IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i5p3945-d1076109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of Interdependence and Contagion on Crude Oil and Precious Metals According to ρ DCCA : A COVID-19 Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Thiago Pires Santana

    (Earth Sciences and Environment Modeling Program, State University of Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana 44036-900, BA, Brazil
    Physics Department and in the Earth Sciences and Environment Modeling Program, State University of Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana 44036-900, BA, Brazil)

  • Nicole Horta

    (School of Business and Administration, Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal, 2910-761 Setúbal, Portugal)

  • Catarina Revez

    (School of Business and Administration, Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal, 2910-761 Setúbal, Portugal)

  • Rui Manuel Teixeira Santos Dias

    (Earth Sciences and Environment Modeling Program, State University of Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana 44036-900, BA, Brazil
    School of Business and Administration, Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal, 2910-761 Setúbal, Portugal
    Center for Advanced Studies in Management and Economics, University of Évora, 7004-516 Évora, Portugal)

  • Gilney Figueira Zebende

    (Physics Department and in the Earth Sciences and Environment Modeling Program, State University of Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana 44036-900, BA, Brazil)

Abstract

The energy sector has been the main economic hub in everyone’s lives and in world geopolitics. Consequently, oil, gas, electricity and energy from renewable sources (wind and solar) are traded on the stock market, and all interconnected around the world. On the other hand, a global health crisis, such as COVID-19, can produce a great economic catastrophe. In this scenario, a robust statistical analysis will be performed here with respect to the concept of interdependence and contagion effect. For this project, we chose to study the relationship between the main source of energy (crude oil, WTI and Brent ) and two ( Gold and Silver ) precious metals (which are a safe haven for investment). Therefore, with the novelty of the application of ρ D C C A and Δ ρ D C C A coefficients before and during the COVID-19 crisis (announced by the World Health Organization), the interdependence and the contagion effect were calculated. We verified that COVID-19 had no influence on contagion effect between crude oil in its indexes, WTI and Brent , since they have already shown to be highly interdependent, both before and after the World Health Organization COVID-19 decree. Likewise, COVID-19 had a significant influence on the crude oil and precious metal sectors, which was evident as we identified an increase in its interdependence, with a clearly positive contagion. These results show that COVID-19 imposed a restructuring in the relationship between energy (crude oil) and precious metals. More details will be presented throughout this article.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Pires Santana & Nicole Horta & Catarina Revez & Rui Manuel Teixeira Santos Dias & Gilney Figueira Zebende, 2023. "Effects of Interdependence and Contagion on Crude Oil and Precious Metals According to ρ DCCA : A COVID-19 Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:5:p:3945-:d:1076109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/5/3945/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/5/3945/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marinho, E.B.S. & Sousa, A.M.Y.R. & Andrade, R.F.S., 2013. "Using Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis in geophysical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2195-2201.
    2. Dias, Rui & da Silva, Jacinto Vidigal & Dionísio, Andreia, 2019. "Financial markets of the LAC region: Does the crisis influence the financial integration?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 160-173.
    3. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and contagion between energy sector and financial assets during COVID-19 crisis period," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 449-467, September.
    4. Guedes, E.F. & Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "An econophysics approach to study the effect of BREXIT referendum on European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1175-1182.
    5. da Silva, Marcus Fernandes & de Area Leão Pereira, Éder Johnson & da Silva Filho, Aloisio Machado & de Castro, Arleys Pereira Nunes & Miranda, José Garcia Vivas & Zebende, Gilney Figueira, 2016. "Quantifying the contagion effect of the 2008 financial crisis between the G7 countries (by GDP nominal)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Guedes, E.F. & Brito, A.A. & Oliveira Filho, F.M. & Fernandez, B.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F., 2018. "Statistical test for ΔρDCCA cross-correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 501(C), pages 134-140.
    7. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
    8. Machado Filho, A. & da Silva, M.F. & Zebende, G.F., 2014. "Autocorrelation and cross-correlation in time series of homicide and attempted homicide," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 12-19.
    9. Douglas Wong & Kui-Wai Li, 2010. "Comparing the performance of relative stock return differential and real exchange rate in two financial crises," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 137-150.
    10. Kunjana Malik & Sakshi Sharma & Manmeet Kaur, 2021. "Measuring contagion during COVID-19 through volatility spillovers of BRIC countries using diagonal BEKK approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(2), pages 227-242, February.
    11. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Investigating the relationship between volatilities of cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 817-843, December.
    12. Mishra, Aswini Kumar & Ghate, Kshitish & Renganathan, Jayashree & Kennet, Joushita J. & Rajderkar, Nilay Pradeep, 2022. "Rolling, recursive evolving and asymmetric causality between crude oil and gold prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Vassoler, R.T. & Zebende, G.F., 2012. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient apply in time series of air temperature and air relative humidity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(7), pages 2438-2443.
    14. Oliveira Filho, F.M. & Leyva Cruz, J.A. & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "Analysis of the EEG bio-signals during the reading task by DFA method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 664-671.
    15. Zebende, G.F. & da Silva, M.F. & Machado Filho, A., 2013. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient differentiation: Theoretical and practical approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1756-1761.
    16. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
    17. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    18. Zebende, G.F. & Filho, A. Machado, 2009. "Cross-correlation between time series of vehicles and passengers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(23), pages 4863-4866.
    19. Rodrigues Santos, F. & Brito, A.A. & de Castro, A.P.N. & Almeida, M.P. & da Cunha Lima, A.T. & Zebende, G.F. & da Cunha Lima, I.C., 2018. "Detection of the persistency of the blockages symmetry influence on the multi-scale cross-correlations of the velocity fields in internal turbulent flows in pipelines," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 294-301.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rui Manuel Dias & Mariana Chambino & Nuno Teixeira & Paulo Alexandre & Paula Heliodoro, 2023. "Balancing Portfolios with Metals: A Safe Haven for Green Energy Investors?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-21, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F. & Guedes, E.F., 2021. "Analysis of intentional lethal violent crimes: A sliding windows approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    2. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder Johson de Area Leão & Silva, Marcus Fernandes da & Pereira, Hernane Borges, 2019. "Detrended correlation coefficients between oil and stock markets: The effect of the 2008 crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 86-96.
    3. Guedes, E.F. & Brito, A.A. & Oliveira Filho, F.M. & Fernandez, B.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F., 2018. "Statistical test for ΔρDCCA cross-correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 501(C), pages 134-140.
    4. da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & Guedes, E.F., 2021. "Statistical test for Multiple Detrended Cross-Correlation Coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).
    5. Zebende, G.F. & Brito, A.A. & Castro, A.P., 2020. "DCCA cross-correlation analysis in time-series with removed parts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    6. Shen, Chenhua, 2019. "The influence of a scaling exponent on ρDCCA: A spatial cross-correlation pattern of precipitation records over eastern China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 579-590.
    7. Paiva, Aureliano Sancho Souza & Rivera-Castro, Miguel Angel & Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva, 2018. "DCCA analysis of renewable and conventional energy prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1408-1414.
    8. Ferreira, Paulo & Loures, Luís & Nunes, José & Brito, Paulo, 2018. "Are renewable energy stocks a possibility to diversify portfolios considering an environmentally friendly approach? The view of DCCA correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 675-681.
    9. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2015. "Finite sample properties of power-law cross-correlations estimators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 513-525.
    10. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2014. "Measuring correlations between non-stationary series with DCCA coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 291-298.
    11. Zebende, G.F. & da Silva Filho, A.M., 2018. "Detrended Multiple Cross-Correlation Coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 91-97.
    12. Zebende, G.F. & Brito, A.A. & Silva Filho, A.M. & Castro, A.P., 2018. "ρDCCA applied between air temperature and relative humidity: An hour/hour view," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 17-26.
    13. Liu, Li & Ma, Guofeng, 2014. "Cross-correlation between crude oil and refined product prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 284-293.
    14. Guedes, E. & Dionísio, A. & Ferreira, P.J. & Zebende, G.F., 2017. "DCCA cross-correlation in blue-chips companies: A view of the 2008 financial crisis in the Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 38-47.
    15. Ferreira, Paulo, 2016. "Does the Euro crisis change the cross-correlation pattern between bank shares and national indexes?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 320-329.
    16. Chen, Yingyuan & Cai, Lihui & Wang, Ruofan & Song, Zhenxi & Deng, Bin & Wang, Jiang & Yu, Haitao, 2018. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficients reveals the change of both synchronization and oscillation in EEG of Alzheimer disease patients," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 171-184.
    17. Contreras-Reyes, Javier E. & Idrovo-Aguirre, Byron J., 2020. "Backcasting and forecasting time series using detrended cross-correlation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    18. da Silva, Marcus Fernandes & Leão Pereira, Éder Johnson de Area & da Silva Filho, Aloisio Machado & Nunes de Castro, Arleys Pereira & Miranda, José Garcia Vivas & Zebende, Gilney Figueira, 2015. "Quantifying cross-correlation between Ibovespa and Brazilian blue-chips: The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 124-129.
    19. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2021. "Dynamic cross-correlation and dynamic contagion of stock markets: a sliding windows approach with the DCCA correlation coefficient," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1127-1156, March.
    20. Anderson Palmeira & Éder Pereira & Paulo Ferreira & Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas & Davidson Martins Moreira, 2022. "Long-Term Correlations and Cross-Correlations in Meteorological Variables and Air Pollution in a Coastal Urban Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:5:p:3945-:d:1076109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.