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Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check

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Cited by:

  1. Sofiane Aboura, 2014. "When the U.S. Stock Market Becomes Extreme?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, May.
  2. Jian Zhou, 2013. "Extreme risk spillover among international REIT markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 91-103, January.
  3. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Doumpos, Michael & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2013. "Portfolio optimization and index tracking for the shipping stock and freight markets using evolutionary algorithms," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 16-34.
  4. Olivier Ledoit & Pedro Santa-Clara & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Flexible Multivariate GARCH Modeling with an Application to International Stock Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 735-747, August.
  5. Ergün, A. Tolga & Jun, Jongbyung, 2010. "Time-varying higher-order conditional moments and forecasting intraday VaR and Expected Shortfall," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 264-272, August.
  6. Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2017. "Conditional market timing in the mutual fund industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1355-1366.
  7. Christina Ziegler, 2009. "Testing Predicitive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  8. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
  9. Szubzda Filip & Chlebus Marcin, 2019. "Comparison of Block Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold Value-at-Risk models for market risk in various economic conditions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 70-85, January.
  10. Wilson Calmon & Eduardo Ferioli & Davi Lettieri & Johann Soares & Adrian Pizzinga, 2021. "An Extensive Comparison of Some Well‐Established Value at Risk Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(1), pages 148-166, April.
  11. Alex Yi-Hou Huang & Tsung-Wei Tseng, 2009. "Forecast of value at risk for equity indices: an analysis from developed and emerging markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 393-409, August.
  12. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  14. Hu, Shuowen & Poskitt, D.S. & Zhang, Xibin, 2021. "Bayesian estimation for a semiparametric nonlinear volatility model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 361-370.
  15. Hu, Shuowen & Poskitt, D.S. & Zhang, Xibin, 2012. "Bayesian adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation of irregular multivariate distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 732-740.
  16. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
  17. Joanna Górka, 2010. "The Sign RCA Models: Comparing Predictive Accuracy of VaR Measures," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 61-80.
  18. Huang Dashan & Yu Baimin & Lu Zudi & Fabozzi Frank J. & Focardi Sergio & Fukushima Masao, 2010. "Index-Exciting CAViaR: A New Empirical Time-Varying Risk Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-26, March.
  19. Erik Kole & Thijs Markwat & Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk, 2017. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 649-677.
  20. Abdul Hakim, 2009. "Forcasting portofolio value-at-risk for international stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange emerging market evidence," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 13-26, April.
  21. Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
  22. Nikkin L. Beronilla & Dennis S. Mapa, 2008. "Range-based models in estimating value-at-risk (VaR)," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 87-99, December.
  23. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1282, July.
  24. esposito, francesco paolo & cummins, mark, 2015. "Multiple hypothesis testing of market risk forecasting models," MPRA Paper 64986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Yannick Hoga, 2023. "The Estimation Risk in Extreme Systemic Risk Forecasts," Papers 2304.10349, arXiv.org.
  26. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
  27. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
  28. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Baker, Paul L. & Platanakis, Emmanouil, 2024. "A False Discovery Rate approach to optimal volatility forecasting model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 881-902.
  29. Lang, Chunlin & Hu, Yang & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg), 2024. "Tail risk connectedness in G7 stock markets: Understanding the impact of COVID-19 and related variants," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
  30. Wang, Jying-Nan & Du, Jiangze & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2018. "Measuring long-term tail risk: Evaluating the performance of the square-root-of-time rule," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 120-138.
  31. Dias, Alexandra, 2013. "Market capitalization and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5248-5260.
  32. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:201-218 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
  34. Huang, Dashan & Yu, Baimin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Fukushima, Masao, 2009. "CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 511-518, July.
  35. Seok-Oh Jeong & Kee-Hoon Kang, 2009. "Nonparametric estimation of value-at-risk," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1225-1238.
  36. Gonzalo Cortazar & Alejandro Bernales & Diether Beuermann, 2005. "Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading," Finance 0512030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Yuru Sun & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin, 2023. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts for risk management," Papers 2303.01651, arXiv.org.
  38. Bei, Shuhua & Yang, Aijun & Pei, Haotian & Si, Xiaoli, 2023. "Price Risk Analysis using GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  39. Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Troster Victor & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
  40. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  41. Kai Schindelhauer & Chen Zhou, 2018. "Value-at-Risk prediction using option-implied risk measures," DNB Working Papers 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  42. Lidia Sanchis-Marco & Antonio Rubia Serrano, 2011. "On downside risk predictability through liquidity and trading activity: a quantile regression approach," Working Papers. Serie AD 2011-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  43. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Are the KOSPI 200 implied volatilities useful in value-at-risk models?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 43-64.
  44. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Didier Maillard, 2019. "Computation of the corrected Cornish–Fisher expansion using the response surface methodology: application to VaR and CVaR," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 423-453, October.
  45. Cao, Guangxi & Zhang, Minjia, 2015. "Extreme values in the Chinese and American stock markets based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 25-35.
  46. Santosh Mishra & Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Jumps in Rank and Expected Returns. Introducing Varying Cross-sectional Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 356, Econometric Society.
  47. James Ming Chen, 2018. "On Exactitude in Financial Regulation: Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and Expectiles," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, June.
  48. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A., 2005. "Estimation of Value-at-Risk by extreme value and conventional methods: a comparative evaluation of their predictive performance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 209-228, July.
  49. Hajo Holzmann & Matthias Eulert, 2014. "The role of the information set for forecasting - with applications to risk management," Papers 1404.7653, arXiv.org.
  50. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.
  51. Mateusz Buczyński & Marcin Chlebus, 2019. "Old-fashioned parametric models are still the best. A comparison of Value-at-Risk approaches in several volatility states," Working Papers 2019-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  52. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
  53. Auerbach, Jonathan & Wan, Phyllis, 2020. "Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 814-828.
  54. O’Brien, James & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2017. "An evaluation of bank measures for market risk before, during and after the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 215-234.
  55. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
  56. Jian Zhou & Randy Anderson, 2012. "Extreme Risk Measures for International REIT Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 152-170, June.
  57. Reber, Beat, 2017. "Does mispricing, liquidity or third-party certification contribute to IPO downside risk?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-53.
  58. Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Alfonso Novales, 2020. "A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 1411-1448, September.
  59. James M. O'Brien & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2014. "An Evaluation of Bank VaR Measures for Market Risk During and Before the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  60. Marc S. Paolella, 2016. "Stable-GARCH Models for Financial Returns: Fast Estimation and Tests for Stability," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-28, May.
  61. Fries, Christian P. & Nigbur, Tobias & Seeger, Norman, 2017. "Displaced relative changes in historical simulation: Application to risk measures of interest rates with phases of negative rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-198.
  62. Bucevska Vesna, 2013. "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64, March.
  63. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A., 2008. "The extreme-value dependence of Asia-Pacific equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 197-208, July.
  64. Hu, Yang & Lang, Chunlin & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2023. "Exploring the dynamic behaviour of commodity market tail risk connectedness during the negative WTI pricing event," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  65. Sang Hoon Kang & Seong-Min Yoon, 2009. "Value-at-Risk Analysis for Asian Emerging Markets: Asymmetry and Fat Tails in Returns Innovation," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 387-411.
  66. Codrut Florin Ivascu & Daniela Serban, 2023. "Value at Risk Estimation for Non-Gaussian Distributions," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 15(2), pages 181-190, December.
  67. Filippo Curti & Marco Migueis, 2016. "Predicting Operational Loss Exposure Using Past Losses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Nieto, María Rosa, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  69. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2011. "Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 443-459.
  70. Maghyereh Aktham Issa & Awartani Basel, 2012. "Modeling and Forecasting Value-at-Risk in the UAE Stock Markets: The Role of Long Memory, Fat Tails and Asymmetries in Return Innovations," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, August.
  71. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  72. Roland Füss & Zeno Adams & Dieter G Kaiser, 2010. "The predictive power of value-at-risk models in commodity futures markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 261-285, October.
  73. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Livada, Alexandra, 2012. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models before and after the Financial Crisis of 2008: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 80463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Wang, David Han-Min & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Liu, Hong-Quan, 2013. "Heterogeneous effect of high-tech industrial R&D spending on economic growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1990-1993.
  75. Ibrahim Ergen, 2015. "Two-step methods in VaR prediction and the importance of fat tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1013-1030, June.
  76. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.
  77. Alex YiHou Huang, 2009. "A value-at-risk approach with kernel estimator," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 379-395.
  78. Siva Kiran GUPTHA. K & Prabhakar RAO. R, 2019. "GARCH based VaR estimation: An empirical evidence from BRICS stock markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 201-218, Winter.
  79. Asif Saeed & Ammar Ali Gull & Asad Ali Rind & Muhammad Shujaat Mubarik & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Do socially responsible firms demand high‐quality audits? An international evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2235-2255, April.
  80. Borer, Daniel & Perera, Devmali & Fauzi, Fitriya & Chau, Trinh Nguyen, 2023. "Identifying systemic risk of assets during international financial crises using Value at Risk elasticities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
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  82. Jian Zhou, 2012. "Extreme risk measures for REITs: a comparison among alternative methods," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 113-126, January.
  83. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2014. "A new quantile regression forecasting model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 779-784.
  84. Yang, Jie & Feng, Yun & Yang, Hao, 2024. "The spillover and comovement of downside and upside tail risks among crude oil futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  85. Xiaoying Huang, 2017. "A Double-Exponential Jump model and its application to risk measure in Wheat spot market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1298-1309.
  86. Slim, Skander & Koubaa, Yosra & BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2017. "Value-at-Risk under Lévy GARCH models: Evidence from global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-53.
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  88. Rubia, Antonio & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2013. "On downside risk predictability through liquidity and trading activity: A dynamic quantile approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 202-219.
  89. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  90. Naqvi, Syed Muhammad Waqar Azeem & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Orangzab & Ali, Muhammad, 2016. "Value at Risk at Asian Emerging Stock Markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(3), pages 311-319.
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  93. Julija Cerović & Vesna Karadžić, 2015. "Extreme Value Theory In Emerging Markets: Evidence From Montenegrin Stock Exchange," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 87-116, July - Se.
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