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Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion

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Cited by:

  1. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Working Papers 1947, Banco de España.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  3. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-446, July.
  4. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
  5. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
  6. Maiko Koga & Haruko Kato, 2017. "Behavioral Biases in Firms' Growth Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-9, Bank of Japan.
  7. Yara de Almeida Campos Cordeiro & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2017. "Inattention in individual expectations," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 17(1), pages 40-59.
  8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Jane Ryngaert, 2021. "Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1387-1446.
  9. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  10. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolás Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2021. "Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts’ Macroeconomic Forecasts," Borradores de Economia 1184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  12. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "Asset price volatility and investment horizons: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 19-48.
  13. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.
  14. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  15. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
  16. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  17. Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2020. "Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  18. Shuo Cao & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Reports 934, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
  20. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
  21. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
  22. Alexander Ballantyne & Christian Gillitzer & David Jacobs & Ewan Rankin, 2016. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  23. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  24. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & do Nascimento Valladares, Matheus, 2024. "The effects of economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on banks’ loan loss provision in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  25. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
  26. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  27. Cheng, Ing-Haw & Hsiaw, Alice, 2022. "Distrust in experts and the origins of disagreement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  28. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2021. "What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 49-53, January.
  29. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Jane Ryngaert, 2018. "Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 24987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_037 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
  32. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Daumas, Louis & Miess, Michael Gregor & Yardley, Andrew, 2023. "Stranding ahoy? Heterogeneous transition beliefs and capital investment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 535-567.
  33. Martinez, Andrew & Schibuola, Alex, 2021. "The Expectations Gap: An Alternative Measure of Economic Slack," Working Papers 11284, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
  34. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
  35. Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2015. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 504-535, February.
  36. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 297-308.
  37. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
  38. Michael Ehrmann & Paul Hubert, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," Working papers 897, Banque de France.
  39. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2019. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 491-520, September.
  40. Lee, Deok-Hyeon & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2019. "Dispersion of beliefs, ambiguity, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 43-56.
  41. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
  42. Hassan Afrouzi, 2024. "Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(10), pages 3378-3420.
  43. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
  44. Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
  45. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
  46. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  47. Meeks, Roland & Monti, Francesca, 2023. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 41-54.
  48. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  49. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Empirical Findings on Inflation Expectations in Brazil: a survey," Working Papers Series 464, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  50. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
  51. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  52. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
  53. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Tatiana Acar, 2018. "Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectations about inflation: evidence for Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 826-843.
  54. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
  55. Falck, E. & Hoffmann, M. & Hürtgen, P., 2021. "Disagreement about inflation expectations and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 15-31.
  56. repec:amu:wpaper:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Andrew Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17.
  58. de Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2020. "Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 72-91.
  59. Tim Bollerslev & Jia Li & Yuan Xue, 2018. "Volume, Volatility, and Public News Announcements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2005-2041.
  60. Kieren, Pascal & König-Kersting, Christian & Schmidt, Robert J. & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Theurich, Franziska, 2024. "First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about households and firms," Discussion Papers 18/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  61. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 640-656, April.
  62. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
  63. Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Comparing Forecasting Performance with Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 13746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Wojciech CHAREMZA & Carlos DÍAZ & Svetlana MAKAROVA, 2019. "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-18, March.
  65. An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  66. Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Annarita Colasante & Alba Ruiz-Buforn, 2024. "The effect of time-varying fundamentals in learning-to-forecast experiments," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(4), pages 619-647, October.
  67. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
  68. Jia, Pengfei & Shen, Haopeng & Zheng, Shikun, 2023. "Monetary policy rules and opinionated markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
  69. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  70. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
  71. Jin Yeub Kim & Yongjun Kim & Myungkyu Shim, 2023. "Do Financial Analysts Herd?," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 202-219, July.
  72. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  73. Doina Chichernea & Kershen Huang & Alex Petkevich, 2019. "Does maturity matter? The case of treasury futures volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1301-1321, October.
  74. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
  75. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Luna, Paulo Henrique, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement in expectations about fiscal variables empirical evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 100-116.
  76. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  77. Mueller, Philippe & Vedolin, Andrea & Yen, Yu-Min, 2012. "Bond variance risk premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119053, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  78. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  79. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
  80. Michael P Clements, 2014. "Assessing the Evidence of Macro- Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  81. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
  82. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  83. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima, 2012. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1589-1607, December.
  84. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2017. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1059-1103, April.
  85. Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
  86. Svetlana Makarova, 2016. "ECB footprints on inflation forecast uncertainty," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2016-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Jul 2016.
  87. Tomasz Łyziak & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2215-2241, December.
  88. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Acar, Tatiana, 2020. "Fiscal credibility, target revisions and disagreement in expectations about fiscal results," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 38-58.
  89. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 349-382, March.
  90. Pascal Kieren & Christian König-Kersting & Robert Schmidt & Stefan Trautmann & Franziska Heinicke, 2023. "First-Order and Higher-Order Inflation Expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms," Working Papers 2023-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  91. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
  92. Maurizio Bovi & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 451-469, December.
  93. Binder, Carola Conces, 2018. "Inflation expectations and the price at the pump," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
  94. Volha Audzei, 2022. "Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 281-320, September.
  95. Hollmayr, Josef & Kühl, Michael, 2019. "Learning about banks’ net worth and the slow recovery after the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  96. Carola Binder & Tucker S. Mcelroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2022. "The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 39-71, February.
  97. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon), 2015. "Evaluating the economic forecasts of FOMC members," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 165-175.
  98. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 81-123, June.
  99. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata, 2019. "Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(40), pages 4411-4424, August.
  100. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  101. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  102. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  103. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
  104. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
  105. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland E. Farmer, 2024. "Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  106. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  107. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 41214, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  108. Kim Jin Yeub & Shim Myungkyu, 2019. "Forecast Dispersion in Finite-Player Forecasting Games," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-6, January.
  109. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caio Ferrari Ferreira, 2019. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 649-678, October.
  110. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 169-185, May.
  111. Nathanael Vellekoop & Mirko Wiederholt, 2019. "Inflation Expectations and Choices of Households," Working Papers hal-03878694, HAL.
  112. Marinovic, Iván & Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2013. "Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 690-720, Elsevier.
  113. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova, 2022. "What drives updates of inflation expectations? A Bayesian VAR analysis for the G‐7 countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2748-2765, September.
  114. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  115. Park, Sunjin, 2022. "Heterogeneous beliefs in macroeconomic growth prospects and the carry risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  116. Atalla, Tarek & Joutz, Fred & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1178-1192.
  117. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  118. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
  119. James Yetman, 2018. "The perils of approximating fixed-horizon inflation forecasts with fixed-event forecasts," BIS Working Papers 700, Bank for International Settlements.
  120. Dovern, Jonas, 2014. "A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data," Working Papers 0571, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  121. Lena Draeger & Michael J. Lamla, 2015. "Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata," KOF Working papers 15-380, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  122. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2016. "Bayesian persuasion with heterogeneous priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 672-706.
  123. Raffaella Giacomini & Vasiliki Skreta & Javier Turen, 2015. "Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates," Discussion Papers 1602, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  124. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
  125. Qu, Ritong & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2024. "Comparing forecasting performance with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 918-941.
  126. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast," CREATES Research Papers 2008-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  127. Robert A. Connolly & Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2022. "Stock returns and inflation shocks in weaker economic times," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 827-867, September.
  128. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
  129. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  130. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
  131. Ethan Struby, 2018. "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," Working Papers 2018-04, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
  132. Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  133. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
  134. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
  135. Lien, Donald & Sun, Yuchen & Zhang, Chengsi, 2021. "Uncertainty, confidence, and monetary policy in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1347-1358.
  136. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
  137. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
  138. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  139. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
  140. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  141. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty About the Length of Business Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2900-2923, June.
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