IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v55y2022i4d10.1007_s10644-021-09377-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Torres-García

    (Universidad EAFIT)

  • Jaime Montoya-Arbeláez

    (Universidad de Antioquia)

  • Laura Wberth-Escobar

Abstract

We study the role of commodity price shocks in explaining business cycles in emerging economies, but including a financial transmission mechanism that has been understudied in the conventional literature. A negative commodity price shock not only affects the aggregate demand but also increases a firm’s external debt and the cost of new debt. Consequently, the aggregate investment decreases, amplifying the output contraction. Using information for five Latin American commodity-exporting countries, we find that these shocks explain between 29 and 40% of output variation, supporting their importance as a source of business cycles. Moreover, the inclusion of financial variables to capture the balance sheet effect causes an overreaction of output of between 20 and 22% compared with a conventional model, verifying the importance of this mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Torres-García & Jaime Montoya-Arbeláez & Laura Wberth-Escobar, 2022. "Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2081-2110, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:55:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-021-09377-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-021-09377-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10644-021-09377-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10644-021-09377-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2004. "Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 321-340, July.
    3. Bonomo, Marco & Martins, Betina & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2003. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 368-396, December.
    4. Fernández, Andrés & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2017. "World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 2-14.
    5. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    6. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    8. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    9. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    10. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    11. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    12. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    13. Pratap, Sangeeta & Lobato, Ignacio & Somuano, Alejandro, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 450-471, December.
    14. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    15. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    16. Benavente, Jose Miguel & Johnson, Christian A. & Morande, Felipe G., 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 397-416, December.
    17. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    18. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    19. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    20. Apostolou, Apostolos & Beirne, John, 2017. "Volatility spillovers of Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheet expansions to emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2044, European Central Bank.
    21. Stephanie Schmitt†Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2018. "How Important Are Terms†Of†Trade Shocks?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 85-111, February.
    22. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    23. Samuel W. Malone, 2009. "Balance Sheet Effects, External Volatility, and Emerging Market Spreads," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 273-299, November.
    24. Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
    25. Francisco Roch, 2019. "The adjustment to commodity price shocks," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 437-467, January.
    26. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Flechtner, Svenja & Middelanis, Martin, 2024. "The role of the commodity price boom in shaping public social spending: Evidence from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.
    2. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16362, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    4. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yigit, 2005. "Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0507, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2005.
    5. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    6. Ottonello, Pablo, 2021. "Optimal exchange-rate policy under collateral constraints and wage rigidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2021. "Effects of foreign currency debt on investment of the firms in emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 4993-5004, October.
    9. Vincent Bodart & François Courtoy & Erica Perego, 2021. "World Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustments in Developing Commodity Producing Countries," Working Papers 2021-01, CEPII research center.
    10. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Deuda empresarial denominada en dólares y depreciación: ¿mucho ruido y pocas nueces?," Research Department Publications 4412, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Kim, Yun Jung, 2016. "Foreign currency exposure and balance sheet effects: A firm-level analysis for Korea," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 64-79.
    13. Demirkılıç, Serkan, 2021. "Balance sheet effects of foreign currency debt and real exchange rate on corporate investment: evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    14. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    15. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    16. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Gabriel Rodriguez & Paul Castillo B. & Junior A. Ojeda Cunya, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 1015-1050, November.
    18. Kim, Yun Jung & Tesar, Linda L. & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "The impact of foreign liabilities on small firms: Firm-level evidence from the Korean crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 209-230.
    19. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Ricardo Bebczuk & Arturo Galindo & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Giovanni Facchini & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Economic Development in Latin America, chapter 8, pages 102-117, Palgrave Macmillan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging economies; Commodity prices; International business cycles; Balance sheet effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:55:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-021-09377-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.