IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/telpol/v48y2024i10s0308596124001678.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Internet development and internal digital divide by using the “.it” domain names as an indicator: Evidence from Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Serrecchia, Michela

Abstract

Information Technology is important in daily life, especially was in the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, even in this period the phenomenon of the digital divide (dd) emerges. This research moves in this direction, studying the evolution of the Internet use in Italy, in three different macro-areas, in more recent times (from 1996 to 2022). To provide a rigorous quantitative approach of the internal dd, different statistical models of diffusion, in particular Logistic, Gompertz and Bass models have been used. In order to analyse the diffusion of the Internet and internal digital divide, the number of “.it “domain names were used as an indicator. From the comparison of the three statistical models applied, resulted that the Internet diffusion in the North is very developed compared to the Centre and South, and although the Centre and the North have a similar trend, the diffusion process is slower in the South. This confirmed the presence of an internal digital divide. A particular result arising from the application of Bass model is that, in Italy, potential users of the Internet are mostly “imitators” with respect to “innovators”. Furthermore, results show the presence of two imitator areas with different behaviors: the imitator area with higher income adopts technology faster, reaching in some times the same levels of Internet penetration of the innovative area and the point of inflection of the diffusion curve less than one year earlier than the innovative area and almost two years earlier than the imitator area with low income. However, the results show that in the long term the North (the area where the innovation coefficient is highest) continues to differentiate itself from the Centre and the South, increasing rather than decreasing the dd. This study can be useful to policymakers in order to take measures to overcome the dd, even in an industrialized country like Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Serrecchia, Michela, 2024. "Analysis of Internet development and internal digital divide by using the “.it” domain names as an indicator: Evidence from Italy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(10).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:48:y:2024:i:10:s0308596124001678
    DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2024.102870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308596124001678
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.telpol.2024.102870?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liao, Shu-Chun & Chou, Tzu-Chuan & Huang, Chen-Hao, 2022. "Revisiting the development trajectory of the digital divide: A main path analysis approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    2. Turk, Tomaž & Trkman, Peter, 2012. "Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-96.
    3. Monica Răileanu Szeles & Mihaela Simionescu, 2020. "Regional Patterns and Drivers of the EU Digital Economy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 95-119, July.
    4. Kiiski, Sampsa & Pohjola, Matti, 2002. "Cross-country diffusion of the Internet," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 297-310, June.
    5. Chris Tofallis, 2015. "A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(8), pages 1352-1362, August.
    6. Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel Karakara & Evans S. Osabuohien, 2022. "Threshold effects of ICT access and usage in Burkinabe and Ghanaian households," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 511-531, July.
    7. Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Valarezo, Angel & López, Rafael & Garín-Muñoz, Teresa, 2021. "Digital divides across consumers of internet services in Spain using panel data 2007–2019. Narrowing or not?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    8. Modis, Theodore, 1994. "Determination of the Uncertainties in S-Curve Logistic Fits," OSF Preprints n53pd_v1, Center for Open Science.
    9. Shchetinin, Oleg & Baptiste, Massenot, 2008. "How to Overcome the Digital Divide? The Determinants of Internet Diffusion," MPRA Paper 9413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rehman, Naqeeb Ur & Nunziante, Giulia, 2023. "The effect of the digital economy on total factor productivity in European regions," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(10).
    11. Nishijima, Marislei & Ivanauskas, Terry Macedo & Sarti, Flavia Mori, 2017. "Evolution and determinants of digital divide in Brazil (2005–2013)," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 12-24.
    12. Quaglione, Davide & Matteucci, Nicola & Furia, Donatella & Marra, Alessandro & Pozzi, Cesare, 2020. "Are mobile and fixed broadband substitutes or complements? New empirical evidence from Italy and implications for the digital divide policies," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Hilbert, Martin, 2016. "The bad news is that the digital access divide is here to stay: Domestically installed bandwidths among 172 countries for 1986–2014," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 567-581.
    14. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
    15. Lesley Chiou & Catherine Tucker, 2020. "Social Distancing, Internet Access and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 26982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    17. Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Valarezo, Angel & López, Rafael & Garín-Muñoz, Teresa & Herguera, Iñigo, 2020. "E-commerce by individuals in Spain using panel data 2008–2016," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    18. Grishchenko, Natalia, 2020. "The gap not only closes: Resistance and reverse shifts in the digital divide in Russia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8).
    19. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    20. Christophe Van den Bulte & Gary L. Lilien, 1997. "Bias and Systematic Change in the Parameter Estimates of Macro-Level Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 338-353.
    21. Christine Horn & Sandra M. Gifford, 2022. "ICT uptake and use and social connectedness in rural and remote communities: a study from Sarawak, Malaysia," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 721-746, October.
    22. Cariolle, Joël, 2021. "International connectivity and the digital divide in Sub-Saharan Africa," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    23. Teklemariam, Mekuria Haile & Kwon, Youngsun, 2020. "Differentiating mobile broadband policies across diffusion stages: A panel data analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8).
    24. Sang-Oun Lee & Ahreum Hong & Junseok Hwang, 2017. "ICT diffusion as a determinant of human progress," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 687-705, October.
    25. Andrea Benecchi & Carlo Bottoni & Emanuela Ciapanna & Annalisa Frigo & Aldo Milan & Elisa Scarinzi, 2023. "Digitalisation in Italy: Evidence from a New Regional Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 23-54, September.
    26. Modis, Theodore, 1994. "Determination of the Uncertainties in S-Curve Logistic Fits," OSF Preprints n53pd, Center for Open Science.
    27. Giorgio Di Pietro, 2021. "Changes in Italy's education‐related digital divide," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 252-270, June.
    28. Szeles, Monica Răileanu, 2018. "New insights from a multilevel approach to the regional digital divide in the European Union," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 452-463.
    29. Chris Tofallis, 2015. "A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 524-524, March.
    30. Song, Zhouying & Wang, Chen & Bergmann, Luke, 2020. "China’s prefectural digital divide: Spatial analysis and multivariate determinants of ICT diffusion," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid & Metevier, Samantha, 2024. "Broadband adoption in Algeria and the structural determinants of its pace," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(6).
    2. Ren, Wei & Zhu, Xiaowen, 2024. "The age-based digital divides in China: Trends and socioeconomic differentials (2010–2020)," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    3. Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Valarezo, Angel & López, Rafael & Garín-Muñoz, Teresa, 2021. "Digital divides across consumers of internet services in Spain using panel data 2007–2019. Narrowing or not?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    4. Fernández-Durán, J.J., 2014. "Modeling seasonal effects in the Bass Forecasting Diffusion Model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 251-264.
    5. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    7. Daekook Kang, 2021. "Box-office forecasting in Korea using search trend data: a modified generalized Bass diffusion model," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 41-72, March.
    8. Yuri Peers & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 351-364, March.
    9. Rahman A. Prasojo & Karunika Diwyacitta & Suwarno & Harry Gumilang, 2017. "Transformer Paper Expected Life Estimation Using ANFIS Based on Oil Characteristics and Dissolved Gases (Case Study: Indonesian Transformers)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Kim, Sungil & Kim, Heeyoung, 2016. "A new metric of absolute percentage error for intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 669-679.
    12. Jonathan Beck, 2007. "The sales effect of word of mouth: a model for creative goods and estimates for novels," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(1), pages 5-23, March.
    13. Benson Tsz Kin Leung, 2022. "Innovation Diffusion among Case-based Decision-makers," Papers 2203.05785, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    14. Massiani, Jérôme & Gohs, Andreas, 2015. "The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    15. Vicente, María Rosalía, 2022. "ICT for healthy and active aging: The elderly as first and last movers," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    16. Olivier Toubia & Jacob Goldenberg & Rosanna Garcia, 2014. "Improving Penetration Forecasts Using Social Interactions Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 3049-3066, December.
    17. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    18. Warwick Smith & Anca M. Hanea & Mark A. Burgman, 2022. "Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    20. Venkatesan, Rajkumar & Kumar, V., 2002. "A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-646.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:48:y:2024:i:10:s0308596124001678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30471/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.