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Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Mikhail Andreev

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • M. Udara Peiris

    (Oberlin College)

  • Alexander Shirobokov

    (ICEF, HSE University, Russian Federation)

  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured domestic debt. We show that allowing default rates to vary endogenously over the business cycle amplifies the estimated contribution of commodity price shocks. Endogenous default introduces time-varying wedges that amplify the response of commodity price shocks through demand and income effects rather than the relative price effects that are found in the country risk-premium, balance sheet, and financial accelerator channels. We find that the contribution of commodity prices to explaining fluctuations in GDP rises from 2.5 to 33.6% while for deposits and non-performing loans, it increases from 5.3% and 1.6% to 71.3% and 60.4%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Andreev & M. Udara Peiris & Alexander Shirobokov & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2024. "Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging economies," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 167-197, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:20:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10436-024-00443-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-024-00443-8
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    2. Xuan Wang, 2020. "A Macro-Financial Perspective to Analyse Maturity Mismatch and Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-064/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Martínez, J-F. & Peiris, M.U. & Tsomocos, D.P., 2020. "Macroprudential policy analysis in an estimated DSGE model with a heterogeneous banking system: An application to Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    4. Li, Kexin & Chen, Zhongfei & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2024. "Capital inflow liberalization and bank credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Small open economy; Emerging markets; Commodity prices; Financial stability; Macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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