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Informational Efficiency in Futures Markets for Crude Oil

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Fritz
  • Christoph Weber

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology to test whether recent developments on world oil markets are in line with the hypothesis of efficient markets. We treat the joint hypothesis problem as stated by Fama (1970), Fama (1991), that market efficiency can only be assessed in conjunction with a price model of market equilibrium. Data on spot and futures prices for Brent crude oil in the period 2002†2008 are used in combination with a multi factor model to investigate whether futures prices are efficient forecasts of future spot prices. The hypothesis of market efficiency is assessed by comparing the observed developments of crude oil spot prices to the ex†ante expected distributions of spot prices using the Rosenblatt transform. For the Brent crude oil futures market, the results are in line with the hypothesis of market efficiency in the short†term but during our sample period the hypothesis is refuted when forecast horizons of one year are considered. Our findings suggest that it can lead to rather wrong investment decisions when relying on longer†term crude oil futures prices and the information contained therein.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Fritz & Christoph Weber, 2011. "Informational Efficiency in Futures Markets for Crude Oil," EWL Working Papers 1103, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Jan 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:1103
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
    2. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    3. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Cisneros, Myriam & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Soriano, Angel, 2002. "Multifractal Hurst analysis of crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 651-670.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multi factor model; Informational efficiency; Oil market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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