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Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectations about inflation: evidence for Brazil

Author

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  • Gabriel Caldas Montes

    (Fluminense Federal University and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)

  • Tatiana Acar

    (Fluminense Federal University)

Abstract

The present paper analyzes the impact of fiscal credibility on the disagreement in expectations about inflation. We argue that when fiscal credibility is low (high), the uncertainty related to the future behavior of inflation (measured by the disagreement in expectations) is higher (lower). The contributions of our study are twofold. First, we use market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil to build a new fiscal credibility index. This new index takes into account the expectations related to the fiscal effort required to keep gross public debt in a sustainable level. Second, we analyze the influence of fiscal credibility on the disagreement in expectations about inflation. Evidence suggests fiscal credibility is important to reduce the disagreement in expectations about inflation. Thus, the findings indicate that, since fiscal credibility helps reducing the disagreement in expectations, it helps in the process of anchoring inflation expectations, providing better results for the inflation targeting regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Caldas Montes & Tatiana Acar, 2018. "Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectations about inflation: evidence for Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 826-843.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & de Hollanda Lima, Natalia Teixeira, 2022. "Discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal credibility and inflation risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-222.
    2. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    4. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    5. Gabriel C Montes & Caio F Ferreira, 2022. "Monetary policy opacity and disagreements in expectations about variables under central bank control," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 703-721.
    6. Tatiana Evdokimova & Grigory Zhirnov & Inge Klaver, 2019. "The Impact of Inflation Anchor Strength and Monetary Policy Transparency on Inflation During the Period of Emerging Market Volatility in Summer 2018," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 71-88, September.
    7. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    8. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo henrique Luna, 2021. "Effects of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal communication on fiscal credibility: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1486-1500.
    9. Julien Vandernoot & Jonathan Bauweraerts & Antoine Buchet, 2019. "Do elections influence taxation?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 854-865.
    10. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Igor Mendes Marcelino, 2023. "Uncertainties and disagreements in expectations of professional forecasters: Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 937-956, July.
    11. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Acar, Tatiana, 2020. "Fiscal credibility, target revisions and disagreement in expectations about fiscal results," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 38-58.
    14. Fonseca Morello, Thiago & Marchetti Ramos, Rossano & O. Anderson, Liana & Owen, Nathan & Rosan, Thais Michele & Steil, Lara, 2020. "Predicting fires for policy making: Improving accuracy of fire brigade allocation in the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Juan Camilo Anzoategui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2021. "Effects of fiscal credibility on inflation expectations: evidence from an emerging economy," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 125-148.
    16. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    17. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    18. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
    19. Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal credibility; disagreement in expectations; public debt; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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