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Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check

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Cited by:

  1. Sofiane Aboura, 2014. "When the U.S. Stock Market Becomes Extreme?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, May.
  2. Jian Zhou, 2013. "Extreme risk spillover among international REIT markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 91-103, January.
  3. Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2017. "Conditional market timing in the mutual fund industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1355-1366.
  4. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Doumpos, Michael & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2013. "Portfolio optimization and index tracking for the shipping stock and freight markets using evolutionary algorithms," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 16-34.
  5. Olivier Ledoit & Pedro Santa-Clara & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Flexible Multivariate GARCH Modeling with an Application to International Stock Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 735-747, August.
  6. Ergün, A. Tolga & Jun, Jongbyung, 2010. "Time-varying higher-order conditional moments and forecasting intraday VaR and Expected Shortfall," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 264-272, August.
  7. Christina Ziegler, 2009. "Testing Predicitive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  8. Hajo Holzmann & Matthias Eulert, 2014. "The role of the information set for forecasting - with applications to risk management," Papers 1404.7653, arXiv.org.
  9. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.
  10. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
  11. Szubzda Filip & Chlebus Marcin, 2019. "Comparison of Block Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold Value-at-Risk models for market risk in various economic conditions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 70-85, January.
  12. Mateusz Buczyński & Marcin Chlebus, 2019. "Old-fashioned parametric models are still the best. A comparison of Value-at-Risk approaches in several volatility states," Working Papers 2019-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  13. Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Troster Victor & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
  14. Wilson Calmon & Eduardo Ferioli & Davi Lettieri & Johann Soares & Adrian Pizzinga, 2021. "An Extensive Comparison of Some Well‐Established Value at Risk Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(1), pages 148-166, April.
  15. Alex Yi-Hou Huang & Tsung-Wei Tseng, 2009. "Forecast of value at risk for equity indices: an analysis from developed and emerging markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 393-409, August.
  16. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
  17. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  18. Auerbach, Jonathan & Wan, Phyllis, 2020. "Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 814-828.
  19. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  20. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
  21. Hu, Shuowen & Poskitt, D.S. & Zhang, Xibin, 2021. "Bayesian estimation for a semiparametric nonlinear volatility model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 361-370.
  22. Hu, Shuowen & Poskitt, D.S. & Zhang, Xibin, 2012. "Bayesian adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation of irregular multivariate distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 732-740.
  23. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
  24. O’Brien, James & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2017. "An evaluation of bank measures for market risk before, during and after the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 215-234.
  25. Joanna Górka, 2010. "The Sign RCA Models: Comparing Predictive Accuracy of VaR Measures," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 61-80.
  26. Huang Dashan & Yu Baimin & Lu Zudi & Fabozzi Frank J. & Focardi Sergio & Fukushima Masao, 2010. "Index-Exciting CAViaR: A New Empirical Time-Varying Risk Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-26, March.
  27. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
  28. Erik Kole & Thijs Markwat & Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk, 2017. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 649-677.
  29. Jian Zhou & Randy Anderson, 2012. "Extreme Risk Measures for International REIT Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 152-170, June.
  30. Reber, Beat, 2017. "Does mispricing, liquidity or third-party certification contribute to IPO downside risk?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-53.
  31. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Didier Maillard, 2019. "Computation of the corrected Cornish–Fisher expansion using the response surface methodology: application to VaR and CVaR," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 423-453, October.
  32. Abdul Hakim, 2009. "Forcasting portofolio value-at-risk for international stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange emerging market evidence," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 13-26, April.
  33. Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Alfonso Novales, 2020. "A dominance approach for comparing the performance of VaR forecasting models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 1411-1448, September.
  34. James M. O'Brien & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2014. "An Evaluation of Bank VaR Measures for Market Risk During and Before the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Marc S. Paolella, 2016. "Stable-GARCH Models for Financial Returns: Fast Estimation and Tests for Stability," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-28, May.
  36. Fries, Christian P. & Nigbur, Tobias & Seeger, Norman, 2017. "Displaced relative changes in historical simulation: Application to risk measures of interest rates with phases of negative rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-198.
  37. Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
  38. Nikkin L. Beronilla & Dennis S. Mapa, 2008. "Range-based models in estimating value-at-risk (VaR)," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 87-99, December.
  39. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1282, July.
  40. Bucevska Vesna, 2013. "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64, March.
  41. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A., 2008. "The extreme-value dependence of Asia-Pacific equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 197-208, July.
  42. Hu, Yang & Lang, Chunlin & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2023. "Exploring the dynamic behaviour of commodity market tail risk connectedness during the negative WTI pricing event," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  43. esposito, francesco paolo & cummins, mark, 2015. "Multiple hypothesis testing of market risk forecasting models," MPRA Paper 64986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Sang Hoon Kang & Seong-Min Yoon, 2009. "Value-at-Risk Analysis for Asian Emerging Markets: Asymmetry and Fat Tails in Returns Innovation," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 387-411.
  45. Codrut Florin Ivascu & Daniela Serban, 2023. "Value at Risk Estimation for Non-Gaussian Distributions," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 15(2), pages 181-190, December.
  46. Yannick Hoga, 2023. "The Estimation Risk in Extreme Systemic Risk Forecasts," Papers 2304.10349, arXiv.org.
  47. Filippo Curti & Marco Migueis, 2016. "Predicting Operational Loss Exposure Using Past Losses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. Nieto, María Rosa, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  49. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
  50. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2011. "Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 443-459.
  51. Maghyereh Aktham Issa & Awartani Basel, 2012. "Modeling and Forecasting Value-at-Risk in the UAE Stock Markets: The Role of Long Memory, Fat Tails and Asymmetries in Return Innovations," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, August.
  52. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Baker, Paul L. & Platanakis, Emmanouil, 2024. "A False Discovery Rate approach to optimal volatility forecasting model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 881-902.
  53. Lang, Chunlin & Hu, Yang & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg), 2024. "Tail risk connectedness in G7 stock markets: Understanding the impact of COVID-19 and related variants," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
  54. Wang, Jying-Nan & Du, Jiangze & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2018. "Measuring long-term tail risk: Evaluating the performance of the square-root-of-time rule," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 120-138.
  55. Dias, Alexandra, 2013. "Market capitalization and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5248-5260.
  56. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  57. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:201-218 is not listed on IDEAS
  58. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
  59. Huang, Dashan & Yu, Baimin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Fukushima, Masao, 2009. "CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 511-518, July.
  60. Roland Füss & Zeno Adams & Dieter G Kaiser, 2010. "The predictive power of value-at-risk models in commodity futures markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 261-285, October.
  61. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Livada, Alexandra, 2012. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models before and after the Financial Crisis of 2008: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 80463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  62. Seok-Oh Jeong & Kee-Hoon Kang, 2009. "Nonparametric estimation of value-at-risk," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1225-1238.
  63. Wang, David Han-Min & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Liu, Hong-Quan, 2013. "Heterogeneous effect of high-tech industrial R&D spending on economic growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1990-1993.
  64. Gonzalo Cortazar & Alejandro Bernales & Diether Beuermann, 2005. "Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading," Finance 0512030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Yuru Sun & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin, 2023. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts for risk management," Papers 2303.01651, arXiv.org.
  66. Ibrahim Ergen, 2015. "Two-step methods in VaR prediction and the importance of fat tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1013-1030, June.
  67. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.
  68. Alex YiHou Huang, 2009. "A value-at-risk approach with kernel estimator," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 379-395.
  69. Siva Kiran GUPTHA. K & Prabhakar RAO. R, 2019. "GARCH based VaR estimation: An empirical evidence from BRICS stock markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 201-218, Winter.
  70. Bei, Shuhua & Yang, Aijun & Pei, Haotian & Si, Xiaoli, 2023. "Price Risk Analysis using GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  71. Asif Saeed & Ammar Ali Gull & Asad Ali Rind & Muhammad Shujaat Mubarik & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Do socially responsible firms demand high‐quality audits? An international evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2235-2255, April.
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  77. Kai Schindelhauer & Chen Zhou, 2018. "Value-at-Risk prediction using option-implied risk measures," DNB Working Papers 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  78. Xiaoying Huang, 2017. "A Double-Exponential Jump model and its application to risk measure in Wheat spot market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1298-1309.
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