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Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence

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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Daily Behavioral Bias: The Representative Heuristic
    by Miguel in Simoleon Sense on 2009-06-15 22:53:22

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Charles A. Holt & Lisa R. Anderson, 1996. "Classroom Games: Understanding Bayes' Rule," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 179-187, Spring.
  2. Jeong-Yoo Kim, 2023. "Proposing New Equilibrium Concepts in Dynamic Games with Noisy Signals," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 413-443.
  3. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2003. "Bayesian Updating vs. Reinforcement and Affect: A Laboratory Study," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000180, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2020. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8168, CESifo.
  5. Asanov, Igor, 2021. "Bandit cascade: A test of observational learning in the bandit problem," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 150-171.
  6. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio & Katuščák, Peter & Smith, John, 2020. "Central tendency bias in belief elicitation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  7. Adrian Bruhin & Fidel Petros & Luís Santos-Pinto, 2024. "The role of self-confidence in teamwork: experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(3), pages 687-712, July.
  8. Piotr Evdokimov & Umberto Garfagnini, 2022. "Higher-order learning," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1234-1266, September.
  9. Cheng, Ing-Haw & Hsiaw, Alice, 2022. "Distrust in experts and the origins of disagreement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  10. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  11. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine, 2012. "Faith in intuition and behavioral biases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 182-192.
  12. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
  13. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2005. "When Optimal Choices Feel Wrong: A Laboratory Study of Bayesian Updating, Complexity, and Affect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1300-1309, September.
  14. Bachmann, Kremena, 2024. "Do you have a choice?: Implications for belief updating and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  15. Zinn, Jesse, 2013. "Modelling Biased Judgement with Weighted Updating," MPRA Paper 50310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Sean P. Sullivan, 2016. "Why Wait to Settle? An Experimental Test of the Asymmetric-Information Hypothesis," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 497-525.
  17. Matthias Sutter, 2009. "Deception Through Telling the Truth?! Experimental Evidence From Individuals and Teams," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 47-60, January.
  18. Ernesto Dal Bó & Pedro Dal Bó & Erik Eyster, 2018. "The Demand for Bad Policy when Voters Underappreciate Equilibrium Effects," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 964-998.
  19. Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
  20. Juan Dubra & Jean-Pierre Benoît & Giorgia Romagnoli, 2019. "Belief elicitation when more than money matters," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1901, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
  21. Nunnari, Salvatore & Zapal, Jan, 2016. "Gambler's fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 275-294.
  22. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Alexander Jaudas & Alexander Ritschel, 2021. "Effortful Bayesian updating: A pupil-dilation study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 81-102, August.
  23. Ouwersloot, Hans & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 1998. "Errors in probability updating behaviour : Measurement and impact analysis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 535-563, October.
  24. M. Kathleen Ngangoué & Georg Weizsäcker, 2021. "Learning from Unrealized versus Realized Prices," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 174-201, May.
  25. Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Décamps & Stefano Lovo, 2015. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1378-1397, June.
  26. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:5:p:962-987 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Jean-Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra & Giorgia Romagnoli, 2022. "Belief Elicitation When More than Money Matters: Controlling for "Control"," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 837-888, August.
  28. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd & Ulm, Eric R., 2017. "Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 430-448.
  29. Tarık Kara & Emin Karagözoğlu & Elif Özcan-Tok, 2021. "Bargaining, Reference Points, and Limited Influence," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 326-362, June.
  30. Benjamin Enke & Thomas Graeber, 2019. "Cognitive Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 7971, CESifo.
  31. Pedro Robalo & Rei S. Sayag, 2012. "Information at a Cost: A Lab Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-143/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
  32. Uri Gneezy & Moshe Hoffman & Mark A Lane & John A List & Jeffrey A Livingston & Michael J Seiler, 2023. "Can wishful thinking explain evidence for overconfidence? An experiment on belief updating," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 35-54.
  33. Zizzo, Daniel John & Stolarz-Fantino, Stephanie & Wen, Julie & Fantino, Edmund, 2000. "A violation of the monotonicity axiom: experimental evidence on the conjunction fallacy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 263-276, March.
  34. Etan A. Green & Justin M. Rao & David Rothschild, 2019. "A Sharp Test of the Portability of Expertise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2820-2831, June.
  35. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:5:p:962-987 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Cacault, Maria Paula & Grieder, Manuel, 2019. "How group identification distorts beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 63-76.
  37. Feduzi, Alberto & Runde, Jochen, 2014. "Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach to management decision-making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 268-283.
  38. Charlotte Klempt & Kerstin Pull, 2018. "The hidden costs of control revisited: Should a sanctioning policy be announced in advance?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 158-170, March.
  39. Antonio Estache & Renaud Foucart & Konstantinos Georgalos, 2024. "Preference for Control vs. Random Dictatorship," Working Papers 413554011, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  40. Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Jon Eguia & William Zame, 2014. "Asset Prices and Asymmetric Reasoning," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/640, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  41. Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Wright, Vic, 2001. "Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers’ response to change under uncertainty," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(4), pages 1-26.
  42. Dickinson, David L. & Drummond, Sean P. A., 2008. "The effects of total sleep deprivation on bayesian updating," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 181-190, February.
  43. Albrecht, Konstanze & von Essen, Emma & Parys, Juliane & Szech, Nora, 2013. "Updating, self-confidence, and discrimination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 144-169.
  44. Hill, Brian, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  45. Michal Krawczyk & Joanna Rachubik, 2018. "Verifying the representativeness heuristic: A field experiment with real-life lottery tickets," Natural Field Experiments 00699, The Field Experiments Website.
  46. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
  47. Boone, Christophe & De Brabander, Bert & van Witteloostuijn, Arjen, 1999. "The impact of personality on behavior in five Prisoner's Dilemma games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 343-377, June.
  48. Ronald Bosman & Frans A.A.M. van Winden, 1999. "The Behavioral Impact of Emotions in a Power to take Game: An Experimental Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-039/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  49. Matthias Sutter & Ronald Bosman & Martin Kocher & Frans van Winden, 2003. "Experimental evidence of the importance of gender pairing in bargaining," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-27, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  50. Karsten Hueffer & Miguel A. Fonseca & Anthony Leiserowitz & Karen M. Taylor, 2013. "The wisdom of crowds: Predicting a weather and climate-related event," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(2), pages 91-105, March.
  51. Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek & Stekler, Herman O., 2018. "What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 238-246.
  52. Daniel Read & Yael Grushka-Cockayne, 2007. "The Similarity Heuristic," Department of Economics Working Papers 2007_09, Durham University, Department of Economics.
  53. Alexander Coutts, 2019. "Good news and bad news are still news: experimental evidence on belief updating," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 369-395, June.
  54. Guillaume Hollard & Sébastien Massoni & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2016. "In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 80(3), pages 363-387, March.
  55. Amalia Di Girolamo & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & J. Todd Swarthout, 2013. "Characterizing Financial and Statistical Literacy," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2013-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  56. Kai Barron, 2021. "Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
  57. Barash, Jori & Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Kodaverdian, Niree, 2019. "Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 305-322.
  58. Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Economics Working Papers E00-282, University of California at Berkeley.
  59. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Mihm, Maximilian, 2023. "An Axiomatic Characterization of Bayesian Updating," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  60. Goodwin, Paul, 2015. "When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: Reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1686-1691.
  61. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
  62. Aguirregabiria Victor & Xie Erhao, 2021. "Identification of Non-Equilibrium Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, January.
  63. Li, Jing & Zhang, Xiao, 2022. "Do people provide good advice?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 44-64.
  64. Sinkey, Michael, 2015. "How do experts update beliefs? Lessons from a non-market environment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-63.
  65. Guillaume Hollard & Sébastien Massoni & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2010. "Subjective beliefs formation and elicitation rules: experimental evidence," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10088, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  66. Mago, Shakun D. & Razzolini, Laura, 2019. "Best-of-five contest: An experiment on gender differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 164-187.
  67. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Michele Garagnani, 2022. "Strength of preference and decisions under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 309-329, June.
  68. Constantinos Antoniou & Glenn Harrison & Morten Lau & Daniel Read, 2015. "Subjective Bayesian beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 35-54, February.
  69. Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2009. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 229-251, January.
  70. Dickinson, David L. & Reid, Parker, 2023. "Gambling Habits and Probability Judgements in a Bayesian Task Environment," IZA Discussion Papers 16306, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  71. Biener, Christian & Landmann, Andreas & Santana, Maria Isabel, 2019. "Contract nonperformance risk and uncertainty in insurance markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 65-83.
  72. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer, 2014. "Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 923-938, April.
  73. Lazarina Butkovich & Nina Butkovich & Saba Devdariani & Charles R. Plott & Han Seo, 2020. "Fake News, Information Herds, Cascades, and Economic Knowledge," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(6), pages 806-828, November.
  74. Jesse Aaron Zinn, 2015. "Expanding the Weighted Updating Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 182-186.
  75. Robalo, Pedro & Sayag, Rei, 2018. "Paying is believing: The effect of costly information on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 114-125.
  76. David Owens Jr. & Zachary Grossman Jr. & Ryan Fackler Jr., 2014. "The Control Premium: A Preference for Payoff Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 138-161, November.
  77. Boussaidi, Ramzi & AlSaggaf, Majid Ibrahim, 2022. "Contrarian profits and representativeness heuristic in the MENA stock markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  78. Kuhberger, Anton & Schulte-Mecklenbeck, Michael & Perner, Josef, 2002. "Framing decisions: Hypothetical and real," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 1162-1175, November.
  79. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2014. "Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-140.
  80. Ronald Bosman & Matthias Sutter & Frans van Winden, 2000. "Emotional Hazard and Real Effort in a Power-to-Take Game," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-106/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  81. Sam Jones & Ricardo Santos & Gimelgo Xirinda, 2020. "Misinformed, mismatched, or misled?: Explaining the gap between expected and realized graduate earnings in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  82. Burdea, Valeria & Woon, Jonathan, 2022. "Online belief elicitation methods," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  83. Lee, Yong-Ju & Lim, Wooyoung & Zhao, Chen, 2023. "Cheap talk with prior-biased inferences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 254-280.
  84. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  85. Fan, Chinn-Ping, 2002. "Allais paradox in the small," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 411-421, November.
  86. Gerke, Wolfgang & Arneth, Stefan & Syha, Christine, 2000. "The impact of the order book privilege on traders' behavior and the market process: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 167-189, April.
  87. Tsang, Ming, 2022. "Risk perception in an endogenous information environment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 355-372.
  88. Holt, Charles A. & Smith, Angela M., 2009. "An update on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 125-134, February.
  89. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Massimo Guidolin & Michael T. Owyang & Makoto Shimoji, 2003. "Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications," Working Papers 2003-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  91. Ingrid Burfurd & Tom Wilkening, 2018. "Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 4(1), pages 15-28, July.
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  93. Charness, Gary & Dave, Chetan, 2017. "Confirmation bias with motivated beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-23.
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  95. Ambuehl, Sandro & Li, Shengwu, 2018. "Belief updating and the demand for information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 21-39.
  96. Ryan Oprea & Sevgi Yuksel, 2022. "Social Exchange of Motivated Beliefs," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 667-699.
  97. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  98. Murray-Prior, Roy, 1998. "Modelling farmer behaviour: a personal construct theory interpretation of hierarchical decision models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 541-556, August.
  99. Jinkwon Lee, 2007. "Repetition And Financial Incentives In Economics Experiments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 628-681, July.
  100. Marian V. Jones & Lucrezia Casulli, 2014. "International Entrepreneurship: Exploring the Logic and Utility of Individual Experience through Comparative Reasoning Approaches," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 38(1), pages 45-69, January.
  101. Hajdu, Gergely & Krusper, Balázs, 2023. "Choice-induced Sticky Learning," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 349, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  102. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  103. Dickinson, David L. & Drummond, Sean P. A., 2008. "The effects of total sleep deprivation on bayesian updating," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 181-190, February.
  104. Ned Augenblick & Eben Lazarus & Michael Thaler, 2021. "Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals," Papers 2109.09871, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
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  106. Caballero, Adrián & López-Pérez, Raúl, 2022. "Heterogeneous primacy and recency effects in frequency estimation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 182-203.
  107. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
  108. Ronald Bosman & Frans van Winden, 2002. "Emotional Hazard in a Power-to-take Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 147-169, January.
  109. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Alexander Ritschel, 2020. "Cognitive load in economic decisions," ECON - Working Papers 354, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
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