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Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?

Author

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  • Benchimol, Jonathan
  • El-Shagi, Makram
  • Saadon, Yossi

Abstract

Each person’s characteristics may influence that person’s behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts’ performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts’ inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:201:y:2022:i:c:p:205-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expert forecast; Behavioral economics; Survival analysis; Panel estimation; Global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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