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Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2023

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  • Luciana Juvenal
  • Ivan Petrella

Abstract

We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. monetary policy and global risk appetite drive the global financial cycle in EMDEs. Eased global credit conditions, attributed to looser U.S. monetary policy or lower global risk appetite, lead to a rise in export prices, higher output, a decrease in government borrowing costs, and stimulate greater capital flows. The endogenous response of export prices amplifies the output effects of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy while country spreads magnify the impact of shifts in global risk appetite.
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  • Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2023. "Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15044
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    1. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, "undated". "Commodity Price Shocks and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0311, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Yan, Zichun & Wu, Chaonan & Zhang, Jingjia & Wang, Zehan & Lađevac, Ivona, 2024. "Asymmetric impact of energy prices on financial cycles based on interval time series modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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