Valencia, Oscar M. & Sánchez, Gustavo A., 2022. "How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  47. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  48. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  49. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2019. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2019/202, International Monetary Fund.
  50. Bertrand Gruss & Suhaib Kebhaj, 2019. "Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/021, International Monetary Fund.
  51. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Reprint of “Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  52. Andrés Fernández & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martin Uribe, 2020. "Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 884, Central Bank of Chile.
  53. Juan Guerra-Salas & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2021. "Search Frictions and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 258-279, January.
  54. Carrasco, Alex & Florián, David & Nivín, Rafael, 2019. "SFX Interventions, Financial Intermediation, and External Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2019-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  55. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
  56. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.
  57. Troug, Haytem, 2020. "The heterogeneity among commodity-rich economies: Beyond the prices of commodities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  58. Olayinka Oyekola, 2022. "How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Foreign Disturbances?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-33, April.
  59. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  60. Gent Bajraj & Andrés Fernández & Miguel Fuentes & Benjamín García & Jorge Lorca & Manuel Paillacar & Juan Marcos Wlasiuk, 2022. "Global Drivers and Macroeconomic Volatility in EMEs: a Dynamic Factor, General Equilibrium Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 963, Central Bank of Chile.
  61. Isha Agrawal & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2017. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/279, International Monetary Fund.
  62. Alba, Joseph D. & Liu, Jingting & Chia, Wai-Mun & Park, Donghyun, 2020. "Foreign output shock in small open economies: A welfare evaluation of monetary policy regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 101-116.
  63. Damian Romero, 2022. "Domestic Linkages and the Transmission of Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 936, Central Bank of Chile.
  64. Harding, Torfinn & Herzberg, Julika & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2021. "Commodity prices and robust environmental regulation: Evidence from deforestation in Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  65. Lubomír Civín & Luboš Smutka, 2020. "Vulnerability of European Union Economies in Agro Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-33, June.
  66. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.
  67. Fujiwara, Ippei & Kam, Timothy & Sunakawa, Takeki, 2019. "Sustainable international monetary policy cooperation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
  68. Boehm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan & Giessler, Stefan, 2021. "What drives the commodity-sovereign risk dependence in emerging market economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  69. Aysun, Uluc, 2024. "Identifying the external and internal drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  70. Aysun, Uluc, 2022. "A structural approach to measuring the degree of economic integration: Evidence from G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  71. Andrea Gazzani & Vicente Herrera & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2024. "The Asymmetric Effects of Commodity Price Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 311, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  72. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2019. "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," 2019 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  73. Yépez, Carlos & Dzikpe, Francis, 2022. "Accounting for real exchange rates in emerging economies: The role of commodity prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 476-492.
  74. Mr. Markus Eberhardt & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/153, International Monetary Fund.
  75. Bajraj, Gent & Lorca, Jorge & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2023. "On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  76. Suescun, Rodrigo, 2020. "A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 431-446.
  77. Gent Bajraj & Jorge Lorca & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2022. "On Foreign Drivers of EMEs Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 951, Central Bank of Chile.
  78. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  79. Corbo, Vesna & Di Casola, Paola, 2020. "Drivers of consumer prices and exchange rates in small open economies," Working Paper Series 387, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  80. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp2020 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 665-672, August.
  82. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
  83. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Oscar M. Valencia & Gustavo A. Sánchez, 2024. "Debt affordability in developed and emerging market economies: the role of fiscal rules," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 377-393, June.
  84. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Fernando M. Martin & Juan M. Sanchez, 2023. "External Shocks versus Domestic Policies in Emerging Markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(2), pages 108-121, April.
  85. Damian Romero, 2022. "Market Incompleteness, Consumption Heterogeneity and Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 950, Central Bank of Chile.
  86. Faryna, Oleksandr & Simola, Heli, 2021. "The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A global VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
  87. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  88. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
  89. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  90. Miloš Poliak & Ekaterina Salamakhina, 2024. "Ensuring Fair Compensation: Analyzing and Adjusting Freight Forwarder Liability Limits," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, April.
  91. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_009 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
  93. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Flights-to-safety and macroeconomic adjustment in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  94. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  95. Bernhard Tröster & Karin Küblböck, 2020. "Unprecedented but not Unpredictable: Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Commodity-Dependent Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1430-1449, December.
  96. Horvath, Jaroslav & Rothman, Philip, 2021. "Mortgage spreads, asset prices, and business cycles in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  97. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16362, Universidad EAFIT.
  98. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  99. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  100. Alejandro Torres-García & Jaime Montoya-Arbeláez & Laura Wberth-Escobar, 2022. "Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2081-2110, November.
  101. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "World Commodity Prices and Economic Activity in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 347-374, April.
  102. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2017. "Emerging economies business cycles: The role of commodity terms of trade news," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 368-376.
  103. Denis Belomestny & Ekaterina Krymova & Andrey Polbin, 2020. "Estimating TVP-VAR models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Papers 2008.00718, arXiv.org.
  104. Corbo, Vesna & Di Casola, Paola, 2022. "Drivers of consumer prices and exchange rates in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  105. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  106. Barrail, Zulma, 2020. "Business cycle implications of rising household credit market participation in emerging countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  107. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman & Irene Susana Egyir, 2019. "Economic Shocks and the Growth of the Construction Industry in Ghana Over the 50-Year Period From 1968 to 2017," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, June.
  108. Mikhail Andreev & M. Udara Peiris & Alexander Shirobokov & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2024. "Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging economies," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 167-197, June.
  109. Mukhlis MUKHLIS & Raja MASBAR & Sofyan SYAHNUR & M. Shabri Abd. MAJID, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities Between World Oil Price And Indonesia’S Cocoa Market: Evidence From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And The 2011 European Debt Crisis," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 217-233, June.
  110. Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2021. "Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  111. Aysun, Uluc & Wright, Cardel, 2024. "A two-step dynamic factor modelling approach for forecasting inflation in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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