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Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment

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  • Bisière, Christophe
  • Décamps, Jean-Paul
  • Lovo, Stefano

Abstract

We conduct a series of experiments that simulate trading in financial markets and which allows us to identify the different effects that subjects’ risk attitudes and belief updating rules have on the information content of the order flow. We find that there are very few risk-neutral subjects and that subjects displaying risk aversion or risk-loving tend to ignore private information when their prior beliefs on the asset fundamentals are strong. Consequently, private information struggles penetrating trading prices. We find evidence of non-Bayesian belief updating (confirmation bias and under-confidence). This reduces (improves) market efficiency when subjects’ prior beliefs are weak (strong).

Suggested Citation

  • Bisière, Christophe & Décamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2009. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," IDEI Working Papers 552, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised May 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:20671
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    2. Charness, Gary & Dave, Chetan, 2017. "Confirmation bias with motivated beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-23.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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