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EGARCH models with fat tails, skewness and leverage

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  1. Szabolcs Blazsek & Marco Villatoro, 2015. "Is Beta- t -EGARCH(1,1) superior to GARCH(1,1)?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1764-1774, April.
  2. Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom & Soury, Manel, 2015. "Energy markets and CO2 emissions: Analysis by stochastic copula autoregressive model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 417-429.
  3. Tata Subba Rao & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson & Andrew Harvey & Rutger-Jan Lange, 2017. "Volatility Modeling with a Generalized t Distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 175-190, March.
  4. Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Bilel Sanhaji, 2016. "Tests of the Constancy of Conditional Correlations of Unknown Functional Form in Multivariate GARCH Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 77-101.
  5. Szabolcs Blazsek & Vicente Mendoza, 2016. "QARMA-Beta- t -EGARCH versus ARMA-GARCH: an application to S&P 500," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(12), pages 1119-1129, March.
  6. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Burkhanov, Aktam Usmanovich & Usmonov, Bunyod & Khajimuratov, Nizomjon Shukurullaevich & Khurramova, Madina Mansur qizi, 2024. "The role of sudden variance shifts in predicting volatility in bioenergy crop markets under structural breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  7. Song, Shijia & Li, Handong, 2022. "Predicting VaR for China's stock market: A score-driven model based on normal inverse Gaussian distribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  8. Mohamed Chikhi & Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra, 2019. "Measuring Success: Does Predictive Ability of an Asset Price Rest in 'Memory'? Insights from a New Approach," Working Papers 11-19, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  9. Alanya-Beltran Willy, 2023. "Modelling volatility dependence with score copula models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(5), pages 649-668, December.
  10. Nzeh Innocent Chile & Innocent.U. Duru & Abubakar Yusuf & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze, 2021. "Modelling the Monetary Impact of Oil Price Volatility in Nigeria: Evidence from GARCH Models," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 70-94, June.
  11. Fernanda Maria Müller & Fábio M Bayer, 2017. "Improved two-component tests in Beta-Skew-t-EGARCH models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2364-2373.
  12. Catania, Leopoldo & Proietti, Tommaso, 2020. "Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1301-1317.
  13. Krenar AVDULAJ & Jozef BARUNIK, 2013. "Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 425-442, November.
  14. Catania, Leopoldo & Grassi, Stefano, 2022. "Forecasting cryptocurrency volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 878-894.
  15. Harvey,Andrew C., 2013. "Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107034723, November.
  16. De Lira Salvatierra, Irving & Patton, Andrew J., 2015. "Dynamic copula models and high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 120-135.
  17. Fatih Kazova & Ayça Büyükyılmaz Ercan, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of the Volatility Structure of Cryptocurrencies," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(35), pages 33-57, December.
  18. Song, Shijia & Tian, Fei & Li, Handong, 2021. "An intraday-return-based Value-at-Risk model driven by dynamic conditional score with censored generalized Pareto distribution," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  19. Tranberg, Bo & Hansen, Rasmus Thrane & Catania, Leopoldo, 2020. "Managing volumetric risk of long-term power purchase agreements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  20. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2015. "Switching-GAS Copula Models With Application to Systemic Risk," Papers 1504.03733, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
  21. Blasques, Francisco & van Brummelen, Janneke & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2022. "Maximum likelihood estimation for score-driven models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 325-346.
  22. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA, 2019. "Does Predictive Ability of an Asset Price Rest in 'Memory'? Insights from a New Approach," Working Papers of BETA 2019-43, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  23. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," AMSE Working Papers 1520, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  24. Michele Caivano & Andrew Harvey, 2014. "Time-series models with an EGB2 conditional distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 558-571, November.
  25. Javed Farrukh & Podgórski Krzysztof, 2017. "Tail Behavior and Dependence Structure in the APARCH Model," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-48, July.
  26. Gao, Yang & Li, Yangyang & Zhao, Chengjie & Wang, Yaojun, 2022. "Risk spillover analysis across worldwide ESG stock markets: New evidence from the frequency-domain," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  27. Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Bilel Sanhaji, 2015. "Testing the Constancy of Conditional Correlations in Multivariate GARCH-type Models (Extended Version with Appendix)," Working Papers halshs-01133751, HAL.
  28. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA, 2019. "Memory that Drives! New Insights into Forecasting Performance of Stock Prices from SEMIFARMA-AEGAS Model," Working Papers 07-19, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  29. Gaete, Michael & Herrera, Rodrigo, 2023. "Diversification benefits of commodities in portfolio allocation: A dynamic factor copula approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  30. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Nguyen, Hoang & Tran, Minh-Ngoc, 2023. "Bayesian predictive distributions of oil returns using mixed data sampling volatility models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
  31. Hafner, Christian M. & Wang, Linqi, 2023. "A dynamic conditional score model for the log correlation matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  32. Andrew Harvey & Alessandra Luati, 2014. "Filtering With Heavy Tails," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1112-1122, September.
  33. Deniz Erer, 2023. "The Impact of News Related Covid-19 on Exchange Rate Volatility:A New Evidence From Generalized Autoregressive Score Model," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(38), pages 105-126, June.
  34. Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle & Palm, Franz C., 2016. "Testing for jumps in conditionally Gaussian ARMA–GARCH models, a robust approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 383-400.
  35. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2017. "Forecasting crude-oil market volatility: Further evidence with jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 508-519.
  36. Christian Francq & Olivier Wintenberger & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2018. "Goodness-of-fit tests for Log-GARCH and EGARCH models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(1), pages 27-51, March.
  37. Dahiru A. Balaa & Taro Takimotob, 2017. "Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(1), pages 25-48, March.
  38. Alexander, Carol & Lazar, Emese & Stanescu, Silvia, 2021. "Analytic moments for GJR-GARCH (1, 1) processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-124.
  39. Hong Shaopeng, 2020. "Generalized Autoregressive Score asymmetric Laplace Distribution and Extreme Downward Risk Prediction," Papers 2008.01277, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  40. Shijia Song & Handong Li, 2023. "A new model for forecasting VaR and ES using intraday returns aggregation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1039-1054, August.
  41. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2017. "Application of Garch Models to Estimate and Predict Financial Volatility of Daily Stock Returns in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 88309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Pierluigi Vallarino, 2024. "Dynamic kernel models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-082/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  43. Ryoko Ito, 2016. "Asymptotic Theory for Beta-t-GARCH," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1607, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  44. Bernardina Algieri, 2021. "Fast & furious: Do psychological and legal factors affect commodity price volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 980-1017, April.
  45. Roy Cerqueti & Massimiliano Giacalone & Raffaele Mattera, 2020. "Skewed non-Gaussian GARCH models for cryptocurrencies volatility modelling," Papers 2004.11674, arXiv.org.
  46. Ayala Astrid & Blazsek Szabolcs & Escribano Alvaro, 2023. "Anticipating extreme losses using score-driven shape filters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(4), pages 449-484, September.
  47. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "The role of the carbon market in relation to the cryptocurrency market: Only diversification or more?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  48. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris & Catania, Leopoldo, 2018. "Forecasting risk with Markov-switching GARCH models:A large-scale performance study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 733-747.
  49. Zhang, Guofu & Liu, Wei, 2018. "Analysis of the international propagation of contagion between oil and stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 469-486.
  50. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Seong-Min Yoon, 2019. "OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(4), pages 1-23, December.
  51. Alanya-Beltran, Willy, 2022. "Modelling stock returns volatility with dynamic conditional score models and random shifts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  52. Bharat Kumar Meher & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Latasha Mohapatra & Adel M. Sarea, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Price Volatility of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Listed on Multi Commodity Exchange of India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 422-431.
  53. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Baker, Paul L. & Platanakis, Emmanouil, 2024. "A False Discovery Rate approach to optimal volatility forecasting model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 881-902.
  54. Escribano, Alvaro & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2018. "Equation-by-equation estimation of multivariate periodic electricity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 287-298.
  55. Parley Ruogu Yang, 2021. "Forecasting high-frequency financial time series: an adaptive learning approach with the order book data," Papers 2103.00264, arXiv.org.
  56. Gao, Chun-Ting & Zhou, Xiao-Hua, 2016. "Forecasting VaR and ES using dynamic conditional score models and skew Student distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 216-223.
  57. Andrew Harvey & Rutger-Jan Lange, 2015. "Modeling the Interactions between Volatility and Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  58. Sonia Benito Muela & Carmen López-Martín & Mª Ángeles Navarro, 2017. "The Role of the Skewed Distributions in the Framework of Extreme Value Theory (EVT)," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 88-102, November.
  59. Georgios Bampinas & Panagiotis Konstantinou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "Reassessing the inflation uncertainty‐inflation relationship in the tails," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 508-534, October.
  60. Santosh Kumar & Md. Alamgir & Birau Ramona & Bharat Kumar Meher & Abhishek Anand & Nioata (Chireac) Roxana-Mihaela & Cirjan Nadia Tudora, 2024. "Evaluating The Performance Of Garch Family Models In Estimating Investment Risk And Volatility: A Comparative Analysis Of Sensex And Nifty Index In India," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 222-238, June.
  61. Ito, R., 2016. "Spline-DCS for Forecasting Trade Volume in High-Frequency Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1606, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  62. M. Caivano & A. Harvey, 2013. "Two EGARCH models and one fat tail," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1326, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  63. Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara & Othman Kadmiri & Bruno Saussereau, 2022. "Portmanteau test for the asymmetric power GARCH model when the power is unknown," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 755-793, June.
  64. Gao, Yang & Li, Yangyang & Wang, Yaojun, 2021. "Risk spillover and network connectedness analysis of China’s green bond and financial markets: Evidence from financial events of 2015–2020," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  65. Andrew Harvey & Rutger‐Jan Lange, 2018. "Modeling the Interactions between Volatility and Returns using EGARCH‐M," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 909-919, November.
  66. Szabolcs Blazsek & Luis Antonio Monteros, 2017. "Dynamic conditional score models of degrees of freedom: filtering with score-driven heavy tails," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(53), pages 5426-5440, November.
  67. Bram van Os, 2023. "Information-Theoretic Time-Varying Density Modeling," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-037/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  68. Tobias Eckernkemper & Bastian Gribisch, 2021. "Intraday conditional value at risk: A periodic mixed‐frequency generalized autoregressive score approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 883-910, August.
  69. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
  70. Trucíos, Carlos, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin risk measures: A robust approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 836-847.
  71. Afees A. Salisu, 2016. "Modelling Oil Price Volatility with the Beta-Skew-t-EGARCH Framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1315-1324.
  72. Yingying Xu & Donald Lien, 2022. "Forecasting volatilities of oil and gas assets: A comparison of GAS, GARCH, and EGARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 259-278, March.
  73. David Ardia & Kris Boudt & Leopoldo Catania, 2016. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models in R: The GAS Package," Papers 1609.02354, arXiv.org.
  74. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2018. "The Log-GARCH Model via ARMA Representations," MPRA Paper 100386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Kumar SANTOSH & Meher Kumar BHARAT & Ramona BIRAU & Mircea Laurentiu SIMION & Anand ABHISHEK & Singh MANOHAR, 2023. "Quantifying Long-Term Volatility for Developed Stock Markets: An Empirical Case Study Using PGARCH Model on Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 61-68.
  76. Stephen Thiele, 2020. "Modeling the conditional distribution of financial returns with asymmetric tails," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 46-60, January.
  77. Astrid Ayala & Szabolcs Blazsek, 2018. "Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(37), pages 4005-4023, August.
  78. Trottier, Denis-Alexandre & Ardia, David, 2016. "Moments of standardized Fernandez–Steel skewed distributions: Applications to the estimation of GARCH-type models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 311-316.
  79. Huang, Zhigang & Zhang, Weilan, 2024. "Exploring the Spillover effects of tail risk fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate—The time-frequency and quantile connectivity perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
  80. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2016. "Comparison of Value-at-Risk models using the MCS approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 579-608, June.
  81. Szabolcs Blazsek & Han-Chiang Ho, 2017. "Markov regime-switching Beta--EGARCH," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(47), pages 4793-4805, October.
  82. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Al-Freedi, Ajab & Heng, Zin Yau, 2018. "Forecasting volatility in the biofuel feedstock markets in the presence of structural breaks: A comparison of alternative distribution functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 307-333.
  83. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," Working Papers halshs-01148746, HAL.
  84. Andrea Guizzardi & Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Enzo D’Innocenzo, 2024. "Reverse engineering the last-minute on-line pricing practices: an application to hotels," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 33(3), pages 943-971, July.
  85. Bala A. Dahiru & Pam W. Jim & Kalu N. Nwonyuku, 2017. "Equity markets volatility dynamics in developed and newly emerging economies: EGARCH-with-skewed-t density approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2394-2412.
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