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The paradox of fossil fuel subsidies

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  • Ginn, William

Abstract

Fossil fuel subsidies represent a significant and widespread fiscal tool that governments can employ to maintain stability in domestic price levels. We develop and estimate a Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored for Malaysia, a net-exporting energy economy that captures this key channel of fiscal policy intervention. Fossil fuel price subsidies are often motivated as a means to stabilize vulnerable households, yet the government of Malaysia does not have a targeting policy. Accordingly, we use the model to address how consumption responds to an increase in inflation driven by a fossil fuel price shock. The results indicate that, while a fossil fuel price subsidy stabilizes consumption, we find that a subsidy can ”crowd out” non-energy consumption as fiscal intervention increases. Furthermore, we find that while aggregate welfare increases with fiscal stabilization, the highest level of welfare is achieved with targeted subsidies, a contradiction which questions the merit of the current Malaysian energy policy.

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  • Ginn, William, 2024. "The paradox of fossil fuel subsidies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 333-358.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:83:y:2024:i:c:p:333-358
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.06.001
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Commodities; Fossil fuel energy price; Price stabilization; DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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