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Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration

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  1. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  2. Michał Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic Forecasting of German Electricity Imbalance Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
  3. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Mazairac, Wiet & De Schutter, Bart, 2019. "A 1-dimensional continuous and smooth model for thermally stratified storage tanks including mixing and buoyancy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 640-655.
  4. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  5. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
  6. F. Cordoni, 2020. "A comparison of modern deep neural network architectures for energy spot price forecasting," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 189-210, December.
  7. Kandpal, Bakul & Pareek, Parikshit & Verma, Ashu, 2022. "A robust day-ahead scheduling strategy for EV charging stations in unbalanced distribution grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
  8. Saez, Yago & Mochon, Asuncion & Corona, Luis & Isasi, Pedro, 2019. "Integration in the European electricity market: A machine learning-based convergence analysis for the Central Western Europe region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 549-566.
  9. Simon Hirsch & Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Online Distributional Regression," Papers 2407.08750, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  10. Moon, Jongwoo & Jung, Tae Yong, 2020. "A critical review of Korea's long-term contract for renewable energy auctions: The relationship between the import price of liquefied natural gas and system marginal price," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  11. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Jesus Lopez-Sotelo & David Celeita, 2023. "An Intra-Day Electricity Price Forecasting Based on a Probabilistic Transformer Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-24, September.
  12. Hu, Yu & Armada, Miguel & Jesús Sánchez, María, 2022. "Potential utilization of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the major European electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
  13. Poplavskaya, Ksenia & Lago, Jesus & Strömer, Stefan & de Vries, Laurens, 2021. "Making the most of short-term flexibility in the balancing market: Opportunities and challenges of voluntary bids in the new balancing market design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  14. Zorana Božić & Dušan Dobromirov & Jovana Arsić & Mladen Radišić & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Power Exchange Prices: Comparison of Volatility in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
  15. Ismael Ahrazem Dfuf & José Manuel Mira McWilliams & María Camino González Fernández, 2019. "Multi-Output Conditional Inference Trees Applied to the Electricity Market: Variable Importance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
  16. Yiyuan Chen & Yufeng Wang & Jianhua Ma & Qun Jin, 2019. "BRIM: An Accurate Electricity Spot Price Prediction Scheme-Based Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network and Integrated Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
  17. Vasudharini Sridharan & Mingjian Tuo & Xingpeng Li, 2022. "Wholesale Electricity Price Forecasting Using Integrated Long-Term Recurrent Convolutional Network Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-16, October.
  18. Shahzad Aslam & Nasir Ayub & Umer Farooq & Muhammad Junaid Alvi & Fahad R. Albogamy & Gul Rukh & Syed Irtaza Haider & Ahmad Taher Azar & Rasool Bukhsh, 2021. "Towards Electric Price and Load Forecasting Using CNN-Based Ensembler in Smart Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-28, November.
  19. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
  20. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
  21. Beltrán, Sergio & Castro, Alain & Irizar, Ion & Naveran, Gorka & Yeregui, Imanol, 2022. "Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
  22. Li, Wei & Becker, Denis Mike, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
  23. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
  24. Gabrielli, Paolo & Wüthrich, Moritz & Blume, Steffen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
  25. Sæther, Bjarne & Neumann, Anne, 2024. "The effect of the 2022 energy crisis on electricity markets ashore the North Sea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  26. Härtel, Philipp & Korpås, Magnus, 2021. "Demystifying market clearing and price setting effects in low-carbon energy systems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  27. Christopher Kath, 2019. "Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID): Evidence from the German Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
  28. Hitoshi Hamori & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Does Ensemble Learning Always Lead to Better Forecasts?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 51-56, March.
  29. Poplavskaya, Ksenia & Lago, Jesus & de Vries, Laurens, 2020. "Effect of market design on strategic bidding behavior: Model-based analysis of European electricity balancing markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
  30. Zalzar, Shaghayegh & Bompard, Ettore & Purvins, Arturs & Masera, Marcelo, 2020. "The impacts of an integrated European adjustment market for electricity under high share of renewables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  31. Yang, Yifan & Guo, Ju’e & Li, Yi & Zhou, Jiandong, 2024. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices with spatial dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1255-1270.
  32. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2020. "Performance of alternative electricity price forecasting methods: Findings from the Greek and Hungarian power exchanges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  33. Heidarpanah, Mohammadreza & Hooshyaripor, Farhad & Fazeli, Meysam, 2023. "Daily electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence models in the Iranian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
  34. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  35. Suryanarayana, Gowri & Lago, Jesus & Geysen, Davy & Aleksiejuk, Piotr & Johansson, Christian, 2018. "Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-149.
  36. Brinkel, Nico & Zijlstra, Marle & van Bezu, Ronald & van Twuijver, Tim & Lampropoulos, Ioannis & van Sark, Wilfried, 2023. "A comparative analysis of charging strategies for battery electric buses in wholesale electricity and ancillary services markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  37. Eissa, M.M., 2019. "Developing incentive demand response with commercial energy management system (CEMS) based on diffusion model, smart meters and new communication protocol," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 273-292.
  38. Kavita Jain & Muhammed Basheer Jasser & Muzaffar Hamzah & Akash Saxena & Ali Wagdy Mohamed, 2022. "Harris Hawk Optimization-Based Deep Neural Networks Architecture for Optimal Bidding in the Electricity Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, June.
  39. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
  40. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
  41. Hanyao Gao & Gang Kou & Haiming Liang & Hengjie Zhang & Xiangrui Chao & Cong-Cong Li & Yucheng Dong, 2024. "Machine learning in business and finance: a literature review and research opportunities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-35, December.
  42. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "Incorporating unit commitment aspects to the European electricity markets algorithm: An optimization model for the joint clearing of energy and reserve markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 235-258.
  43. Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  44. Demir, Sumeyra & Mincev, Krystof & Kok, Koen & Paterakis, Nikolaos G., 2021. "Data augmentation for time series regression: Applying transformations, autoencoders and adversarial networks to electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
  45. Aqdas Naz & Muhammad Umar Javed & Nadeem Javaid & Tanzila Saba & Musaed Alhussein & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Short-Term Electric Load and Price Forecasting Using Enhanced Extreme Learning Machine Optimization in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-30, March.
  46. Janke, Leandro & McDonagh, Shane & Weinrich, Sören & Murphy, Jerry & Nilsson, Daniel & Hansson, Per-Anders & Nordberg, Åke, 2020. "Optimizing power-to-H2 participation in the Nord Pool electricity market: Effects of different bidding strategies on plant operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 820-836.
  47. Mojgan Hojabri & Severin Nowak & Antonios Papaemmanouil, 2023. "ML-Based Intermittent Fault Detection, Classification, and Branch Identification in a Distribution Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
  48. Chang, Zihan & Zhang, Yang & Chen, Wenbo, 2019. "Electricity price prediction based on hybrid model of adam optimized LSTM neural network and wavelet transform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  49. Singh, Priyanka & Dwivedi, Pragya, 2018. "Integration of new evolutionary approach with artificial neural network for solving short term load forecast problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 537-549.
  50. Li, Kangping & Li, Zhenghui & Huang, Chunyi & Ai, Qian, 2024. "Online transfer learning-based residential demand response potential forecasting for load aggregator," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
  51. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "GHTnet: Tri-Branch deep learning network for real-time electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
  52. Sapountzoglou, Nikolaos & Lago, Jesus & De Schutter, Bart & Raison, Bertrand, 2020. "A generalizable and sensor-independent deep learning method for fault detection and location in low-voltage distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
  53. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
  54. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
  55. Rizeakos, V. & Bachoumis, A. & Andriopoulos, N. & Birbas, M. & Birbas, A., 2023. "Deep learning-based application for fault location identification and type classification in active distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
  56. Henrik Zsiborács & Gábor Pintér & András Vincze & Nóra Hegedűsné Baranyai, 2022. "Wind Power Generation Scheduling Accuracy in Europe: An Overview of ENTSO-E Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-58, December.
  57. Grzegorz Marcjasz, 2020. "Forecasting Electricity Prices Using Deep Neural Networks: A Robust Hyper-Parameter Selection Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
  58. Micha{l} Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices," Papers 2205.11439, arXiv.org.
  59. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2022. "An integrated model for electricity market coupling simulations: Evidence from the European power market crossroad," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  60. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
  61. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
  62. Busu Mihail & ClodniȚchi Roxana & MureȘan Manuela Liliana, 2019. "A correlation analysis of the spot market prices of the Romanian electricity sector," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 150-162, March.
  63. Fraunholz, Christoph & Kraft, Emil & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2021. "Advanced price forecasting in agent-based electricity market simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
  64. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Jesus Lago & Rafa{l} Weron, 2020. "Neural networks in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Single vs. multiple outputs," Papers 2008.08006, arXiv.org.
  65. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
  66. Ostadi, Bakhtiar & Motamedi Sedeh, Omid & Husseinzadeh Kashan, Ali, 2020. "Risk-based optimal bidding patterns in the deregulated power market using extended Markowitz model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
  67. Bejan, Ioana & Jensen, Carsten Lynge & Andersen, Laura M. & Hansen, Lars Gårn, 2021. "Inducing flexibility of household electricity demand: The overlooked costs of reacting to dynamic incentives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
  68. Singh, Priyanka & Kottath, Rahul, 2022. "Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  69. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
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