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Long run analysis of crude oil portfolios

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  • Cerqueti, Roy
  • Fanelli, Viviana
  • Rotundo, Giulia

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of the long-run behavior of a set of mispricing portfolios generated by three crude oils, where one of the oils is the reference commodity and it is compared to a combination of the other two ones. To this aim, the long-term parameter related to the mispricing portfolio are estimated on empirical data. We pay particular attention to the cases of mispricing portfolios either of stationary type or following a Brownian motion: the former situation is associated to replication portfolios of a reference commodity; the latter one allows to implement forecasts. The theoretical setting is validated through empirical data on WTI, Brent and Dubai oils.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqueti, Roy & Fanelli, Viviana & Rotundo, Giulia, 2019. "Long run analysis of crude oil portfolios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 183-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:183-205
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Viviana Fanelli & Claudio Fontana & Francesco Rotondi, 2023. "A hidden Markov model for statistical arbitrage in international crude oil futures markets," Papers 2309.00875, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    3. Du, Xiaoxu & Tang, Zhenpeng & Chen, Kaijie, 2023. "A novel crude oil futures trading strategy based on volume-price time-frequency decomposition with ensemble deep reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    4. Kais Tissaoui & Taha Zaghdoudi & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Mariem Nsaibi, 2023. "Do Gas Price and Uncertainty Indices Forecast Crude Oil Prices? Fresh Evidence Through XGBoost Modeling," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 663-687, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities portfolio; Long-term memory; Forecast; Crude oils;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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