IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w200001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Portugal
  • John T. Addison

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in the framework of a competing risks model, where the destination states are employment and inactivity. The major innovation is the use of a split-population approach to accommodate the presence of defective risks in the context of the competing risks model. Certain of the regressors that affect the conditional hazards are allowed to influence defective risks. Unobserved individual heterogeneity among the susceptible populations is also controlled for. Access to unemployment benefits and age are accorded special emphasis because of their influence on defective risks and escape rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Portugal & John T. Addison, 2000. "Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks," Working Papers w200001, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp200001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bart L. W. Cockx, 2000. "Analysis Of Transition Data By The Minimum-Chi-Square Method: An Application To Welfare Spells In Belgium," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 392-405, August.
    2. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    3. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    5. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    6. Pudney, Stephen & Thomas, Jonathan, 1995. "Specification Tests for the Competing Risks Duration Model: An Application to Unemployment Duration and Sectoral Movement," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 323-347, August.
    7. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2002. "Job search methods and outcomes," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 505-533, July.
    8. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 1998. "What Hides Behind an Umemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 6636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Wiji Narendranathan & Mark B. Stewart, 1993. "Modelling the Probability of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models with Flexible Base‐Line Hazards," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 42(1), pages 63-83, March.
    11. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    12. Christopher J. Flinn, 1986. "Econometric Analysis of CPS-Type Unemployment Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(4), pages 456-484.
    13. Portugal, Pedro & Addison, John T, 1995. "Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 205-227, May.
    14. Melkersson, Maria, 1999. "Unemployment duration and heterogenous search behavior among Swedish disabled workers," Working Paper Series 1999:5, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    15. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    16. Fallick, Bruce Chelimsky, 1991. "Unemployment Insurance and the Rate of Re-employment of Displaced Workers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 228-235, May.
    17. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ridder, Geert & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "A cross-country comparison of labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2002:22, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    19. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 717-735, December.
    2. Pedro Portugal & John T. Addison, 2008. "Six Ways To Leave Unemployment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 393-419, September.
    3. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    4. Virve Ollikainen & Tomi Kyyrä, 2006. "To Search or Not to Search? The Effects of UI Benefit Extension for the Elderly Unemployed," Discussion Papers 400, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    5. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2012. "Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 646-675, October.
    6. Kupets, Olga, 2006. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 228-247, June.
    7. Richard Rogerson & Robert Shimer & Randall Wright, 2004. "Search-Theoretic Models of the Labor Market-A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March.
    9. Kyyrä, Tomi & Ollikainen, Virve, 2008. "To search or not to search? The effects of UI benefit extension for the older unemployed," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2048-2070, October.
    10. Taylor, Mark P & Böheim, René, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.
    12. Van de Gucht, Linda M. & Moore, William T., 1998. "Predicting the duration and reversal probability of leveraged buyouts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 299-315, October.
    13. Nicola Pavoni & G. L. Violante, 2007. "Optimal Welfare-to-Work Programs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 283-318.
    14. Francisco J. Gil & Maria Jesus Martin & Angel Serrat, 1994. "Movilidad en el mercado de trabajo en España: un análisis econométrico de duración con riesgos en competencia," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(3), pages 517-537, September.
    15. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2011. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2873-2898, December.
    16. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
    17. You, Jing & Wang, Shaoyang, 2018. "Unemployment duration and job-match quality in urban China: The dynamic impact of 2008 Labor Contract Law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 220-233.
    18. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1998. "Equilibrium unemployment insurance," Economics Working Papers 605, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
    19. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    20. Violante, Giovanni & Hornstein, Andreas, 2006. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.