IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/5485.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unemployment duration in Germany: individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment

Author

Listed:
  • Arntz, Melanie
  • Wilke, Ralf A.

Abstract

Recent labor market reforms in Germany aim, among other things, at reducing unemployment by restricting passive unemployment measures, emphasizing local labor market policies and re-structuring public employment services. This paper uses extensive individual administrative and regional aggregate data to explore the extent to which these factors are likely to contribute to the shortening of unemployment duration. For this purpose, we estimate a semi-parametric duration model with three competing exit states. Our results suggest that changes in the unemployment compensation system rather than local employment policies and administrative restructuring efforts meet expected labor market outcomes. In addition, determinants of the length of unemployment vary across exit states.

Suggested Citation

  • Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A., 2006. "Unemployment duration in Germany: individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24548/1/dp06092.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerard J. van den Berg & Bas van der Klaauw, 2006. "Counseling And Monitoring Of Unemployed Workers: Theory And Evidence From A Controlled Social Experiment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 895-936, August.
    2. Rafael Lalive & Jan Van Ours & Josef Zweimuller, 2006. "How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1009-1038.
    3. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    4. Damm, Anna Piil & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants, Part II: Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 925, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Arntz, Melanie, 2005. "The Geographical Mobility of Unemployed Workers: Evidence from West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-34, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Richard Rogerson & Robert Shimer & Randall Wright, 2004. "Search-Theoretic Models of the Labor Market-A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 27-39, January.
    8. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139, Elsevier.
    9. Carling, Kenneth & Edin, Per-Anders & Harkman, Anders & Holmlund, Bertil, 1996. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 313-334, March.
    10. Kent Eliasson & Urban Lindgren & Olle Westerlund, 2003. "Geographical Labour Mobility: Migration or Commuting?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 827-837.
    11. Dale T. Mortensen, 1990. "A Structural Model of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Effects on the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Yoram Weiss & Gideon Fishelson (ed.), Advances in the Theory and Measurement of Unemployment, chapter 3, pages 57-81, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Tomi Kyyrä & Ralf A. Wilke, 2007. "Reduction in the Long-Term Unemployment of the Elderly: A Success Story from Finland," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 154-182, March.
    13. Elke Lüdemann & Ralf Wilke & Xuan Zhang, 2006. "Censored quantile regressions and the length of unemployment periods in West Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1003-1024, November.
    14. Kemmerling, Achim & Bruttel, Oliver, 2005. "New politics in German labour market policy? The implications of the recent Hartz reforms for the German welfare state," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment SP I 2005-101, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    15. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Unemployment Duration Competing and Defective Risks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    16. Damm, Anna Piil & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants, Part I: Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 924, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Melanie Arntz & Ralf A. Wilke, 2007. "An application of cartographic area interpolation to German administrative data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 91(2), pages 159-180, August.
    18. McCall, B P & McCall, J J, 1987. "A Sequential Study of Migration and Job Search," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 452-476, October.
    19. Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A. & Winterhager, Henrik, 2006. "Regionenmatching im Rahmen der Evaluation der Experimentierungsklausel des § 6c SGB II: Methodische Vorgehensweise und Ergebnisse," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-061, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Viktor Steiner, 2001. "Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
    21. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    22. Ridder, Geert & Tunali, Insan, 1999. "Stratified partial likelihood estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 193-232, October.
    23. Abbring, Jaap H., 2002. "Stayers versus defecting movers: a note on the identification of defective duration models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 327-331, February.
    24. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Evaluating the Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Program," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 569-606, June.
    25. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 193-205.
    26. Jacobi, Lena & Kluve, Jochen, 2006. "Before and After the Hartz Reforms: The Performance of Active Labour Market Policy in Germany," RWI Discussion Papers 41, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    27. Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf Wilke, 2006. "Using quantile regression for duration analysis," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 105-120, March.
    28. repec:rre:publsh:v:34:y:2004:i:2:p:120-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. repec:zbw:rwidps:0041 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Donald Haurin & Kala Sridhar, 2003. "The impact of local unemployment rates on reservation wages and the duration of search for a job," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1469-1476.
    31. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "New insights on unemployment duration and post unemployment earnings in Germany: censored Box-Cox quantile regression at work," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-007, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    32. Olle Westerlund, 1998. "Internal Migration in Sweden: The Effects of Mobility Grants and Regional Labour Market Conditions," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 363-388, July.
    33. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    34. Fitzenberger Bernd & Wilke Ralf A., 2010. "Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 336-366, August.
    35. Fallick, Bruce Chelimsky, 1992. "Job Security and Job Search in More Than One Labor Market," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(4), pages 742-745, October.
    36. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    37. Blien, Uwe & Hirschenauer, Franziska & Arendt, Manfred & Braun, Hans Jürgen & Gunst, Dieter-Michael & Kilcioglu, Sibel & Kleinschmidt, Helmut & Musati, Martina & Roß, Hermann & Vollkommer, Dieter & We, 2004. "Typisierung von Bezirken der Agenturen für Arbeit (Classification of employment office areas)," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 37(2), pages 146-175.
    38. Lindeboom, Maarten & van Ours, Jan C & Renes, Gusta, 1994. "Matching Employers and Workers: An Empirical Analysis on the Effectiveness of Search," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 45-67, January.
    39. Knut Roed & Tao Zhang, 2003. "Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 190-206, January.
    40. Lindgren, Urban & Westerlund, Olle, 2003. "Labour market programmes and geographical mobility: migration and commuting among programme participants and openly unemployed," Working Paper Series 2003:6, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    41. Sarah Brown & John Sessions, 1997. "A Profile of UK Unemployment: Regional versus Demographic Influences," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 351-366.
    42. Hummel, Elisabeth & Jacobebbinghaus, Peter & Kohlmann, Annette & Oertel, Martina & Wübbeke, Christina & Ziegerer, Manfred, 2005. "Stichprobe der Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien : IEBS 1.0, Handbuch-Version 1.0.0 (Integrated Employment Biographies Sample IEBS 1.0)," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 200506_de, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    43. Thomas, Jonathan M, 1998. "The Role of Selective Job Search in UK Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 646-664, May.
    44. S. C. Salop, 1973. "Systematic Job Search and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(2), pages 191-201.
    45. Jacobi, Lena & Kluve, Jochen, 2006. "Before and After the Hartz Reforms: The Performance of Active Labour Market Policy in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2100, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    46. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. "Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    47. Kettunen, Juha, 2002. "Labour mobility of unemployed workers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 359-380, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arntz, Melanie, 2005. "The Geographical Mobility of Unemployed Workers: Evidence from West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-34, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Virve Ollikainen & Tomi Kyyrä, 2006. "To Search or Not to Search? The Effects of UI Benefit Extension for the Elderly Unemployed," Discussion Papers 400, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    3. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    4. Kyyrä, Tomi & Ollikainen, Virve, 2008. "To search or not to search? The effects of UI benefit extension for the older unemployed," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2048-2070, October.
    5. Tito Boeri & Jan van Ours, 2013. "The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets: Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10142.
    6. Rafael Lalive & Jan Van Ours & Josef Zweimuller, 2006. "How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1009-1038.
    7. Kyyrä, Tomi & Wilke, Ralf A., 2006. "Reduction in the Long-Term Unemployment of the Elderly: A Success Story from Finland Revised," Discussion Papers 396, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Arntz, Melanie & Lo, Simon M. S. & Wilke, Ralf A., 2008. "Bounds analysis of competing risks : a nonparametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration in Germany (Revised version of the FDZ Methodenbericht No. 04/2007)," FDZ Methodenreport 200806_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Bernd Fitzenberger & Ralf A. Wilke, 2010. "New Insights into Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 794-826, December.
    10. repec:pri:cepsud:158krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Ríos, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012528, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Bennmarker, Helge & Skans, Oskar Nordström & Vikman, Ulrika, 2013. "Workfare for the old and long-term unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 25-34.
    13. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "New insights on unemployment duration and post unemployment earnings in Germany: censored Box-Cox quantile regression at work," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-007, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Ignacio Moral-Arce & Javier Martín-Román & Ángel L. Martín-Román, 2019. "Cessation of Activity Benefit for Spanish Self-employed Workers: A Heterogeneous Impact Evaluation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 231(4), pages 41-79, December.
    15. Anders Forslund & Alan Krueger, 2010. "Did Active Labor Market Policies Help Sweden Rebound from the Depression of the Early 1990s?," NBER Chapters, in: Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden, pages 159-187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Emmanuel Duguet & Florent Frémigacci & Yannick L’Horty, 2008. "Indemnisation du chômage et retour à l’emploi : un examen économétrique," Documents de recherche 08-07, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    17. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2016. "Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6262, CESifo.
    18. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    19. Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2007. "Unemployment Insurance in Welfare States: Soft Constraints and Mild Sanctions," Memorandum 13/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    20. Røed, Knut & Jensen, Peter & Thoursie, Anna, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Incentives and Institutions - A Micro-Econometric Analysis Based on Scandinavian Data," Working Paper Series 3/2002, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    21. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Ríos, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," Borradores de Economia 12528, Banco de la Republica.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    competing-risk; labor market policy; individual and regional data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.