IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/2227.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A háborús szankciós bejelentések hatásai a nyersolajárfolyamokra
[The impact of sanction announcements on the prices of various crude oils in the shadow of war]

Author

Listed:
  • Kökény, László
  • Kelemen, Hunor

Abstract

A tanulmány a különböző, olajipart érintő, Oroszországot célzó szankciós bejelentések hatását vizsgálja három - a Brent-, a WTI- és az Urals-típusú - nyersolaj-portfólió azonnali árfolyamára vonatkozóan. Az orosz-ukrán háború kezdetét követő időszakot vizsgálva összefüggést keresünk a bejelentések és a piac mozgása között. Eseményelemzés módszertanával nézzük meg a piaci hatékonyságot négy kiemelt esemény időszakában (az Egyesült Államok embargója, a G7-ársapka, valamint a 6. és a 8. EU-szankciós csomag elfogadása). Azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a várakozásokhoz képest voltak-e szignifikáns eltérések a tényleges hozamokban. Az eredmények láttán kijelenthető, hogy a különböző bejelentések eltérően reagáltak: a meglepetésszerű bejelentések szignifikáns hatást váltottak ki, míg a politikai párbeszéddel megelőzött bejelentések információs tartalma már előre beépült árakba. Továbbá a háború után elváltak az Urals-típusú olajportfólió értékei a másik két vizsgált portfólió hozamainak mozgásától. A tanulmány végén a kutatás gyakorlati, szakpolitikai és elméleti eredményeit is összefoglaljuk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kökény, László & Kelemen, Hunor, 2025. "A háborús szankciós bejelentések hatásai a nyersolajárfolyamokra [The impact of sanction announcements on the prices of various crude oils in the shadow of war]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 20-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2227
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2025.1.20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=2227
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2025.1.20?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnson, Simon & Rachel, Lukasz & Wolfram, Catherine, 2023. "Design and implementation of the price cap on Russian oil exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1244-1252.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3299-3303, October.
    3. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    4. Jeetendra Dangol, 2008. "Unanticipated Political Events and Stock Returns: An Event Study," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 20, pages 86-110, April.
    5. Ludvig, Zsuzsa, 2013. "Oroszország új világgazdasági szerepben? [Is Russias role in the world economy changing?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1090-1118.
    6. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    7. Burton G. Malkiel, 2005. "Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-9, February.
    8. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Daouk, Hazem & Jorgenson, Brian & Kehr, Carl-Heinrich, 2000. "When an event is not an event: the curious case of an emerging market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 69-101, January.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    10. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.
    11. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
    12. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Schmidt, Peter & Wagner, Marcus & Ziegler, Andreas, 2013. "Does the stock market value the inclusion in a sustainability stock index? An event study analysis for German firms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 497-509.
    13. Fűrész, Diána Ivett & Kiss, Dorina & Rappai, Gábor, 2024. "Az európai uniós szankciók eseményhatás-elemzéssel történő vizsgálata [Examining the effect of EU sanctions using the event study methodology]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1032-1052.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. repec:clg:wpaper:2007-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    17. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
    18. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Dlawar Mahdi Hadi & Salih Katircioglu & Cahit Adaoglu, 2020. "The vulnerability of tourism firms’ stocks to the terrorist incidents," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 1138-1152, May.
    20. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Haroon, Omair & Mehmood, Fahad & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Are oil prices efficient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 362-370.
    21. Ahmad Bash & Abdullah M. Al-Awadhi, 2023. "Presidential elections and stock market outcomes: An event-study on the effect of Turkey's Presidential Elections on Borsa Istanbul," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 2265659-226, October.
    22. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Cisneros, Myriam & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Soriano, Angel, 2002. "Multifractal Hurst analysis of crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 651-670.
    23. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    24. Nguyen, Phuc Lam Thy & Alsakka, Rasha & Mantovan, Noemi, 2023. "Political preferences and stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    25. Nygaard, Knut & Sørensen, Lars Qvigstad, 2024. "Betting on war? Oil prices, stock returns, and extreme geopolitical events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    26. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
    27. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    28. Yousaf, Imran & Patel, Ritesh & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    29. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    30. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    31. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2010. "Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 987-992, September.
    32. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2010. "The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1467-1476, November.
    33. Perry Sadorsky, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    34. Fan, Qingju & Liu, Shuanggui & Wang, Kehao, 2019. "Multiscale multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of multivariate time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 532(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    2. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Time-varying long range dependence in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 318-327.
    3. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    4. António Miguel Martins, 2024. "Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 619-630, April.
    5. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    6. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
    7. Konchitchki, Yaniv & O'Leary, Daniel E., 2011. "Event study methodologies in information systems research," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 99-115.
    8. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Owusu, Patrick, 2023. "Measuring price efficiency in petroleum markets: New insights using various long-range dependence techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. AitSahlia, Farid & Yoon, Joon-Hui, 2016. "Information stages in efficient markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 84-94.
    11. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu, 2013. "Efficiency of Crude Oil Futures Markets: New Evidence from Multifractal Detrending Moving Average Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 393-414, December.
    12. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
    13. Gu, Rongbao & Zhang, Bing, 2016. "Is efficiency of crude oil market affected by multifractality? Evidence from the WTI crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 151-158.
    14. Truzaar Dordi & Olaf Weber, 2019. "The Impact of Divestment Announcements on the Share Price of Fossil Fuel Stocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, June.
    15. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Are the crude oil markets really becoming more efficient over time? Some new evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 253-263.
    16. Pushpanjali Kaul & Sangeeta Arora, 2022. "Reinventing a brand’s identity: effect of name and logo announcements on the stock price of Indian banks," Journal of Brand Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(3), pages 258-270, May.
    17. Nunes, Mauro Fracarolli, 2018. "Supply chain contamination: An exploratory approach on the collateral effects of negative corporate events," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 573-587.
    18. Yassin Denis Bouzzine & Rainer Lueg, 2020. "The contagion effect of environmental violations: The case of Dieselgate in Germany," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 3187-3202, December.
    19. Martins, António Miguel & Correia, Pedro & Gouveia, Ricardo, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict: The effect on European banks’ stock market returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Solis, Ricardo, 2010. "Crude oil market efficiency and modeling: Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 993-1000, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Odon Sok to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.