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Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility

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Abstract

This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multi-sector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced in developed economies. We find that these differences amplify the response of emerging economies to commodity price fluctuations. We show evidence consistent with this mechanism using cross-country data.

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  • David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Håkon Tretvoll, 2018. "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility," Working Papers 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2018-005
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2018.005
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180131
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    Cited by:

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    2. Emre Özçelik & Mustafa Tuğan, 2024. "Terms‐of‐trade effects of productivity shocks in developing economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1587-1606, September.
    3. Carrera, Jorge & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Toledo, Fernando, 2023. "Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 179-190.
    4. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2020. "The Impact of Industrialized Countries’ Monetary Policy on Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 550-583, September.
    5. Dieci, Roberto & Mignot, Sarah & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2022. "Production delays, supply distortions and endogenous price dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 182, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    6. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Li, Yiliang & Bai, Xiwen & Wang, Qi & Ma, Zhongjun, 2022. "A big data approach to cargo type prediction and its implications for oil trade estimation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Diego Daruich & Julian Kozlowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 64-108, July.
    9. Chen, Xin & Yang, Dan & Xu, Yan & Xia, Yin & Wang, Dong & Shen, Haipeng, 2023. "Testing and support recovery of correlation structures for matrix-valued observations with an application to stock market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 544-564.
    10. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16362, Universidad EAFIT.
    11. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis," Working Papers 2015, Banco de España.
    12. Ridwan Karim & Andrey Stoyanov, 2020. "Output volatility, composition of trade, and transmission of economic shocks across countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 626-655, August.
    13. Gustavo Romero Cardoso & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2024. "What’s in a headline? News impact on the Brazilian economy," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    14. Damian Romero, 2022. "Domestic Linkages and the Transmission of Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 936, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.
    17. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycles; output volatility; emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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