IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpfi/0512030.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzalo Cortazar

    (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile)

  • Alejandro Bernales

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Diether Beuermann

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper deals with the issue of calculating daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures within an environment of thin trading. Our approach focuses on fixed income portfolios with low frequency of transactions in which the missing data problem makes VaR measures difficult to calculate. We propose and implement a methodology to calculate VaR measures with an incomplete panel of prices. The methodology is composed of three phases: Phase I, generates a complete panel of prices, using a term-structure dynamic model of interest rates. Phase II, calculates portfolio VaR measures with several alternative methods using the complete panel data generated in phase I. Phase III, shows how to back-test the VaR measures obtained in phase II using the original incomplete panel of prices. We provide an empirical implementation of the methodology for the Chilean fixed income market. The proposed methodology seems to provide reliable VaR measures for thinly traded markets addressing an important issue for financial risk management in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo Cortazar & Alejandro Bernales & Diether Beuermann, 2005. "Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading," Finance 0512030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0512030
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0512/0512030.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. "Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-348, May.
    4. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "A coherent framework for stress-testing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199.
    8. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    9. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    10. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    11. Casper De Vries & Jon Danielsson & Casper G, de Vries, 1996. "Tail Index and Quantile Estimation with Very High Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 116, CESifo.
    12. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    13. Nadima El-Hassan & Paul Kofman, 2003. "Tracking Error and Active Portfolio Management," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 183-207, September.
    14. Stoughton, Neal M. & Zechner, Josef, 2007. "Optimal capital allocation using RAROC(TM) and EVA(R)," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 312-342, July.
    15. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    17. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    19. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
    20. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Apr), pages 39-69.
    21. Claudio Romano & Annalisa Di Clemente, 2005. "Measuring Portfolio value-at-risk by a copula-evt based approach," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2005(85).
    22. Viviana Fernandez, 2003. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(1), pages 57-85, June.
    23. Brendan O. Bradley & Murad S. Taqqu, 2004. "An Extreme Value Theory Approach To The Allocation Of Multiple Assets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 1031-1068.
    24. Dowd, Kevin, 2000. "Adjusting for risk:: An improved Sharpe ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 209-222, July.
    25. Fernandez, Viviana, 2005. "Risk management under extreme events," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 113-148.
    26. Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, 1998. "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England.
    27. Huisman, R. & Koedijik, K.G. & Pownall, R.A.J., 1998. "VaR-x: Fat Tails in Financial Risk Management," Papers 98-54, Southern California - School of Business Administration.
    28. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Naranjo, Lorezo, 2003. "Term Structure Estimation in Low-Frequency Transaction Markets: A Kalman Filter Approach with Incomplete Panel-Data," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt56h775cz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    29. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    30. Miguel T. Delfiner & Matías A. Gutiérrez Girault, 2002. "Aplicación de la teoría de valores extremos al gerenciamiento del riesgo," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 217, Universidad del CEMA.
    31. Guermat, Cherif & Harris, Richard D. F., 2002. "Forecasting value at risk allowing for time variation in the variance and kurtosis of portfolio returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 409-419.
    32. Stoughton, Neal & Zechner, Josef, 1999. "Optimal Capital Allocation Using RAROC And EVA," CEPR Discussion Papers 2344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    34. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
    35. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. "Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nieto, María Rosa, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Ibrahim Ergen, 2015. "Two-step methods in VaR prediction and the importance of fat tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1013-1030, June.
    3. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chebbi, Ali & Hedhli, Amel, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of standard VaR methods for risk assessment: Using the Copula–EVT multidimensional approach for stock markets in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 430-445.
    5. Gerlach, Richard & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Semi-parametric dynamic asymmetric Laplace models for tail risk forecasting, incorporating realized measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 489-506.
    6. Angelidis, Timotheos & Benos, Alexandros & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2004. "The Use of GARCH Models in VaR Estimation," MPRA Paper 96332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Carol Alexander & Emese Lazar & Silvia Stanescu, 2011. "Analytic Approximations to GARCH Aggregated Returns Distributions with Applications to VaR and ETL," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    9. Stavroyiannis, S. & Makris, I. & Nikolaidis, V. & Zarangas, L., 2012. "Econometric modeling and value-at-risk using the Pearson type-IV distribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-17.
    10. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Zekokh, Timur, 2019. "Modelling volatility of cryptocurrencies using Markov-Switching GARCH models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 143-155.
    12. Kwangmin Jung & Donggyu Kim & Seunghyeon Yu, 2022. "Next generation models for portfolio risk management: An approach using financial big data," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(3), pages 765-787, September.
    13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    15. Tafakori, Laleh & Pourkhanali, Armin & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2018. "Forecasting spikes in electricity return innovations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 508-526.
    16. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
    17. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.
    18. Turan Bali & Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2007. "A conditional-SGT-VaR approach with alternative GARCH models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 241-267, April.
    19. Wu, Qi & Yan, Xing, 2019. "Capturing deep tail risk via sequential learning of quantile dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Chao Wang & Richard Gerlach, 2019. "Semi-parametric Realized Nonlinear Conditional Autoregressive Expectile and Expected Shortfall," Papers 1906.09961, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Value-at-Risk; Fixed Income; Incomplete Panels; Term- Structure Dynamic Models; Extreme Value; GARCH; Kalman Filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0512030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.