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Nonparametric estimation of value-at-risk

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  • Seok-Oh Jeong
  • Kee-Hoon Kang

Abstract

This paper develops a fully nonparametric method for estimating value-at-risk based on the adaptive volatility estimation and the nonparametric quantile estimation. The proposed method is simple, fast and easy to implement. We evaluated its numerical performance on the basis of Monte Carlo study for numerous models. We also provided an empirical application to KOrean Stock Price Index data, which turned out to be successful by backtesting.

Suggested Citation

  • Seok-Oh Jeong & Kee-Hoon Kang, 2009. "Nonparametric estimation of value-at-risk," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1225-1238.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:36:y:2009:i:11:p:1225-1238
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760802607517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang & Jeong, Seok-Oh, 2008. "Nonparametric Risk Management With Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 910-923.
    2. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Lange, Steve, 1999. "Forecasting financial market volatility: Sample frequency vis-a-vis forecast horizon," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 457-477, December.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 318-334, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Hambuckers & C. Heuchenne, 2017. "A robust statistical approach to select adequate error distributions for financial returns," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 137-161, January.

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