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Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

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  1. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  2. He, Ling-Yun & Qian, Wen-Bin, 2012. "A Monte Carlo simulation to the performance of the R/S and V/S methods—Statistical revisit and real world application," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(14), pages 3770-3782.
  3. Dutta, Srimonti & Ghosh, Dipak & Chatterjee, Sucharita, 2016. "Multifractal detrended Cross Correlation Analysis of Foreign Exchange and SENSEX fluctuation in Indian perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 188-201.
  4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Umar, Zaghum & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2021. "Existence of long memory in crude oil and petroleum products: Generalised Hurst exponent approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kumar, Satish & Pathak, Rajesh & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Testing the oil price efficiency using various measures of long-range dependence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  6. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
  7. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "Efficiency and credit ratings: a permutation-information-theory analysis," Papers 1509.01839, arXiv.org.
  8. Ruan, Qingsong & Zhang, Manqian & Lv, Dayong & Yang, Haiquan, 2018. "SAD and stock returns revisited: Nonlinear analysis based on MF-DCCA and Granger test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1009-1022.
  9. Zhang, Guofu & Li, Jingjing, 2018. "Multifractal analysis of Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets before and after the connect program," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 611-622.
  10. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
  11. Hongtao Chen & Lianghua Chen, 2015. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of Brent crude oil futures prices volatility in intercontinental exchange," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 93-108.
  12. Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Jin, Xiu & Huang, Wei-qiang, 2014. "Stable distribution and long-range correlation of Brent crude oil market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 173-179.
  13. Ran Zhang & Jing Zhang & Shuang Xu, 2015. "Determining pledged loan-to-value ratio: an option pricing perspective," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, December.
  14. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Daily seasonality in crude oil returns and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-88.
  15. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
  16. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 261-272.
  17. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2016. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A Markov switching multifractal volatility approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-9.
  18. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2013. "Are crude oil spot and futures prices cointegrated? Not always!," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 641-650.
  19. Ruan, Qingsong & Bao, Junjie & Zhang, Manqian & Fan, Limin, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate regime reform on RMB markets: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 122-134.
  20. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  21. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Solis, Ricardo, 2010. "Crude oil market efficiency and modeling: Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 993-1000, September.
  22. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Yu & Ma, Feng, 2015. "Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 101-113.
  23. Hartmann, András & Mukli, Péter & Nagy, Zoltán & Kocsis, László & Hermán, Péter & Eke, András, 2013. "Real-time fractal signal processing in the time domain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 89-102.
  24. Górska, Anna & Krawiec, Monika, 2017. "Analiza efektywności informacyjnej w formie słabej na rynkach „soft commodities” z wykorzystaniem wybranych testów statystycznych," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 17(32, Part ), September.
  25. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2014. "Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 235-244.
  26. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  27. Rodriguez, E. & Aguilar-Cornejo, M. & Femat, R. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2014. "US stock market efficiency over weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly time scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 554-564.
  28. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Alvarez, J. & Rodríguez, E., 2015. "Asymmetric long-term autocorrelations in crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 330-341.
  29. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "What can we learn from the history of gasoline crack spreads?: Long memory, structural breaks and modeling implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 349-360.
  30. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Haroon, Omair & Mehmood, Fahad & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Are oil prices efficient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 362-370.
  31. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
  32. Zhou, Weijie & Dang, Yaoguo & Gu, Rongbao, 2013. "Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1429-1438.
  33. Lubnau, Thorben & Todorova, Neda, 2015. "Trading on mean-reversion in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 312-319.
  34. Shaista Arshad, 2017. "Analysing the Relationship between Oil Prices and Islamic Stock Markets," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(4), pages 429-443, December.
  35. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
  36. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2010. "Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 987-992, September.
  37. Wang, Jie & Wang, Jun, 2016. "Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 365-374.
  38. Guo, Yaoqi & Yao, Shanshan & Cheng, Hui & Zhu, Wensong, 2020. "China's copper futures market efficiency analysis: Based on nonlinear Granger causality and multifractal methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  39. Mitra, Subrata Kumar & Bhatia, Vaneet & Jana, R.K. & Charan, Parikshit & Chattopadhyay, Manojit, 2018. "Changing value detrended cross correlation coefficient over time: Between crude oil and crop prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 671-678.
  40. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur. M., 2015. "Developing trading strategies based on fractal finance: An application of MF-DFA in the context of Islamic equities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 223-235.
  41. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Intraday Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
  42. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Fei, Fangyu & Wang, Yudong, 2011. "Analysis of the efficiency of the Shanghai stock market: A volatility perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3486-3495.
  43. Li, Daye & Nishimura, Yusaku & Men, Ming, 2016. "Why the long-term auto-correlation has not been eliminated by arbitragers: Evidences from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 167-178.
  44. Sándor Kovács & Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Péter Balogh, 2012. "The Long Memory Property of Hungarian Market Pig Prices: A Comparison of Three Different Methods," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 12(3), pages 123-138.
  45. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Yu & Zhang, Bangzheng, 2014. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of carbon and crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 113-125.
  46. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
  47. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2011. "A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3754-3766.
  48. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Guofeng & Liu, Guangsheng, 2015. "Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 444-456.
  49. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Time-varying long range dependence in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 318-327.
  50. Zhang, Bing, 2013. "Are the crude oil markets becoming more efficient over time? New evidence from a generalized spectral test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 875-881.
  51. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2015. "The troika of business cycle, efficiency and volatility. An East Asian perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 158-170.
  52. Chen, Hongtao & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Forecasting volatility in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets based on multifractal analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(16), pages 2926-2935.
  53. Benjamin Rainer Auer, 2018. "Are standard asset pricing factors long-range dependent?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 66-88, January.
  54. Li, Daye & Kou, Zhun & Sun, Qiankun, 2015. "The scale-dependent market trend: Empirical evidences using the lagged DFA method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 433(C), pages 26-35.
  55. Ibarra-Valdez, C. & Alvarez, J. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2016. "Randomness confidence bands of fractal scaling exponents for financial price returns," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-124.
  56. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.
  57. Aslam, Faheem & Zil-e-huma, & Bibi, Rashida & Ferreira, Paulo, 2022. "Cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty and precious and industrial metals: A multifractal cross-correlation analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  58. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average analysis on the US Dollar exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3512-3523.
  59. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Detrended fluctuation analysis on spot and futures markets of West Texas Intermediate crude oil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 864-875.
  60. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2013. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between the Chinese stock market and surrounding stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1659-1670.
  61. Cerqueti, Roy & Fanelli, Viviana & Rotundo, Giulia, 2019. "Long run analysis of crude oil portfolios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 183-205.
  62. Gwo-Fong Lin & Ming-Jui Chang & Jyue-Ting Wu, 2017. "A Hybrid Statistical Downscaling Method Based on the Classification of Rainfall Patterns," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 377-401, January.
  63. Sanjeeta Shirodkar & Guntur Anjana Raju, 2021. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Structural Breaks: Evidence from Energy Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 230-239.
  64. Xia, Jianan & Shang, Pengjian & Lu, Dan & Yin, Yi, 2016. "A comprehensive segmentation analysis of crude oil market based on time irreversibility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 104-114.
  65. Gajardo, Gabriel & Kristjanpoller, Werner D. & Minutolo, Marcel, 2018. "Does Bitcoin exhibit the same asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations with crude oil, gold and DJIA as the Euro, Great British Pound and Yen?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-205.
  66. Sultan Yahya Abbas Natto, 2024. "The Impact of Fluctuating Oil Revenues on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 245-253, January.
  67. Thomas Kremser & Margarethe Rammerstorfer, 2017. "Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, June.
  68. Faheem Aslam & Wahbeeah Mohti & Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Evidence of Intraday Multifractality in European Stock Markets during the Recent Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, May.
  69. Cao, Guangxi & Xu, Wei, 2016. "Multifractal features of EUA and CER futures markets by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical model decomposition," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 212-222.
  70. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
  71. Akbar Komijani & Esmaeil Naderi & Nadiya Gandali Alikhani, 2014. "A hybrid approach for forecasting of oil prices volatility," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 323-340, September.
  72. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Bacha, Obiyathulla I. & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "An analysis of stock market efficiency: Developed vs Islamic stock markets using MF-DFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 86-99.
  73. Gu, Rongbao & Chen, Hongtao & Wang, Yudong, 2010. "Multifractal analysis on international crude oil markets based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2805-2815.
  74. Gu, Rongbao & Zhang, Bing, 2016. "Is efficiency of crude oil market affected by multifractality? Evidence from the WTI crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 151-158.
  75. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Huong Dinh, Thanh & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4371-4380, August.
  76. Chen, Hong & Zhu, Li & Jia, GuoZhu, 2020. "MF-DCCA between molecular properties and aqueous solubility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 556(C).
  77. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Gu, Rongbao, 2009. "Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 271-276, December.
  78. García-Carranco, Sergio M. & Bory-Reyes, Juan & Balankin, Alexander S., 2016. "The crude oil price bubbling and universal scaling dynamics of price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 60-68.
  79. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Fabregat-Aibar, Laura & Sorrosal-Forradellas, Maria-Teresa, 2023. "Disentangling the impact of economic and health crises on financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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  81. Ruan, Qingsong & Zhou, Mi & Yin, Linsen & Lv, Dayong, 2021. "Hedging effectiveness of Chinese Treasury bond futures: New evidence based on nonlinear analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
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  83. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
  84. Lee, Min-Jae & Choi, Sun-Yong, 2024. "Insights into the dynamics of market efficiency spillover of financial assets in different equity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 641(C).
  85. Chen, Shu-Peng & He, Ling-Yun, 2010. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1434-1444.
  86. Tao Yin & Yiming Wang, 2021. "Market Efficiency and Nonlinear Analysis of Soybean Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10, January.
  87. Vogl, Markus, 2023. "Hurst exponent dynamics of S&P 500 returns: Implications for market efficiency, long memory, multifractality and financial crises predictability by application of a nonlinear dynamics analysis framewo," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
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  92. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2021. "Analysis of stock market efficiency during crisis periods in the US stock market: Differences between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
  93. Liu, Li, 2014. "Cross-correlations between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 293-302.
  94. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are developed and emerging agricultural futures markets multifractal? A comparative perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3828-3836.
  95. Zhou, Yaping & Lu, Baoqun & Lv, Dayong & Ruan, Qingsong, 2019. "The informativeness of options-trading activities: Non-linear analysis based on MF-DCCA and Granger test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
  96. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
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  114. Ruan, Qingsong & Cui, Hao & Fan, Liming, 2020. "China’s soybean crush spread: Nonlinear analysis based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 554(C).
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