IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/jmsjnl/v7y2017i2p1-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Kremser
  • Margarethe Rammerstorfer

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the differences and similarities in natural gas trading at the National Balancing Point in the UK and the Henry Hub located in the US. For this, we analyze traders¡¯ expectations and implement a mechanical forecasting model that allows traders to predict future spot prices. Based on this, we compute the deviations between expected and realized spot prices and analyze possible reasons and dependencies with other market variables. Overall, the mechanical predictor performs well, but a small forecast error remains which can not be characterized by the explanatory variables included.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Kremser & Margarethe Rammerstorfer, 2017. "Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:jmsjnl:v:7:y:2017:i:2:p:1-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jms/article/view/68541/37201
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jms/article/view/68541
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 45-60.
    2. Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Lindqvist, Ola & Løland, Anders, 2008. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2420-2440, September.
    3. Hsieh, David A & Kulatilaka, Nalin, 1982. "Rational Expectations and Risk Premia in Forward Markets: Primary Metals at the London Metals Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1199-1207, December.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
    7. Philipp Koenig, 2012. "The effect of LNG on the relationship between UK and Continental European natural gas markets," Working Papers EPRG 1225, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Mr. Tonny Lybek & Mr. Abdourahmane Sarr, 2002. "Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 2002/232, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bailey, Warren & Chang, K C, 1993. "Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 555-573, June.
    11. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    12. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
    13. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
    15. Koenig, P., 2012. "The effect of LNG on the rleationship between UK and Continental European natural gas markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1253, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Graciela Kaminsky & Manmohan S. Kumar, 1990. "Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 670-699, September.
    17. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
    18. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    2. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Oglend, Atle, 2017. "Estimating the competitive storage model: A simulated likelihood approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 39-56.
    3. Elif Arbatli, 2008. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Staff Working Papers 08-48, Bank of Canada.
    4. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
    5. Soini, Vesa & Lorentzen, Sindre, 2019. "Option prices and implied volatility in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 515-539.
    6. Loïc Maréchal, 2023. "A tale of two premiums revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 580-614, May.
    7. Stefan Trück & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU‐ETS—Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 587-611, June.
    8. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    9. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Chen, Sheng-Hung & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "Natural gas price, market fundamentals and hedging effectiveness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 321-337.
    10. Cifuentes, Sebastián & Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2020. "Expected prices, futures prices and time-varying risk premiums: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    12. Abdullah Almansour & Margaret Insley, 2016. "The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2), pages 61-88, April.
    13. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    14. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    16. Eugenio S. A. Bobenrieth & Juan R. A. Bobenrieth & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "Bubble Troubles? Rational Storage, Mean Reversion, and Runs in Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 193-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bruce McGough & Andrew J. Plantinga & Bill Provencher, 2004. "The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 95-108.
    18. Kelley, Clare & Lanot, Gauthier, 2002. "Consumption Patterns Over Pay Periods," Economic Research Papers 269469, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    19. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    20. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas; commodity pricing; unbiasedness; Kalman filtering; risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:jmsjnl:v:7:y:2017:i:2:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.