IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v13y2021i3p173-208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • David Kohn
  • Fernando Leibovici
  • Håkon Tretvoll

Abstract

This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced in developed economies. We find that these differences amplify the response of emerging economies to commodity price fluctuations. We show evidence consistent with this mechanism using cross-country data.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Håkon Tretvoll, 2021. "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 173-208, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:173-208
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20180131
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E117241V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20180131.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20180131.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/mac.20180131?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2014. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 209-245, October.
    2. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    3. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2015. "How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    5. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    6. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2017. "Emerging economies business cycles: The role of commodity terms of trade news," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 368-376.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    9. Hevia, Constantino, 2014. "Emerging market fluctuations: What makes the difference?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 33-49.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    11. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    12. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    13. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    14. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    16. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    17. Fernández, Andrés & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2017. "World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 2-14.
    18. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 63-86, May.
    19. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    20. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    21. Salim B. Furth, 2010. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    22. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    23. Bevan, David & Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1993. "Trade shocks in developing countries: Consequences and policy responses," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 557-565, April.
    24. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    25. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    26. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    27. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    28. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1265-1293, November.
    29. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    30. Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2014. "Finance and Misallocation: Evidence from Plant-Level Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 422-458, February.
    31. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    32. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lebrand, Mathilde & Vasishtha, Garima & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Energy price shocks and current account balances: Evidence from emerging market and developing economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis," Working Papers 2015, Banco de España.
    3. Damian Romero, 2022. "Domestic Linkages and the Transmission of Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 936, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Emre Özçelik & Mustafa Tuğan, 2024. "Terms‐of‐trade effects of productivity shocks in developing economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1587-1606, September.
    6. Diego Daruich & Julian Kozlowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 64-108, July.
    7. Carrera, Jorge & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Toledo, Fernando, 2023. "Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 179-190.
    8. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.
    9. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2020. "The Impact of Industrialized Countries’ Monetary Policy on Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 550-583, September.
    10. Dieci, Roberto & Mignot, Sarah & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2022. "Production delays, supply distortions and endogenous price dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 182, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    11. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Chen, Xin & Yang, Dan & Xu, Yan & Xia, Yin & Wang, Dong & Shen, Haipeng, 2023. "Testing and support recovery of correlation structures for matrix-valued observations with an application to stock market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 544-564.
    14. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.
    15. Ridwan Karim & Andrey Stoyanov, 2020. "Output volatility, composition of trade, and transmission of economic shocks across countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 626-655, August.
    16. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16362, Universidad EAFIT.
    17. Li, Yiliang & Bai, Xiwen & Wang, Qi & Ma, Zhongjun, 2022. "A big data approach to cargo type prediction and its implications for oil trade estimation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    18. Gustavo Romero Cardoso & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2024. "What’s in a headline? News impact on the Brazilian economy," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    2. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    3. Jacek Rothert, 2012. "Productivity or Demand? Identifying Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economies," 2012 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Jacek Rothert & Mohammad Rahmati, 2014. "Business Cycle Accounting in a Small Open Economy," Departmental Working Papers 46, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    5. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    6. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Barrail, Zulma, 2020. "Business cycle implications of rising household credit market participation in emerging countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2017. "The price of imported capital and consumption fluctuations in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 67-81.
    9. Hevia, Constantino, 2014. "Emerging market fluctuations: What makes the difference?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 33-49.
    10. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Enkh-Amgalan, Elbegjargal, 2023. "Effects of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in a commodity-exporting developing economy," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    11. Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
    12. Suescun, Rodrigo, 2020. "A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 431-446.
    13. Petrella, Ivan & Di Pace, Federico & Juvenal, Luciana, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," CEPR Discussion Papers 14594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Andrés Fernández & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martin Uribe, 2020. "Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 884, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Troug, Haytem, 2020. "The heterogeneity among commodity-rich economies: Beyond the prices of commodities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    18. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    20. Marc-Andre Letendre & Sabreena Obaid, 2019. "Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Interest Rate Shocks vs Trend Shocks," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-07, McMaster University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:173-208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.