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Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood

Author

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  • Barash, Jori
  • Brocas, Isabelle
  • Carrillo, Juan D.
  • Kodaverdian, Niree

Abstract

In this laboratory experiment, children and teenagers learn the composition of balls in an urn through sampling with replacement. We find significant aggregate departures from optimal Bayesian learning across all ages, but also important developmental trajectories. Two inference-based and two heuristic-based strategies capture the behavior of 65% to 90% of participants. Many of the youngest children (K to 2nd grade) base their decisions only on the last piece of information and use evolutionary heuristics (such as the “Win-Stay, Lose-Switch” strategy) to guide their choices. Older children and teenagers are gradually able to condition their decisions on all previous information but they often fall prey of the gambler’s fallacy. Only the oldest participants display optimal Bayesian reasoning. These results are modulated by task complexity, and Bayesian reasoning is evidenced earlier when inferences are simpler.

Suggested Citation

  • Barash, Jori & Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Kodaverdian, Niree, 2019. "Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 305-322.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:159:y:2019:i:c:p:305-322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2018.05.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Combs, T. Dalton & Kodaverdian, Niree, 2019. "The development of consistent decision-making across economic domains," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 217-240.
    2. Dickinson, David L. & Reid, Parker, 2023. "Gambling Habits and Probability Judgements in a Bayesian Task Environment," IZA Discussion Papers 16306, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. John A. List & Ragan Petrie & Anya Samek, 2023. "How Experiments with Children Inform Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 504-564, June.
    4. Tymula, Agnieszka & Wang, Xueting, 2021. "Increased risk-taking, not loss tolerance, drives adolescents’ propensity to choose risky prospects more often under peer observation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 439-457.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Laboratory experiment; Developmental economics; Learning; Bayesian updating; Heuristic reasoning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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