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Identifying the external and internal drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies

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  • Aysun, Uluc

Abstract

This paper estimates a 3-country DSGE model to identify the drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies (SOE). In addition to the usual cross-country linkages through trade and asset holdings, the model features common shocks that affect economies symmetrically. Using data from Jamaica, the US and the G-7 region (excluding the US), the paper finds that external financial shocks are the primary drivers of exchange rate fluctuations in the SOE. While domestic financial shocks are bigger contributors than US and G-7 specific shocks, shocks that are common across the US and the G-7 generally play the main role. Nonfinancial shocks, domestic and external, are inconsequential for exchange rate volatility. Inferences from a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables are consistent with these results.

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  • Aysun, Uluc, 2024. "Identifying the external and internal drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:58:y:2024:i:c:s1566014123000900
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101085
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    Cited by:

    1. Aysun, Uluc & Wright, Cardel, 2024. "A two-step dynamic factor modelling approach for forecasting inflation in small open economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jamaica; Exchange rates; DSGE; Small open economy; G-7; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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