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Bias and Systematic Change in the Parameter Estimates of Macro-Level Diffusion Models

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Cited by:

  1. Kristof Decock & Koenraad Debackere & Anne- Mieke Vandamme & Bart Looy, 2020. "Scenario-driven forecasting: modeling peaks and paths. Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2703-2715, September.
  2. Serdar Kale & David Arditi, 2006. "Diffusion of ISO 9000 certification in the precast concrete industry," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 485-495.
  3. Sanjeev Dewan & Dale Ganley & Kenneth L. Kraemer, 2010. "Complementarities in the Diffusion of Personal Computers and the Internet: Implications for the Global Digital Divide," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 925-940, December.
  4. Fok, Dennis & Franses, Philip Hans, 2007. "Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 376-390, August.
  5. Yaniv Dover & Jacob Goldenberg & Daniel Shapira, 2012. "Network Traces on Penetration: Uncovering Degree Distribution from Adoption Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 689-712, July.
  6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Christophe Van den Bulte & Raghuram Iyengar, 2011. "Tricked by Truncation: Spurious Duration Dependence and Social Contagion in Hazard Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 233-248, 03-04.
  8. Yuri Peers & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 351-364, March.
  9. Adarsh Anand & Richie Aggarwal & Ompal Singh, 2019. "Using Weibull Distribution for Modeling Bimodal Diffusion Curves: A Naive Framework to Study Product Life Cycle," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(07), pages 1-17, November.
  10. Jonathan Beck, 2007. "The sales effect of word of mouth: a model for creative goods and estimates for novels," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(1), pages 5-23, March.
  11. Steven M. Shugan, 2002. "In Search of Data: An Editorial," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 369-377.
  12. Olivier Toubia & Jacob Goldenberg & Rosanna Garcia, 2014. "Improving Penetration Forecasts Using Social Interactions Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 3049-3066, December.
  13. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
  14. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
  15. Bunea, Anita M. & Della Posta, Pompeo & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2020. "What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments’ incentive? Insights from diffusion models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  16. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
  17. Simpson, Jesse R. & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Talebian, Ahmadreza & Golias, Mihalis M., 2019. "An estimation of the future adoption rate of autonomous trucks by freight organizations," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  18. Christophe Van den Bulte & Yogesh V. Joshi, 2007. "New Product Diffusion with Influentials and Imitators," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 400-421, 05-06.
  19. Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
  20. Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "The diffusion of scientific publications: The case of Econometrica, 1987," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 56(1), pages 29-42, January.
  21. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Stremersch, S., 2012. "Dynamics in international market segmentation of new product growth," Other publications TiSEM 306086bd-670f-48d2-97d1-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  22. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Stremersch, Stefan, 2012. "Dynamics in the international market segmentation of new product growth," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 81-92.
  23. Krishnan, Trichy V. & Feng, Shanfei & Jain, Dipak C., 2023. "Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  24. Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia & Darda, Md Abud, 2015. "Homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models: Algerian natural gas production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 366-378.
  25. Park, Sang-June & Lee, Yeong-Ran & Borle, Sharad, 2018. "The shape of Word-of-Mouth response function," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 304-309.
  26. Elmar Kiesling & Markus Günther & Christian Stummer & Lea Wakolbinger, 2012. "Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 183-230, June.
  27. Jun, Duk B. & Kim, Seon K. & Park, Yoon S. & Park, Myoung H. & Wilson, Amy R., 2002. "Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in substitutive and competitive environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-581.
  28. Anita M. Bunea & Mariangela Guidolin & Piero Manfredi & Pompeo Della Posta, 2022. "Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in the UK: A Comparison of Sectoral Patterns," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, April.
  29. Paulo Albuquerque & Bart J. Bronnenberg & Charles J. Corbett, 2007. "A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Global Diffusion of ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 Certification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 451-468, March.
  30. Fernández-Durán, J.J., 2014. "Modeling seasonal effects in the Bass Forecasting Diffusion Model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 251-264.
  31. Raghuram Iyengar & Christophe Van den Bulte & Thomas W. Valente, 2011. "Opinion Leadership and Social Contagion in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 195-212, 03-04.
  32. Chen, Yuwen & Carrillo, Janice E., 2011. "Single firm product diffusion model for single-function and fusion products," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 232-245, October.
  33. Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés & Montoya-Blandón, Santiago, 2020. "Forecasting from others’ experience: Bayesian estimation of the generalized Bass model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 442-465.
  34. Fragiskos Archontakis & Rocco Mosconi, 2021. "Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius: A Bibliometric Analysis of Citations through Multivariate Bass Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, August.
  35. Benson Tsz Kin Leung, 2022. "Innovation Diffusion among Case-based Decision-makers," Papers 2203.05785, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
  36. Lukas, Elmar & Spengler, Thomas Stefan & Kupfer, Stefan & Kieckhäfer, Karsten, 2017. "When and how much to invest? Investment and capacity choice under product life cycle uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1105-1114.
  37. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, October.
  38. Yamaguchi, Yohei & Akai, Kenju & Shen, Junyi & Fujimura, Naoki & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Prediction of photovoltaic and solar water heater diffusion and evaluation of promotion policies on the basis of consumers’ choices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1148-1159.
  39. Kamrad, Bardia & Lele, Shreevardhan S. & Siddique, Akhtar & Thomas, Robert J., 2005. "Innovation diffusion uncertainty, advertising and pricing policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(3), pages 829-850, August.
  40. Rajkumar Venkatesan & Trichy V. Krishnan & V. Kumar, 2004. "Evolutionary Estimation of Macro-Level Diffusion Models Using Genetic Algorithms: An Alternative to Nonlinear Least Squares," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 451-464, August.
  41. Debabrata Talukdar & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ainslie, 2002. "Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 97-114, February.
  42. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
  43. Yi-Tui Chen & Fu-Chiang Yang & Shih-Heng Yu, 2017. "The Diffusion Effect of MSW Recycling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
  44. Arun Gopalakrishnan & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2017. "A Cross-Cohort Changepoint Model for Customer-Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 195-213, March.
  45. Anna Brdulak & Grażyna Chaberek & Jacek Jagodziński, 2020. "Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
  46. Anita M. Bunea & Pietro Manfredi & Pompeo Della Posta & Mariangela Guidolin, 2019. "What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments' incentive? insight from diffusion models," Papers 1909.10017, arXiv.org.
  47. Mehmet KARACUKA & A.Nazif CATIK, 2012. "Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 12(4), pages 497-510.
  48. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Aghina, W.B., 2003. "Forecasting the international diffusion of innovations: An adaptive estimation approach," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-073-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  49. Marius F. Niculescu & Seungjin Whang, 2012. "Research Note ---Codiffusion of Wireless Voice and Data Services: An Empirical Analysis of the Japanese Mobile Telecommunications Market," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 260-279, March.
  50. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  51. Koray Cosguner & P. B. (Seethu) Seetharaman, 2022. "Dynamic Pricing for New Products Using a Utility-Based Generalization of the Bass Diffusion Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 1904-1922, March.
  52. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
  53. Christos Michalakelis & Georgia Dede & Dimitris Varoutas & Thomas Sphicopoulos, 2010. "Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 221-242, October.
  54. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
  55. Venkatesan, Rajkumar & Kumar, V., 2002. "A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-646.
  56. Desiraju, Ramarao & Nair, Harikesh S. & Chintagunta, Pradeep, 2004. "Diffusion of New Pharmaceutical Drugs in Developing and Developed Nations," Research Papers 1950, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  57. Abedi, Vahideh Sadat, 2019. "Compartmental diffusion modeling: Describing customer heterogeneity & communication network to support decisions for new product introductions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
  58. de Bondt, Gabe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2004. "The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Working Paper Series 313, European Central Bank.
  59. Teck-Hua Ho & Sergei Savin & Christian Terwiesch, 2002. "Managing Demand and Sales Dynamics in New Product Diffusion Under Supply Constraint," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 187-206, February.
  60. Alan L. Montgomery, 2001. "Applying Quantitative Marketing Techniques to the Internet," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 90-108, April.
  61. Sang-Gun Lee & Eui-bang Lee & Chang-Gyu Yang, 2014. "Strategies for ICT product diffusion: the case of the Korean mobile communications market," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 8(1), pages 65-81, March.
  62. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
  63. Frédéric C. Godart & Charles Galunic, 2019. "Explaining the Popularity of Cultural Elements: Networks, Culture, and the Structural Embeddedness of High Fashion Trends," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 151-168, February.
  64. Christophe Van den Bulte, 2000. "New Product Diffusion Acceleration: Measurement and Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 366-380, June.
  65. Arda Yenipazarli, 2015. "A road map to new product success: warranty, advertisement and price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 226(1), pages 669-694, March.
  66. Albert C. Bemmaor & Janghyuk Lee, 2002. "The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ill-Conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 209-220, November.
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